11/11/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: There has been no shortage of news affecting the cattle market to begin this week. After the markets closed on Friday, President Trump instructed the Department of Justice to open an investigation into the meat packing industry. This news came with mixed reviews from many traders as the President was removing the blame of high beef prices from the ranchers and feedlots, but was again putting beef into the news and continuing to drive home his plan to lower the price of beef. Regardless of who he is blaming for the high price of beef, the end goal is to see cheaper beef available to the consumer. Later in the weekend, President Trump announced that he is considering a round of stimulus money to most Americans. That same day news broke that the government would most likely be reopening later this week and in turn reinstate SNAP payments. The cattle complex opened sharply lower on Monday before finishing the day limit higher. Live Cattle finished lower today after spending a majority of the day trading higher. The cash market continued to trade lower into the end of last week with 225 being paid in the North late in the day on Friday. There has not been any cash movement up to this point of the week, but fat cattle in the sale barns appear to be lower than a week ago. Boxed beef was higher this morning with choice quoted at $380.42, up $3.10 and select up $0.70 to $360.40. All of the publicity surrounding the price of beef has yet to affect the price of boxed beef or the price of beef at the meat counter. Last week’s kill was revised 8,000 head higher to 560,000 head. Expectations for this week’s slaughter is in the 560,000-565,000 head range. The packers have ramped up their kill speeds as their profitability has improved and they are trying to meet holiday demand.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished the day mixed after being sharply higher most of the day. The November contract continues to lead the complex as it remains at a discount to the cash index ahead of next Thursday’s expiration. The CME Feeder Cattle index continues to drift lower and is currently quoted at $342.76, $5.10 above the November contract. Open interest with in the Feeder Cattle Complex has stabilized the past few days after a giant decrease over the last three weeks. Feeder Cattle futures erased nearly all of their gains since the announcement of the latest closure of the Mexican border on July 10 when the January contract closed at 308.775.  Over the course of the next three months, the futures traded up to 380.200 before the three week selloff that pushed the market to last week’s low of 311.400. Feeder Cattle continue to be the leaders of the cattle complex as many traders feared the reopening of the Mexican border. The opening of the border would not make an immediate impact to Feeder Cattle supplies and would take even longer to affect Live Cattle supplies, but more cattle in the feed yards would eventually change the fundamentals of current cattle and meat supplies.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures traded sharply higher to start the week with the nearby December contract finishing 3.375 higher while the deferred contracts were up 3.200 on Monday. Today the futures were narrowly mixed with the December contract losing 0.425, settling at 82.350. The news over the weekend of the senate reaching a deal to move a vote to the house to reopen the government was beneficial as meat is the number one grocery purchased with SNAP benefits. The pork cutout also climbed back above the $100 mark on Monday with the afternoon report being quoted at $100.22. This morning’s report showed a decrease of $0.66 to $99.56. Cash hogs were lower as well on this morning’s report and showed the national average at $82.19. This week looks to be another large slaughter total with estimates ranging from 2,640,000-2,690,000 head as Saturday harvests continue to remain strong.

Corn: Corn futures have finished higher both days this week as demand continues to stay strong. Last week’s ethanol report showed a weekly record of ethanol production and this week’s export inspections were an 18-year high for the week. Friday, the USDA will release their monthly WASDE report after missing last month due to the government shutdown. Pre-report estimates are for the average corn yield to be reduced 2.7 bushel per acre and total production to be 257 million bushels smaller. U.S. carryout does not look to change much as export sales have not been released during the government shutdown. Technically, Corn futures are stuck between overhead resistance and downside support. This week’s WASDE report will most likely give the market some news to break out of the current sideways channel.