11/28/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished the week on a positive note after starting the week limit lower. Volatility has been extreme as traders navigate negative headlines while weighing out the bullish fundamentals. The majority of the cash trade took place earlier this week with the North trading cattle from 208-210 and the South selling cattle at 215. Today, there were some cattle that traded at 220 in the South. The futures being higher caused the packers to increase their bids to get cattle bought, and the futures continued to reacted positively to that news. Boxed beef was lower for the week as choice saw a $4.72 decline to $366.89 and select was down $8.04 to $350.38. The packers have increased their kill the past three weeks now that their margins have improved, but the higher supply of beef has caused boxed beef prices to work lower. This week’s slaughter is estimated at 501,000. Last week’s slaughter of 585,000 was the sixth highest weekly total for 2025, and larger kill weeks are expected throughout the end of 2025 as margins have moved back in favor of the packer.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures have traded limit higher each of the past two sessions but could not finish up the limit. Volume within the Feeder Cattle complex was extremely light today due to the holiday week. The nearby January contract finished the week with a gain of 9.750 after starting the week down the 9.250 limit on Monday. Over the course of the final three days this week, the January contract gained 20.050 and finished above technical resistance levels. The CME Feeder Cattle index has worked lower to meet the futures. Currently, the CME Feeder Cattle index is at $329.88 through Tuesday’s sales. Feeder Cattle remain in strong demand as the Mexican border remains closed. Secretary Rollins was interviewed on a podcast released earlier this week and indicated that the U.S. is not close to reopening the border. She continued that when the border is opened, it will most likely only be one port. This would allow Feeder Cattle to be imported from Mexico but would be at a very slow pace.

Lean Hogs: Despite trading higher most of the day the Lean Hog complex closed mostly lower, but still saw decent gains for the week. The December contract did manage to close 0.175 higher today at 80.600, which is a gain of 2.800 for the week and now only a $2.21 discount to the Lean Hog index which is at $82.81. The pork cutout continues to remain firm as it gained another $0.50 on this morning’s report raising it to $94.75, the highest level since November 18. Spain confirmed two cases of ASF in two wild boars on Wednesday. While Spain is the EU’s largest producer of pork and pork exports, this could become significant news if cases are found in some of the country’s domestic herds, possibly leading to more U.S. exports.

Corn: Corn futures finished the final three days of the week higher after posting new lows for the move on Monday. The nearby contracts have climbed back above the 20-day MA and found resistance at the 200-day MA. Corn futures traded between these two lines for the better part of a month before breaking out to the upside for two days in the middle of November, and then fell below the support four days later. Corn demand remains strong as both ethanol production and exports impress traders. This week’s Ethanol Production Report showed an increase of 22,000 barrels a day from the week prior and no change from a year ago. Flash sales of corn continue to hit the market as the USDA continues to catch up on data from when the government was shutdown. Feed demand will be the question mark for some time to come as cattle numbers continue to fall, and implied feed usage is currently overstated.