11/7/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures were sharply higher for most of the morning before losing steam and trading negative in the middle of the day. The futures found strength in the last half hour and finished the day nearly three dollars higher across all months. The Live Cattle complex traded through the highs from Thursday but could not find additional buying at those levels. Volatility within the cattle complex has been high all week as beef and cattle remain in the headlines, and traders fear the unknown of what is coming next. Computer and algorithm traders have taken over and have caused massive swings throughout the week as the market is very thin with orders. Cash cattle trade took place in the middle of the week and was lower across all regions compared to a week ago. The North traded at mostly 228 but there were cattle that traded at 229 and 230, as many feedlots took advantage of the improved basis. The South received 232 for the majority of their cattle. Boxed beef finished the week mixed with little price movement. For the week, choice lost $1.24 at $377.43 while select gained $2.97 and is currently at $362.20. The stabilized boxed beef prices along with the lower cash trade has improved packer margins and should entice the packers to increase slaughter. This week’s cattle slaughter is estimated at 552,000 head which is 3,000 head less than last week.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished the day higher after another week of steep losses. The most actively traded January contract lost 12.325/cwt this week and finished 20.050/cwt off of the highs from Tuesday. Since the January contract posted a contract high of 380.200 on October 16, the market had lost 68.800/cwt at this week’s low. Volatility and lack of liquidity have been the theme this week within the Feeder Cattle complex. The CME Feeder Cattle index has worked lower as well, but not to the extent of the futures market. Currently, the index is at $347.82 which is $21.42 above the nearby November contract. Traders are caught between negative sentiment in the futures market and the cash market that is slow to work lower. The futures market is cautious to work higher as everyone fears the next press release from Washington, DC, along with a poor technical picture at current levels. The cash market continues to hold higher than the futures market currently supports and has not corrected lower. The feeling within the futures complex is that rallies will be sold and create headwind for long sustained rallies. Up to this point in 2025, all moves lower were met with buying and that is what pushed us to new all-time highs less than a month ago.

Lean Hogs: The nearby December contract finished 0.425 higher today but will finish with a 1.875 loss for the week. The deferred contracts traded lower today with the July contract finishing down 0.475 at 96.075. The support for the nearby contracts is supported by the Lean Hog index and cash hog markets. The index continues on a slow decline, as Monday it was quoted at $91.19 and today’s release was at $90.60, a net loss of $0.59 for the week. Cash hogs continue to trade in the $84-$85 area. On Wednesday, the national average jumped to $86.00 but was quoted lower again yesterday at $84.31. The pork cutout finally fell below $100.00 on Tuesday and was quoted at $99.75 this morning. With the government shutdown continuing, the CFTC Report along with export numbers are not being released, leaving the Lean Hog complex struggling to find fresh news.

Corn: Corn futures could not trade through overhead resistance and lost nearly 10 cents the final two days of the week. News within the grain complex continues to be quiet with government reports being delayed due to the shutdown. Next Friday, the USDA will release their monthly WASDE report regardless if the government is back open or not. This will give the industry the first look at 2025 production and updates to demand and carryout since the end of September. Weekly ethanol production numbers released this week marked the highest weekly production total ever, taking out the previous weekly record that was set in June. Total production for the week was 1,123,000 barrels per day, an increase of 32,000 barrels a day from the week prior. Ethanol demand has remained very strong and margins for ethanol producers has remained positive for most of 2025. Without daily flash sales of exports getting reported since the government is shutdown, it has been beneficial for the corn market to see continued demand from the ethanol sector.