12/12/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures rounded out the week lower after pushing to new highs for the move on Thursday. The cash market was higher again this week and surprised many by beating expectations. The North traded cattle between 225 and 230 while the South traded mostly at 230. Another week of $5-10 gains in both regions has now pushed the market $20+ above the lows set just two weeks ago. Feedlots continue to fight the basis as the futures market has rallied higher with the stronger cash market. Boxed beef was lower again this week. Choice lost $5.42 on the week and is currently at $357.26 which is a six-month low. Choice was also lower, declining $4.70 since last Friday and is now at $344.78. The packers have increased chain speed the past few weeks adding more supply of beef to the market. Last week’s kill of 600,000 head was the third highest weekly total of 2025, and that was followed up with 596,000 this week. Most cattle bought this week will be scheduled for slaughter the week of December 29 which means next week’s buying will push us into 2026. Shortened kill weeks around the upcoming holidays may be the saving grace for the boxed beef market.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished the week essentially unchanged after three days of very narrow gains and losses. Thursday, the futures opened sharply higher and spent the entire day in higher territory before finishing the day sharply lower on Friday. The CME Feeder Cattle index is currently at $346.77 which is $3.04 higher than a week ago. The higher cash market, higher Live Cattle futures, and stagnant Corn market are all helping support the cash Feeder Cattle markets as feedlots try to fill their pens. Open interest increased this week after setting new lows for 2025 earlier this month. After Thursday’s trade, open interest in the Feeder Cattle complex was at 65,995 contracts which is roughly an 8% increase from the lows. There has been limited new information surrounding the Mexican border, but the general consensus across the industry is that there will be some sort of opening this winter.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures finished the day higher and have now finished higher seven of the last eight days. The pork cutout has worked higher all week and was quoted at $98.84 on Thursday afternoon, which was $1.57 higher. This is the highest level since November 10 when the pork cutout finished above $100 for a single day. There have been no updates out of Spain in regards to their current ASF situation although the cash hog market in the country is down over 20% in the past two weeks. The Lean Hog index is currently at $82.57 and has been pulled higher by the higher cutout market. The cash markets that had been working lower were reported higher yesterday afternoon, but are still over $10 lower than the same time a month ago.

Corn: Corn futures finished the week under pressure and near the lows for the week after failing to put in new highs during the week. Each day the futures failed to take out the previous day’s highs and that led to fund selling to end the week. Today’s move lower pushed the futures through the 20-day MA and put in a new low for the month of December. Export sales were good this week, along with a sale to an unknown destination which many are speculating is China. If China comes into the market and buys U.S. corn, it would be a great surprise to the market. China is currently sitting on a 12-year low of Corn stocks and their consumption is larger than their current production. Brazil received good rains this week and the moisture looks to stay in their forecast for the next six to ten days. Argentina is 59% completed with their Corn planting and the crop is currently rated at 86% good to excellent, nearly 50% better than the 3-year average.