Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded in an extremely tight range compared to the last few months and finished the day just slightly higher. Cash trade has been nonexistent up to this point of the week but the feedlots will be asking higher money than a week ago. Most packers are bought out to 2026, especially with the holiday shortened weeks ahead the next two weeks. Over the last two weeks, the packers have sped up their chain speed and posted some of the highest weekly kill totals for the year. The increased slaughter totals have put pressure on the boxed beef markets, so many are wondering why the packers are pushing the kill as hard as they are. With the holidays ahead, and smaller slaughter totals the next few weeks, it would appear that the packers needed product to fill the freezers to get to the new year. This morning choice was quoted $0.78 higher at $360.24 and select was up $1.73 to $349.03. Packer margins have definitely deteriorated with the decreased price of boxed beef along with the higher cash market over the past few weeks.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures continued their push higher today following the CME Feeder Cattle index that has now been higher ten of the past twelve days. The nearby January contract has been playing catch up since its low posted on November 25 and has now gained 43.800 from that low, finishing higher 11 of the 15 days during that stretch. The current CME Feeder Cattle index is $348.85 and a $5.52 premium to the current January futures contract. Open interest within the Feeder Cattle complex began to hold somewhat steady near the 65,000 area. This is near the lows for 2025 but remains high compared to historical levels and the past years.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures failed to post new highs for the move today and are nearing the 100-day MA in the nearby contracts. Mexico announced yesterday that they are opening an investigation into U.S. pork imports after their domestic producers are alleging unfair pricing. Currently, U.S. hog prices are 50% cheaper than Mexican hog prices and this is the leading reason for the big import volumes from the United States. Mexico has risen to the top destination for U.S. pork in recent years as their needs have increased and China has moved away. This morning China announced they would be placing duties on EU pork for the next five year. The EU is the biggest supplier of pork to China and these duties will move the tariff rates closer to what the U.S. tariffs are into China.
Corn: Corn futures have finished lower three days in a row. Some of the uptrend lines have been violated on the charts, while the market is approaching other important technical spots. Crude oil has broken to new lows today and has not benefited the corn market over the past few days. Export inspections that were released yesterday showed another week of good corn shipments. Top destinations continue to be Mexico, Japan, and Spain. There have been multiple flash sales of corn to “unknown” over the past week and many are speculating this could be China. Currently, the grain markets as a whole are failing to find bullish news to stop the downward move or at least stabilize at these levels.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
Mar
436.50
3.25
CHI Wheat
Mar
509.50
11.25
KC Wheat
Mar
505.00
7.00
Soybeans
Jan
1062.75
9.00
Soy Oil
Jan
48.36
1.12
Soy Meal
Mar
306.10
0.50
Live Cattle
Dec
231.150
0.325
Feeder Cattle
Jan
343.325
3.400
Lean Hogs
Feb
84.775
0.925
Crude Oil
Jan
55.20
1.62
Ch Cutout
360.24
0.78
Sel Cutout
349.03
1.73
Feeder Index
348.85
1.48
Pork Cutout
98.89
0.68
Dollar Index
98.169
0.1400
DOW
48,110
306
National Corn Basis
-40.55
0.22
National Bean Basis
-69.09
0.41
Dates to Remember
December 19- Cattle on Feed Report
December 23- Hogs and Pigs Report
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
84.775
82.500
2.275
83.550
1.225
National Cash
72.68
70.04
2.64
79.39
6.71
Index
82.99
81.84
1.15
83.98
0.99
Cutout
98.89
95.51
3.38
95.27
3.62
IA/SMN Cash
71.68
71.18
0.50
79.65
7.97
IA/SMN Weights
295.10
293.80
1.30
289.10
6.00
Slaughter
2,727,000
2,697,000
30,000
2,560,497
166,503
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
228.26
195.10
South Cash
230.00
191.04
North Steer Basis
-2.00
2.16
Choice Boxes
360.24
362.97
2.74
317.37
42.87
Select Boxes
349.03
349.92
0.89
289.57
59.49
Spread
11.21
13.05
1.84
27.80
16.59
Carcass Weights
896
897
1
870
26
Slaughter
596,000
600,000
4,000
609,630
13,630
FC Index
348.85
344.50
4.35
261.73
87.12
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
N/A
$191.00
KS
$230.00
$191.04
NE
$228.26
$195.10
IA/MN
$227.58
$195.11
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 11/25/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
92,911
4,420
-135,389
1,401
320,255
846
Feeder Cattle
16,048
1,382
-7,812
242
65,720
69
Lean Hogs
50,193
7,795
-113,647
6,676
297,137
2,618
Corn
-10,872
48,999
-240,382
30,577
1,512,331
8,625
Soybeans
214,289
15,336
-336,206
2,357
899,208
15,485
Live Cattle Markets
February Live Cattle failed near the 100-day MA again today. Resistance is at 231.775 and then the 100-day MA of 231.875. Support is at 228.700 followed by the 50-day MA of 228.500.
Feeder Cattle Markets
January Feeder Cattle held the 100-day MA support level today. Support is at the 100-day MA of 341.125 and then 337.700. Resistance is at 345.250 and then 348.175.
Lean Hogs Markets
February Lean Hogs failed to post a new high for the move. Resistance is at 85.075 and then the 100-day MA of 85.375. Support is at 82.400 followed by the 20-day 81.225.
Corn Markets
March Corn has finished lower three days in a row. Support is at 434 1/2 and then 432 1/2. Resistance 441 3/4 followed by the 20-day MA of 443 1/4.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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12/16/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded in an extremely tight range compared to the last few months and finished the day just slightly higher. Cash trade has been nonexistent up to this point of the week but the feedlots will be asking higher money than a week ago. Most packers are bought out to 2026, especially with the holiday shortened weeks ahead the next two weeks. Over the last two weeks, the packers have sped up their chain speed and posted some of the highest weekly kill totals for the year. The increased slaughter totals have put pressure on the boxed beef markets, so many are wondering why the packers are pushing the kill as hard as they are. With the holidays ahead, and smaller slaughter totals the next few weeks, it would appear that the packers needed product to fill the freezers to get to the new year. This morning choice was quoted $0.78 higher at $360.24 and select was up $1.73 to $349.03. Packer margins have definitely deteriorated with the decreased price of boxed beef along with the higher cash market over the past few weeks.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures continued their push higher today following the CME Feeder Cattle index that has now been higher ten of the past twelve days. The nearby January contract has been playing catch up since its low posted on November 25 and has now gained 43.800 from that low, finishing higher 11 of the 15 days during that stretch. The current CME Feeder Cattle index is $348.85 and a $5.52 premium to the current January futures contract. Open interest within the Feeder Cattle complex began to hold somewhat steady near the 65,000 area. This is near the lows for 2025 but remains high compared to historical levels and the past years.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures failed to post new highs for the move today and are nearing the 100-day MA in the nearby contracts. Mexico announced yesterday that they are opening an investigation into U.S. pork imports after their domestic producers are alleging unfair pricing. Currently, U.S. hog prices are 50% cheaper than Mexican hog prices and this is the leading reason for the big import volumes from the United States. Mexico has risen to the top destination for U.S. pork in recent years as their needs have increased and China has moved away. This morning China announced they would be placing duties on EU pork for the next five year. The EU is the biggest supplier of pork to China and these duties will move the tariff rates closer to what the U.S. tariffs are into China.
Corn: Corn futures have finished lower three days in a row. Some of the uptrend lines have been violated on the charts, while the market is approaching other important technical spots. Crude oil has broken to new lows today and has not benefited the corn market over the past few days. Export inspections that were released yesterday showed another week of good corn shipments. Top destinations continue to be Mexico, Japan, and Spain. There have been multiple flash sales of corn to “unknown” over the past week and many are speculating this could be China. Currently, the grain markets as a whole are failing to find bullish news to stop the downward move or at least stabilize at these levels.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
December 19- Cattle on Feed Report
December 23- Hogs and Pigs Report
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 11/25/2025
Live Cattle Markets
February Live Cattle failed near the 100-day MA again today. Resistance is at 231.775 and then the 100-day MA of 231.875. Support is at 228.700 followed by the 50-day MA of 228.500.
Feeder Cattle Markets
January Feeder Cattle held the 100-day MA support level today. Support is at the 100-day MA of 341.125 and then 337.700. Resistance is at 345.250 and then 348.175.
Lean Hogs Markets
February Lean Hogs failed to post a new high for the move. Resistance is at 85.075 and then the 100-day MA of 85.375. Support is at 82.400 followed by the 20-day 81.225.
Corn Markets
March Corn has finished lower three days in a row. Support is at 434 1/2 and then 432 1/2. Resistance 441 3/4 followed by the 20-day MA of 443 1/4.