12/19/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished the week higher but did not break through overhead resistance. Cash trade this week has yet to develop in the South but the North traded at 228 on Thursday as feedlots capitalized on a positive basis. Boxed beef was slightly higher this week despite the third week in a row with a large slaughter total. Choice was quoted $3.61 higher this morning at $360.89 and select was up $3.57 to $347.54. The choice/select spread remains extremely tight for this time of year and is currently over $23 less than a year ago. Currently, the industry is seeing over 85% of cattle grade choice or better. This is mainly due to cattle being on feed longer than the industry has typically seen. Demand for hamburger and lower cuts of meat has also risen with the increased price of boxed beef in the last two years. This week’s slaughter was estimated at 587,000 which is 5,000 head lower than last week but toward the higher end of yearly totals. This afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report showed total cattle on feed in the U.S. down 2% compared to a year ago and marketings down 12% compared to last November. Total on feed counts in the South continue to lag behind a year ago while the northern states are 3% to 5% larger.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures broke through technical resistance levels this morning and are now eyeing the gaps on the charts that were left in October. The CME Feeder Cattle index continues to hold a premium to all futures contracts as many salebarns are again setting all-time record sales. Some classes of Feeder Cattle are now selling just as high as we saw at the beginning of October when the Feeder Cattle futures were trading at 380.000 and Live Cattle futures were at 250.000. Optimism for future prices, tight supplies of available Feeder Cattle, and stagnant Corn prices have all contributed to the high price of Feeder Cattle. Today’s Cattle on Feed Report showed placements for the month of November down 11% compared to a year ago. Kansas and Texas saw sharply lower placements again this month as the closure of the Mexican border continues to hamper their ability to find Feeder Cattle. Texas placements were down 17% or 60,000 head. Kansas placed 80,000 less cattle than a year ago or 20% less. Nebraska also placed 10% less cattle while Iowa placed 3% more cattle than November 2024.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures saw a slight recovery heading into the weekend and finished higher four of the five days this week. The pork cutout continues to support the complex as both domestic and export demand remain strong. The pork cutout has held above $95 for the past ten days and spent five days above $98. This is the first time that the pork cutout has traded above $98 in the month of December in history. Even with the cutout being supported, the cash markets have been softer and currently sit at new lows. The lower cash markets would indicate that there are plenty of market-ready hogs available to the packers and with the holiday-shortened kill weeks ahead, the packers are not willing to pay up to buy hogs. The USDA will release their quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report on Tuesday next week and the first Cold Storage Report since before the government shutdown.

Corn: Corn futures traded in a very tight range today as news surrounding the Corn market has been limited and the Soybean complex continues to work lower. The USDA continues to release export data and they are getting closer to getting caught up to real time. This week’s release was through November 27 and showed another good week of sales. Year-to-date Corn exports are 30% larger than the same time a year ago and well above the pace needed to meet the current USDA export goal. There has been no confirmation to the rumors that China has been buying U.S. Corn. The sales that have been marked as “unknown” destinations created speculation that China was buying U.S. corn to replenish their stocks that are currently at 12-year lows. The bottom line for the Corn market is that demand is very strong and supply is not overbearing, but it is hard to sustain a rally when the Soybean complex has found no support and continues to push to new lows.