12/23/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded lower most of the day today after Monday’s friendly reaction to the Cattle on Feed Report. Live Cattle traded their entire range in the first five minutes on Monday and could not find additional buying as the day went on. Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report was friendly with less cattle on feed and lower placements but could not give the complex a push through the technical resistance that has formed above the market. Last week’s cash averages were 228 in the North on very limited volume and that price has trickled into this week. The South has sold cattle at 229 today. Both of these prices will be a bit of a disappointment to the market from both a flat cash price and basis level point of view. Boxed beef has been mixed so far this this week as the choice/select spread continues to narrow. This morning, choice was down $3.04 to $359.83 while select was up $1.18 to $351.87. Currently, the choice/select spread is at $7.96 which is $21.27 less than the same time last year.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures pushed to new highs for the move yesterday but could not find follow-through today. The 100-day MA, that has been resistance for the complex for most of December, offered support today and most contracts finished nearly 1.500 off of their lows. The CME Feeder Cattle index continues to work higher and has now reached its highest level since the end of October. Through yesterday’s sales, the index is quoted at $353.08 which is up $1.17 from the end of last week. Sale volumes will be very limited as we head into the end of the year as many salebarns will not have sales. Last year, from December 23 until the end of the year the Feeder Cattle index fell $9.03. During the first ten days of 2025, the index increased $24.58. One year does not make a trend, but with the limited sales at the end of the year and the decrease in volume of Feeder Cattle, it is something to pay attention to as we finish 2025. The beginning of the year will bring big sales across the country with bigger volumes and increased buyer interest.

Lean Hogs: The USDA released their quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report this afternoon and showed a higher inventory than a year ago. Most all categories of hogs were higher than the pre-report estimates. All hogs and pigs were 0.6% higher than a year ago, pigs kept for breeding were down 0.9% but right in line with expectations, and marketings were 0.8% higher and 1.6% larger than expected. Pigs per litter continue to grow and are now at a new record high of 11.93 pigs per litter. Overall, this report will look bearish to the market as the amount of market ready hogs and overall hog supplies continue to grow. The pork cutout pushed to a new high for the month of December on Friday at $99.76. This is the highest level since November 10 when the Pork cutout pushed back above $100 for just one day. The national cash average continues to work lower and is currently quoted at $67.16 which is $5.52 lower than a week ago.

Corn: Corn futures have traded very tight ranges the past few sessions as light holiday trade continues to prevent much movement within the grain markets. Yesterday’s export inspection report showed another good week of corn exports. The weekly total was 68.7 million bushels and was in the middle of trade expectations but pushed corn exports to 10% ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA export goal. The USDA has increased export demand each of their last two reports and will likely need to increase that total again in January. Mexico, Japan and Spain were again at the top of the list of destinations as the three countries have been stable buyers of U.S. corn. March futures finished the day above the 200-day MA for the second day in a row for the first time since the beginning of June, helping the current technical picture and opens up the charts to make a run at the most recent highs.