12/5/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Cash cattle traded sharply higher this week and the futures market responded by posting new highs for the move each of the final four days this week. The South has yet to trade cattle this week, but current asking prices are 227 or 228 with bids of 225. The North began to trade Thursday morning at 218 with the majority of the trade taking place at 220. On Friday, there were cattle that traded in Iowa at 223 and currently, bids of 224 are being offered to feedlots. This week’s estimated slaughter is 600,000 head. This is the third largest slaughter total for 2025 as packer margins have improved pushing the packers to increase their chain speed. The larger kill totals will hamper boxed beef prices moving forward as more supply of meat will be available to the retailer and consumer. This morning, choice was quoted at $362.68, down $4.21 on the week while select is at $349.48 down $0.90 for the week. The beginning of next week will be a fight between the technicals and fundamentals within the cattle complex as we have reached many points of overhead resistance on the charts, while the cash fundamentals continue to push higher.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished higher every day but Monday this week and the most actively traded January contract will show a gain of 15.075 on the week. After being quoted sharply lower at the end of last week due to very light volume, the CME Feeder Cattle index has been higher each day this week. Currently, the index is at $343.73, $24.97 higher than the $318.76 average following last Friday’s sales. Open interest within the Feeder Cattle complex continues to decrease. This is something that is causing a little confusion as to how the Feeder Cattle complex can continue to rally. Lower open interest during a higher market would suggest that this rally has been due to short covering. The manner in which the Feeder Cattle have moved higher would suggest that fund buying is what’s driving the futures. This will be something to keep a close eye on as we head into next week, and more importantly, into the end of the year.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hogs finished higher each of the last three days after trading down to technical support on Tuesday. Today’s push higher took out the most recent highs that were set toward the beginning of November, but the futures could not break through the 50-day MA. There is a fair amount of overhead technical resistance near today’s highs. The Lean Hog complex will need some bullish news to enter the market next week to push the futures through these levels and open up a new leg higher. The USDA continues to play catch up on export sales data. As of October 30, exports are 8% behind the same time a year ago. Spain has now reported 13 cases of ASF within the country. All cases have been wild boars and isolated to the same area. This is something traders are watching closely as it has affected exports from Spain into China, but will become a bigger issue if Spain discovers the disease in their commercial herd.

Corn: Corn futures finished the week lower after a very choppy, back and forth week. The futures continue to find resistance at the 200-day MA above the market and support at the 20-day MA below the market. The March contract traded above and below both of these lines each day this week, but the majority of the activity took place in between. This week’s Ethanol Production Report showed a new weekly record, taking out the previous record set five weeks ago.  Yesterday, the USDA announced export sales to Columbia and Mexico, proving the strong export demand the U.S. currently has. The USDA will release their monthly WASDE report on Tuesday. Pre-report estimates show a slight decrease in corn carryout compared to a month ago. Estimates for the South American crop will also be released and corn production in the country looks to be increased slightly.