Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished mixed today with the December contract finishing the day lower. There were 15 deliveries in Kearney, Nebraska last night leading to the pressure on the nearby contract. Last night’s deliveries proved that the December futures are too high compared to the last known cash trade and cash expectations for this week’s trade. Last week’s cash averages were $220.16 in Iowa, $222.59 in Nebraska and $224.08 in Kansas. Texas is now unreportable due to the low numbers of negotiated cattle not meeting confidentiality rules. Boxed beef was quoted higher today after being mixed on Monday. This morning, choice was $2.07 higher at $362.97 and select was up $1.32 to $349.92. Last week’s slaughter of 600,000 head will definitely keep boxed beef prices in check for the coming weeks. In today’s WASDE Report, the USDA revised beef production for 2025 higher due to increased carcass weights. Looking ahead to 2026, production was increased 335 million pounds along with an increase of 500 million pounds of imports. The increase in production and imports will keep beef supplies the same in 2026 as they are in 2025. The USDA cited that the removal of tariffs on “key beef suppliers” will encourage additional beef shipments into the United States.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished the day slightly lower after trading over a 5.000 range. Futures climbed higher to near yesterday’s highs on the open before selling off within the first hour of trade. Corn futures moving higher after the WASDE Report also made it difficult for the Feeder Cattle complex to find support. The CME Feeder Cattle index posted a new high for the move following last Thursday’s sales and then saw a slight decrease heading into the weekend. Cash Feeder Cattle continue to work higher due to the increase in cash fat cattle price last week along with Corn failing to sustain a move higher. Open interest has been decreasing during the latest move higher. That would suggest that the majority of the reason that the futures worked higher was due to short covering and not new buying. Monday’s lower move showed an increase in open interest supporting the idea that the higher move was short covering. The Feeder Cattle complex will need to find new buying with bullish news to push through the overhead resistance that is near Friday’s high.
Lean Hogs: The Lean Hog complex traded mostly lower today with the exception of the nearby December contract which finished slightly higher at 82.500. The December contract that will expire on Friday is currently holding a $0.66 premium to the Lean Hog index which is at $81.84. The pork cutout was $2.76 higher this morning at $98.27. The belly market is leading the charge with an increase of $11.61 and $8.76 above its 5-day average. Cash continues to trade in the low $70 range with this morning’s national report quoted at $71.01. The USDA made some minor changes to their pork supply and demand numbers today in the WSADE Report. The biggest change being the 60 million pound revision higher for 2026 exports due to stronger demand. For 2025, estimates for exports are to be down 2% compared to last year. The USDA will release their quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report on December 23 giving the industry the next look at hog supplies.
Corn: The USDA released their monthly WASDE Report this morning and the futures market moved higher on added export demand. Export demand was increased 125 million bushels which increased the total export demand to 3.2 billion bushels for the current marketing year. The USDA is estimating record export demand for the U.S. and has now increased that demand the last two reports. They cited robust demand during the month of November which lead to a new record for the first quarter of the marketing year, surpassing the totals in 2007. There were no changes made to production or supply in the U.S. and no change to South American production. The pre-report expectation was for the Brazilian corn crop to be reduced slightly while leaving Argentina unchanged. U.S. carryout was decreased 125 million bushels compared to a month ago due to the increase in export demand. This is 95 million bushels more than the average trade guess ahead of the report.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
Mar
448.00
4.25
CHI Wheat
Mar
534.50
0.25
KC Wheat
Mar
527.00
0.50
Soybeans
Jan
1087.25
6.50
Soy Oil
Jan
51.02
0.16
Soy Meal
Jan
301.30
5.00
Live Cattle
Dec
226.825
0.500
Feeder Cattle
Jan
335.500
0.150
Lean Hogs
Dec
82.500
0.200
Crude Oil
Jan
58.38
0.50
Ch Cutout
362.97
2.07
Sel Cutout
349.92
1.32
Feeder Index
344.50
1.44
Pork Cutout
95.51
0.88
Dollar Index
99.197
0.1100
DOW
47,613
125
National Corn Basis
-41.47
0.22
National Bean Basis
-70.35
0.60
Dates to Remember
December 9- WASDE Report
December 12- December Lean Hog Expiration
December 19- Cattle on Feed Report
December 23- Hogs and Pigs Report
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
82.500
80.500
2.000
82.900
0.400
National Cash
70.04
71.68
1.64
81.02
10.98
Index
81.84
81.67
0.17
83.33
1.53
Cutout
95.51
94.78
0.73
93.63
1.88
IA/SMN Cash
71.18
74.24
3.06
80.50
9.32
IA/SMN Weights
293.80
293.40
0.40
289.10
4.70
Slaughter
2,702,000
2,086,000
616,000
2,603,790
98,210
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
222.59
222.59
South Cash
224.08
224.08
North Steer Basis
1.00
2.16
Choice Boxes
362.97
372.05
9.08
314.14
48.83
Select Boxes
349.92
358.97
9.05
279.34
70.58
Spread
13.05
13.08
0.03
34.80
21.75
Carcass Weights
897
893
4
867
30
Slaughter
600,000
498,000
102,000
614,183
14,183
FC Index
344.50
332.36
12.14
262.25
82.25
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
N/A
$191.12
KS
$224.08
$191.16
NE
$222.59
$194.75
IA/MN
$220.16
$194.59
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 11/04/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
108,348
8,007
-144,318
94
319,773
2,017
Feeder Cattle
17,763
3,560
-8,005
2,138
64,394
1,398
Lean Hogs
7,818
16,343
-144,704
12,851
303,211
1,001
Corn
-71,516
17,990
-150,431
21,846
1,466,973
2,257
Soybeans
178,683
60,194
-298,224
53,091
946,446
8,229
Live Cattle Markets
February Live Cattle traded to new highs for the move this morning. Resistance is at the 50-day MA of 229.225 and then the 200-day MA of 231.525. Support is at 225.650 followed by the 20-day MA of 219.450.
Feeder Cattle Markets
January Feeder Cattle could not trade through the 50- and 100-day MA today. Resistance is the 50-day MA of 339.875 and then the 100-day MA of 340.050. Support is at 332.750 followed by the 20-day MA of 324.025.
Lean Hogs Markets
February Lean Hogs finished lower for the first time in five days. Support is at today’s low of 80.650 followed by the 20-day MA of 80.350. Resistance is at 83.025 and then the 50-day MA of 83.100.
Corn Markets
March Corn continues to trade in its tight range. Resistance is at 452 1/4 and then 457. Support is at the 20-day MA of 445 followed by 441 3/4.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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12/9/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished mixed today with the December contract finishing the day lower. There were 15 deliveries in Kearney, Nebraska last night leading to the pressure on the nearby contract. Last night’s deliveries proved that the December futures are too high compared to the last known cash trade and cash expectations for this week’s trade. Last week’s cash averages were $220.16 in Iowa, $222.59 in Nebraska and $224.08 in Kansas. Texas is now unreportable due to the low numbers of negotiated cattle not meeting confidentiality rules. Boxed beef was quoted higher today after being mixed on Monday. This morning, choice was $2.07 higher at $362.97 and select was up $1.32 to $349.92. Last week’s slaughter of 600,000 head will definitely keep boxed beef prices in check for the coming weeks. In today’s WASDE Report, the USDA revised beef production for 2025 higher due to increased carcass weights. Looking ahead to 2026, production was increased 335 million pounds along with an increase of 500 million pounds of imports. The increase in production and imports will keep beef supplies the same in 2026 as they are in 2025. The USDA cited that the removal of tariffs on “key beef suppliers” will encourage additional beef shipments into the United States.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished the day slightly lower after trading over a 5.000 range. Futures climbed higher to near yesterday’s highs on the open before selling off within the first hour of trade. Corn futures moving higher after the WASDE Report also made it difficult for the Feeder Cattle complex to find support. The CME Feeder Cattle index posted a new high for the move following last Thursday’s sales and then saw a slight decrease heading into the weekend. Cash Feeder Cattle continue to work higher due to the increase in cash fat cattle price last week along with Corn failing to sustain a move higher. Open interest has been decreasing during the latest move higher. That would suggest that the majority of the reason that the futures worked higher was due to short covering and not new buying. Monday’s lower move showed an increase in open interest supporting the idea that the higher move was short covering. The Feeder Cattle complex will need to find new buying with bullish news to push through the overhead resistance that is near Friday’s high.
Lean Hogs: The Lean Hog complex traded mostly lower today with the exception of the nearby December contract which finished slightly higher at 82.500. The December contract that will expire on Friday is currently holding a $0.66 premium to the Lean Hog index which is at $81.84. The pork cutout was $2.76 higher this morning at $98.27. The belly market is leading the charge with an increase of $11.61 and $8.76 above its 5-day average. Cash continues to trade in the low $70 range with this morning’s national report quoted at $71.01. The USDA made some minor changes to their pork supply and demand numbers today in the WSADE Report. The biggest change being the 60 million pound revision higher for 2026 exports due to stronger demand. For 2025, estimates for exports are to be down 2% compared to last year. The USDA will release their quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report on December 23 giving the industry the next look at hog supplies.
Corn: The USDA released their monthly WASDE Report this morning and the futures market moved higher on added export demand. Export demand was increased 125 million bushels which increased the total export demand to 3.2 billion bushels for the current marketing year. The USDA is estimating record export demand for the U.S. and has now increased that demand the last two reports. They cited robust demand during the month of November which lead to a new record for the first quarter of the marketing year, surpassing the totals in 2007. There were no changes made to production or supply in the U.S. and no change to South American production. The pre-report expectation was for the Brazilian corn crop to be reduced slightly while leaving Argentina unchanged. U.S. carryout was decreased 125 million bushels compared to a month ago due to the increase in export demand. This is 95 million bushels more than the average trade guess ahead of the report.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
December 9- WASDE Report
December 12- December Lean Hog Expiration
December 19- Cattle on Feed Report
December 23- Hogs and Pigs Report
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 11/04/2025
Live Cattle Markets
February Live Cattle traded to new highs for the move this morning. Resistance is at the 50-day MA of 229.225 and then the 200-day MA of 231.525. Support is at 225.650 followed by the 20-day MA of 219.450.
Feeder Cattle Markets
January Feeder Cattle could not trade through the 50- and 100-day MA today. Resistance is the 50-day MA of 339.875 and then the 100-day MA of 340.050. Support is at 332.750 followed by the 20-day MA of 324.025.
Lean Hogs Markets
February Lean Hogs finished lower for the first time in five days. Support is at today’s low of 80.650 followed by the 20-day MA of 80.350. Resistance is at 83.025 and then the 50-day MA of 83.100.
Corn Markets
March Corn continues to trade in its tight range. Resistance is at 452 1/4 and then 457. Support is at the 20-day MA of 445 followed by 441 3/4.