12/9/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished mixed today with the December contract finishing the day lower. There were 15 deliveries in Kearney, Nebraska last night leading to the pressure on the nearby contract. Last night’s deliveries proved that the December futures are too high compared to the last known cash trade and cash expectations for this week’s trade. Last week’s cash averages were $220.16 in Iowa, $222.59 in Nebraska and $224.08 in Kansas. Texas is now unreportable due to the low numbers of negotiated cattle not meeting confidentiality rules. Boxed beef was quoted higher today after being mixed on Monday. This morning, choice was $2.07 higher at $362.97 and select was up $1.32 to $349.92. Last week’s slaughter of 600,000 head will definitely keep boxed beef prices in check for the coming weeks. In today’s WASDE Report, the USDA revised beef production for 2025 higher due to increased carcass weights. Looking ahead to 2026, production was increased 335 million pounds along with an increase of 500 million pounds of imports. The increase in production and imports will keep beef supplies the same in 2026 as they are in 2025. The USDA cited that the removal of tariffs on “key beef suppliers” will encourage additional beef shipments into the United States.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished the day slightly lower after trading over a 5.000 range. Futures climbed higher to near yesterday’s highs on the open before selling off within the first hour of trade. Corn futures moving higher after the WASDE Report also made it difficult for the Feeder Cattle complex to find support. The CME Feeder Cattle index posted a new high for the move following last Thursday’s sales and then saw a slight decrease heading into the weekend. Cash Feeder Cattle continue to work higher due to the increase in cash fat cattle price last week along with Corn failing to sustain a move higher. Open interest has been decreasing during the latest move higher. That would suggest that the majority of the reason that the futures worked higher was due to short covering and not new buying. Monday’s lower move showed an increase in open interest supporting the idea that the higher move was short covering. The Feeder Cattle complex will need to find new buying with bullish news to push through the overhead resistance that is near Friday’s high.

Lean Hogs: The Lean Hog complex traded mostly lower today with the exception of the nearby December contract which finished slightly higher at 82.500. The December contract that will expire on Friday is currently holding a $0.66 premium to the Lean Hog index which is at $81.84. The pork cutout was $2.76 higher this morning at $98.27. The belly market is leading the charge with an increase of $11.61 and $8.76 above its 5-day average. Cash continues to trade in the low $70 range with this morning’s national report quoted at $71.01. The USDA made some minor changes to their pork supply and demand numbers today in the WSADE Report. The biggest change being the 60 million pound revision higher for 2026 exports due to stronger demand. For 2025, estimates for exports are to be down 2% compared to last year. The USDA will release their quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report on December 23 giving the industry the next look at hog supplies.

Corn: The USDA released their monthly WASDE Report this morning and the futures market moved higher on added export demand. Export demand was increased 125 million bushels which increased the total export demand to 3.2 billion bushels for the current marketing year. The USDA is estimating record export demand for the U.S. and has now increased that demand the last two reports. They cited robust demand during the month of November which lead to a new record for the first quarter of the marketing year, surpassing the totals in 2007. There were no changes made to production or supply in the U.S. and no change to South American production. The pre-report expectation was for the Brazilian corn crop to be reduced slightly while leaving Argentina unchanged. U.S. carryout was decreased 125 million bushels compared to a month ago due to the increase in export demand. This is 95 million bushels more than the average trade guess ahead of the report.

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn Mar 448.00 4.25
CHI Wheat Mar 534.50 0.25
KC Wheat Mar 527.00 0.50
Soybeans Jan 1087.25 6.50
Soy Oil Jan 51.02 0.16
Soy Meal Jan 301.30 5.00
Live Cattle Dec 226.825 0.500
Feeder Cattle Jan 335.500 0.150
Lean Hogs Dec 82.500 0.200
Crude Oil Jan 58.38 0.50
Ch Cutout 362.97 2.07
Sel Cutout 349.92 1.32
Feeder Index 344.50 1.44
Pork Cutout 95.51 0.88
Dollar Index 99.197 0.1100
DOW 47,613 125
National Corn Basis -41.47 0.22
National Bean Basis -70.35 0.60

Dates to Remember

December 9- WASDE Report

December 12- December Lean Hog Expiration

December 19- Cattle on Feed Report

December 23- Hogs and Pigs Report

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 82.500 80.500 2.000 82.900 0.400
National Cash 70.04 71.68 1.64 81.02 10.98
Index 81.84 81.67 0.17 83.33 1.53
Cutout 95.51 94.78 0.73 93.63 1.88
IA/SMN Cash 71.18 74.24 3.06 80.50 9.32
IA/SMN Weights 293.80 293.40 0.40 289.10 4.70
Slaughter 2,702,000 2,086,000 616,000 2,603,790 98,210

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 222.59 222.59
South Cash 224.08 224.08
North Steer Basis 1.00 2.16
Choice Boxes 362.97 372.05 9.08 314.14 48.83
Select Boxes 349.92 358.97 9.05 279.34 70.58
Spread 13.05 13.08 0.03 34.80 21.75
Carcass Weights 897 893 4 867 30
Slaughter 600,000 498,000 102,000 614,183 14,183
FC Index 344.50 332.36 12.14 262.25 82.25

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM N/A $191.12
KS $224.08 $191.16
NE $222.59 $194.75
IA/MN $220.16 $194.59

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 11/04/2025
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 108,348 8,007 -144,318 94 319,773 2,017
Feeder Cattle 17,763 3,560 -8,005 2,138 64,394 1,398
Lean Hogs 7,818 16,343 -144,704 12,851 303,211 1,001
Corn -71,516 17,990 -150,431 21,846 1,466,973 2,257
Soybeans 178,683 60,194 -298,224 53,091 946,446 8,229

Live Cattle Markets

February Live Cattle traded to new highs for the move this morning. Resistance is at the 50-day MA of 229.225 and then the 200-day MA of 231.525. Support is at 225.650 followed by the 20-day MA of 219.450.

Feeder Cattle Markets

January Feeder Cattle could not trade through the 50- and 100-day MA today. Resistance is the 50-day MA of 339.875 and then the 100-day MA of 340.050. Support is at 332.750 followed by the 20-day MA of 324.025.

Lean Hogs Markets

February Lean Hogs finished lower for the first time in five days. Support is at today’s low of 80.650 followed by the 20-day MA of 80.350. Resistance is at 83.025 and then the 50-day MA of 83.100.

Corn Markets

March Corn continues to trade in its tight range. Resistance is at 452 1/4 and then 457. Support is at the 20-day MA of 445 followed by 441 3/4.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.  Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

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