2/10/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures began the day higher but could not solidify any gains throughout the day. Cash trade last week in the North was at anywhere from 238 to 244, but the weighted average in Nebraska was only 240.37. The weighted average in Kansas was 243.52, and it is important to note that Texas came off of confidentiality this week and reported over 2,000 head of negotiated cattle. There have been no bids up to this point of the week but feedlots will be asking for at least steady with the upper end of last week’s trade. Boxed beef was mixed this morning as choice was quoted $2.24 higher at $370.00 and select was down $0.82 to $364.53. The choice/select spread continues to be at historically low levels but has rebounded from levels seen earlier in 2026. Packer margins continue to be deep in the red and have pushed packers to continue to slow the chain speed within their plants. It is interesting to note that at the end of August and beginning of September, the last time cash cattle were trading between 240-245, choice boxes were trading over $410. In today’s WASDE Report, the USDA increased 2026 beef production in the U.S. by 185 million pounds due to heavier carcass weights. 2026 beef production is now just 0.3% below 2025. Beef imports were also raised by 50 million pounds. With increased production and increased imports, 2026 beef availability is now 0.8% larger than a year ago in the United States.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures traded on both sides of steady today but ultimately finished the day lower. The nearby contracts lead the complex lower with the March contract finishing $2.675 lower while many of the deferred contracts saw less than a $1.000 loss. Since the highs posted last Wednesday, the most active March contract had lost nearly $10 at today’s low. The old saying of “the bull needs fed every day” seems to be playing out in the Feeder Cattle futures. With negative news swirling surrounding Screwworm and beef imports, traders have not been comfortable buyers at this level. The CME Feeder Cattle index remains at historic levels but has been unable to push through the all-time record high of $376.51. Today’s release of the index was $0.83 lower to $373.83 following Monday’s sales. Many sale barns continue to report new records being set across all classes of Feeder Cattle. Many of the contracts have tested the 20-day MA the past four days but have yet to settle below that line. The 20-day MA will be an area to watch over the next few days as many times this line will reverse a trend if violated. The March contract has not settled below the 20-day MA since November 26.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures finished lower for the fourth day in a row today after posting new contract highs last Wednesday. There has been little change to the fundamentals within the Lean Hog complex, but the April contract traded near the $100 level and there has been selling pressure since. Last Friday’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as buyers of over 15,000 contracts, increasing their net long position to nearly 129,000 contracts. Open interest within the complex had been on a continual rise which would indicate new traders entering the market. Over the past few trading sessions, open interest has declined which would suggest that some of the long positions are being exited at these levels. The pork cutout was quoted $2.06 higher yesterday at $95.83 and has been stuck in the mid $90 range for over a month. In today’s WASDE Report, the USDA increased 2026 pork production by a small 60 million pounds due to heavier carcass data. Production for the current year is now projected 2.5% larger than last year. Exports were also increased today by 50 million pounds due to strong demand for U.S. pork and ASF problems in Spain that are decreasing the world supply of pork.

Corn: Corn futures traded in a very tight range today and finished the day fractionally higher. The USDA released their latest WASDE Report this morning and made limited changes to the balance sheet. The only change was an increase of 100 million bushels for export demand. Exports up to this point of the marketing year support an increase and actually leave room for additional increases in future reports. Prior to today’s change, the U.S. was 350 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to meet the export goal. This increase in demand reduced the U.S. carryout to 2.127 billion bushels. There were no changes to South American Corn production. Export inspections that were released yesterday showed another good week of corn shipments. Overall, the Corn market continues to look for a bullish catalyst as supplies continue to be more than comfortable. Today’s increase in exports was helpful in decreasing the current balance sheet, but was not a total surprise to traders. Technically, there is a lot of chart resistance near Friday’s highs that was met with a large amount of selling. Most of the focus will now shift to the Prospective Planting Report on March 31 when the USDA will give the first look into 2026 production for the United States.