Live Cattle: Futures were under pressure on Tuesday following the news of a human contracting bird flu. The market poked below some key support areas but did see light recovery back above those levels later in the day. Cash news is very quiet in the country, especially in the north. There was light trade in Kansas late in the morning at $203, three dollars lower than last week. Boxed beef was slightly lower on the morning report, now $10+ off the highs we have recently seen. The choice/select spread continues to run at a narrow level, indicating there is demand weakness at the meat counter. Overall, the managed money is running the futures market. The funds were holding a near record-long position as of last Tuesday, and with uncertainty in the market and negative news surrounding cattle and beef, those funds are exiting positions in a big way.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle futures are also falling victim to the negative news stories. Futures did rebound $2 off of the lows for the day but still finished with big losses. Cash feeders are also working lower; more supply of bigger index cattle is softening the bids a little along with dragging down the weighted average price. News of Mexican feeder cattle imports is also weighing on the market.
Lean Hogs: Today’s WASDE report slightly raised total pork production for 2025 by 20 million pounds. This now has 2025 production up 2.7% compared to 2024. Annual exports are forecasted to be 7.295 billion pounds, which would be 2.5% larger than last year and a record if projections hold true. There have been some packers taking out their Saturday harvests as cash hog prices continue to remain seasonally strong. The cutout continues its strength as well with Monday’s cutout just $0.38 away from $100. The bellies continue to lead the charge at $168.15. The WASDE report today has Q2 production up 2%, Q3 up 4% and Q4 up 4% from a year ago. We saw June lean hogs close at $104.70 today, and July lean hogs closed at $105.25, which is only $0.25 off of contract highs for both months. August closed at $104.275, $0.10 off the contract high.
Corn: The WASDE report offered no changes to the balance sheet for corn in the U.S. There was a reduction of 1 MMT to both Brazil and Argentina production estimates. There was a flash sale of exports to Mexico on Monday morning, easing the minds of a lot of traders that the trade war with Mexico may be short lived, or at least have some sort of resolution by this fall. Ethanol demand has been strong, although production levels have backed off from the record levels of a few months ago. The U.S. export pace remains above the seasonal pace needed to meet the USDA export goal. Some thought there would likely be an increase in export demand in today’s report, but the USDA opted to leave that number unchanged—something to watch in the coming reports.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
March
484.00
7.50
CHI Wheat
March
577.00
2.50
KC Wheat
March
592.75
4.25
MN Wheat
March
618.25
7.00
Soybeans
March
1043.50
6.00
Soy Oil
March
46.13
0.40
Soy Meal
March
296.60
3.90
Live Cattle
April
196.000
2.125
Feeder Cattle
March
264.775
3.350
Lean Hogs
April
92.975
1.350
Crude Oil
March
73.32
1.00
Ch Cutout
322.26
0.88
Sel Cutout
312.3
1.32
Feeder Index
275.85
0.09
Pork Cutout
99.62
2.31
Dollar Index
107.932
0.39
DOW
44,628
157
National Corn Basis
-32.67
0.01
National Bean Basis
-64.31
0.21
Dates to Remember
Feb 11- WASDE Report
Feb 17- No Markets
Feb 21- Cattle on Feed Report
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
88.725
85.075
3.65
73.550
15.175
National Cash
83.17
83.43
0.26
65.21
17.96
Index
85.75
83.77
1.99
74.11
11.64
Cutout
99.62
93.81
5.81
85.80
13.82
IA/SMN Cash
83.02
84.31
1.29
65.49
17.53
IA/SMN Weights
290.80
291.70
0.10
290.80
0.00
Slaughter
2,536,000
2,569,000
33,000
2,623,899
87,899
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
208.00
179.98
South Cash
205.89
179.86
North Steer Basis
6.30
-3.22
Choice Boxes
322.62
333.73
11.11
294.08
28.54
Select Boxes
312.30
320.75
.8.45
287.02
25.28
Spread
10.32
12.98
2.66
7.06
3.26
Carcass Weights
872
874
2
833
39
Slaughter
584,000
600,000
16,000
617,013
33,013
FC Index
275.76
280.63
4.87
246.06
29.7
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$205.86
$180.11
KS
$205.89
$179.86
NE
$208.00
$179.98
IA/MN
$207.14
$180.84
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 2/4/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
150,374
6,535
-183,969
6,104
373,060
2,573
Feeder Cattle
28,175
704
-10,875
773
79,945
236
Lean Hogs
95,329
3,392
-150,451
2,618
312,221
2,036
Corn
364,217
13,496
-643,777
14,874
2,027,008
10,990
Soybeans
57,029
533
-147,685
1,908
904,209
3,600
Live Cattle Markets
The April contract broke below the bottom-side support at 195.325, but settled back above that level. Topside resistance will be at the 20-day MA of 200.050, support under the market remains at the 50-day MA of 195.350 and the spike low from January 8 at 195.625.
Feeder Cattle Markets
March Feeder futures continue to be stuck between the 20-day MA and the 50-day MA. The contract did trade below the 50-day MA and support levels today but closed above them. Resistance will be at 270.750 at the 20-day MA along with chart consolidation at 271.350-271.500. Support is at the 50-day MA of 264.200 and the spike low of 263.625 from January 8.
Lean Hogs Markets
April Hogs posted new highs for the move on Monday. Resistance above the market remains at 93.050. The gap in the chart at 89.900 will be the first line of support.
Corn Markets
March Futures first line of resistance is Wednesday’s high at 498 1/2, followed by 504 1/2. Support lies at the 20-day MA, 486 3/4, then 472 1/4 to 474 area.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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2/11/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Futures were under pressure on Tuesday following the news of a human contracting bird flu. The market poked below some key support areas but did see light recovery back above those levels later in the day. Cash news is very quiet in the country, especially in the north. There was light trade in Kansas late in the morning at $203, three dollars lower than last week. Boxed beef was slightly lower on the morning report, now $10+ off the highs we have recently seen. The choice/select spread continues to run at a narrow level, indicating there is demand weakness at the meat counter. Overall, the managed money is running the futures market. The funds were holding a near record-long position as of last Tuesday, and with uncertainty in the market and negative news surrounding cattle and beef, those funds are exiting positions in a big way.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle futures are also falling victim to the negative news stories. Futures did rebound $2 off of the lows for the day but still finished with big losses. Cash feeders are also working lower; more supply of bigger index cattle is softening the bids a little along with dragging down the weighted average price. News of Mexican feeder cattle imports is also weighing on the market.
Lean Hogs: Today’s WASDE report slightly raised total pork production for 2025 by 20 million pounds. This now has 2025 production up 2.7% compared to 2024. Annual exports are forecasted to be 7.295 billion pounds, which would be 2.5% larger than last year and a record if projections hold true. There have been some packers taking out their Saturday harvests as cash hog prices continue to remain seasonally strong. The cutout continues its strength as well with Monday’s cutout just $0.38 away from $100. The bellies continue to lead the charge at $168.15. The WASDE report today has Q2 production up 2%, Q3 up 4% and Q4 up 4% from a year ago. We saw June lean hogs close at $104.70 today, and July lean hogs closed at $105.25, which is only $0.25 off of contract highs for both months. August closed at $104.275, $0.10 off the contract high.
Corn: The WASDE report offered no changes to the balance sheet for corn in the U.S. There was a reduction of 1 MMT to both Brazil and Argentina production estimates. There was a flash sale of exports to Mexico on Monday morning, easing the minds of a lot of traders that the trade war with Mexico may be short lived, or at least have some sort of resolution by this fall. Ethanol demand has been strong, although production levels have backed off from the record levels of a few months ago. The U.S. export pace remains above the seasonal pace needed to meet the USDA export goal. Some thought there would likely be an increase in export demand in today’s report, but the USDA opted to leave that number unchanged—something to watch in the coming reports.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
Feb 11- WASDE Report
Feb 17- No Markets
Feb 21- Cattle on Feed Report
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 2/4/2025
Live Cattle Markets
The April contract broke below the bottom-side support at 195.325, but settled back above that level. Topside resistance will be at the 20-day MA of 200.050, support under the market remains at the 50-day MA of 195.350 and the spike low from January 8 at 195.625.
Feeder Cattle Markets
March Feeder futures continue to be stuck between the 20-day MA and the 50-day MA. The contract did trade below the 50-day MA and support levels today but closed above them. Resistance will be at 270.750 at the 20-day MA along with chart consolidation at 271.350-271.500. Support is at the 50-day MA of 264.200 and the spike low of 263.625 from January 8.
Lean Hogs Markets
April Hogs posted new highs for the move on Monday. Resistance above the market remains at 93.050. The gap in the chart at 89.900 will be the first line of support.
Corn Markets
March Futures first line of resistance is Wednesday’s high at 498 1/2, followed by 504 1/2. Support lies at the 20-day MA, 486 3/4, then 472 1/4 to 474 area.