Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern U.S. and Central Plains.
NEBRASKA
4809 S 114th St
Omaha, NE 68137
IOWA
4280 Sergeant Rd, Ste 240
Sioux City, IA 51106
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Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern US and Central Plains.
Monday – Friday
8:00 A.M. – 4:00 P.M.
2/14/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live cattle finished the week sharply lower, breaking below some key support levels. Cash trade has been slow and sporadic. Feedlots traded cattle at 202-203 earlier this week in the south. The north held on in hopes of getting steady money but ended up trading the majority of cattle at 203. Boxed beef continues to move lower. Choice boxes are down $12.42 for the week and the choice/select spread has narrowed up $4.72. Neither give beef demand a warm fuzzy feeling. With a major packer not running on Monday and lighter daily kills throughout the remainder of the week, slaughter was down 23,000 head compared to an already small prior week. Open interest continues to escape the live cattle market as the managed money exits their record-long position from a few weeks ago.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle futures faired a little better this week. Finishing the week slightly higher, the charts look much better. The cash fundamentals have held together and demand seems to still be hanging strong. The feeder cattle index is $5.45 off its highs from two weeks ago, while the futures are nearly $13 off of their highs. Demand in sale barns remains strong as feedlots continue to have pens that need filled with less cattle available to buy. The Mexican border is now open for imports of feeder cattle. This should continue to soften the cash market as more supply is available, especially in the southern feeding states.
Lean Hogs: The cash fundamentals have been red hot in the hog complex and futures posted new contract highs this week as a result. Compared to last week, the national cash is up $4.52, the index up $3.01 and the cutout up $5.23. The cutout is back above $100 for the first time since November 11th. President Trump spoke yesterday on tariffs with Mexico and Canada, and as a reminder, the 30-day pause ends on March 4th. Mexico accounts for a large portion of the export market out of the U.S. and any sort of tariff or disruption of trade could be detrimental to hog and pork prices.
Corn: Corn futures continue to be well supported as fund buying continues. The market also received some help from the wheat market on Friday as traders are concerned about winter kill and new unknowns with conflict in Russia and Ukraine. Vice President Vance indicated that if a “peace deal” cannot be reached between the two countries, the U.S. will escalate the situation using the military. March futures traded right up to $5 on Friday and failed to find any follow-through at that level. Corn exports remain solid, although the USDA elected to make no changes to the balance sheet this week. Flash sales to Colombia this morning and Mexico early in the week keep exports ahead of the seasonal pace needed to reach the USDA export goal. We are 45 days away from our first official look into the 2025 crop year and planted acres. The growing trend is that there will be more corn acres planted this year as the market incentivizes farmers to switch from other crops, especially soybeans. Definitely something to keep an eye on as we get through spring and the start of summer.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
Feb 17- No Markets
Feb 21- Cattle on Feed
Feb 28- February Live Cattle Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 2/4/2025
Live Cattle Markets
Live cattle futures took out bottom side support today. The support levels at 195.325 and the 195.000 area both gave way in the April contract and traded to fresh lows for the move. There is small support at 193.000 but nothing major until 188.300. The 100 and 200-day MA will both need to be crossed to get to those levels.
Feeder Cattle Markets
The feeder cattle charts have held together better than the live cattle charts. Support still remains at 263.000-263.500 after the 50-day MA at 264.775. Topside resistance remains at the 20-day MA of 270.425.
Lean Hogs Markets
New contract highs across all months on Wednesday. That will be the resistance above the market with the April contract at 94.750. Support under the market will be at the 20-day MA of 90.400, and a gap to fill at 89.900.
Corn Markets
Corn pushed higher and posted new highs for the move on Friday. 499 3/4 and 500 will be topside resistance for the March contract. Support is at 489 1/2 with the 20-day MA and then 481 1/2.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.