Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern U.S. and Central Plains.
NEBRASKA
4809 S 114th St
Omaha, NE 68137
IOWA
4280 Sergeant Rd, Ste 240
Sioux City, IA 51106
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Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern US and Central Plains.
Monday – Friday
8:00 A.M. – 4:00 P.M.
2/18/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Futures started the shortened holiday week lower in nearby contracts and higher in deferred contracts. We’re seeing bear spreading, indicating there is little hope for a higher cash market in the near term. Boxed beef continues to show signs of weakness. Choice was quoted 1.03 higher this morning, while select was down 2.29. Choice is now 5.89 lower, and select is down 8.36 compared to this time last week. No indication of what cash will be yet this week. Kill was only 95,000 head on Monday and 118,000 head on Tuesday, leaving us 4,000 head behind last week’s dismal pace. Packers continue to try and artificially prop up boxed beef by having less supply on the market. Managed money continues to liquidate their long position. The funds now have a net long position of 135,709 contracts, down 21,200 from their record long 3 weeks ago. There are some important support areas on the charts that need to hold for the technical traders to buy or remain long the live cattle complex.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures faired much better than Live Cattle today. Cash feeder cattle have held together much better than fat cattle and are now actually working higher again. The weighted average for Monday’s sales was 277.99—up 1.69 compared to Friday. With futures at a discount to the cash market, the futures have been supported and the managed money has not been as quick to liquidate their position.
Lean Hogs: June and July futures posted new contract highs today while all other months tested their contract highs. The cash market and cash fundamentals continue to be red hot. The pork cutout was up another $.48 on Friday to $102.47, which is the highest it has been since the beginning of November. There has only been one other time in history that the cutout has traded over $100 in the middle of February. Eyes remain on trade talks between Mexico and the U.S. with a large portion of U.S. pork being exported into Mexico. We are now two weeks away from the beginning of March, when tariffs are set to go into effect.
Corn: The corn market continues to be well supported. We are nearing the highs from early last summer, which should offer some pretty stiff resistance for the futures market. National basis has seen slight improvement over the past week. Wheat found support on Friday on concerns of winter kill during this cold snap, and that support trickled into the corn market. We are halfway through the month of February and crop insurance price discovery. The spring price for corn is currently at $4.70/bu and soybeans at $10.58/bu. With these prices and the ratio between them, there will be a lot of acres switched to corn and we should see a large corn number in the prospective plantings report on March 31st. Managed money was a seller of corn the week ending February 11th, but their position is still in the top 25% of their historical long position.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
Feb 21- Cattle on Feed Report
Feb 21- Last Trade for March Grain Options
Feb 26- Cold Storage Report
Feb 28- February Live Cattle Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 2/11/2025
Live Cattle Markets
April live cattle found chart support on Tuesday and settled $1 off of its lows. Bottom side support is between 192.875 and 193.075. Top side resistance is at 197.525 followed by the 20-day MA of 199.450.
Feeder Cattle Markets
Feeder cattle continue to trade between the 20 and 50-day MA. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 270.500. Support will be at the 50-day MA of 265.050 then 263.150.
Lean Hogs Markets
The April contract posted its daily high at a nickle short of the contract high. Resistance will be at the contract high of 93.750. Support under the market is in the 90.650-90.725 area.
Corn Markets
March corn tested the high from May 28th at 504 1/2, posting a high today of 504 1/4. Resistance remains at 504 1/2, followed by 508 1/4. Support lies at 490 1/4 with the 20-day MA and 481 1/2, which was our low last week.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.