Live Cattle: Cash trade struggled to find strength as packers have reduced kill over the last couple weeks and boxed beef continues to drift lower. Cash traded in the North mainly at $200 live and $315 dressed, with a few cattle getting sold at $201 to regional packers. April futures finished the week $.30 lower after bouncing off some chart supports levels twice this week. Dressed weights for the week ending February 8 were unchanged from the prior week but up 46 lbs from last year. This number is skewed slightly with the U.S. enduring a cold snap during the same week a year ago. We should see weights have some short-term relief with the cold weather that moved into the Midwest this week, but overall we will continue to see large carcasses due to an ideal winter and packers slowing their chain speed causing feedlots to keep cattle on feed longer. USDA Cattle on Feed report that was released at 2pm today showed cattle on feed at 99% of a year ago, placements up 2% from last year, and cattle marketed for the month of January up 1%. All numbers were pretty close to the average estimates and should not affect the market much Monday morning.
Feeder Cattle: Despite live cattle futures that are trading sideways to lower and the corn market that continues to put in new highs, feeder cattle futures have been well supported. The April contract finished $1.60 higher for the week. The CME feeder cattle index saw gains this week as well, which is helping to support the futures. Feeders have traded themselves into a very interesting chart formation. The 20-day MA has been offering resistance above the market since the beginning of February and the 50-day MA has held the bottom side for the same duration. A breakout one way or the other is imminent, but the range is narrowing and next week will be telling for the next big move in the feeder cattle futures.
Lean Hogs: Cash fundamentals surrounding the hog market turned on a dime this week and drug the futures lower with them. The pork cutout gained over $8 over the course of two weeks and in the last 3 days has wiped out all of those gains. Managed money has not liked the bearish fundamentals and have been exiting their long positions. Open interest in the lean hog complex dropped close to 15,000 contracts on Thursday indicating there is long liquidation taking place. April futures breached the 100-day moving average today after setting new contract highs just last week. Demand is remaining strong. Export sales out this morning showed continued demand from Mexico.
Corn: Corn futures posted new highs for the move in the middle of the week but gave up all of the weekly gains on Friday. May corn reached its highest level since January of 2024 but failed to find much support at those levels. Demand remains strong across ethanol and exports, currently sitting 8% ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA’s yearly export goal. Look for revisions higher in the March WASDE report. We are 40 days away from our first look into the 2025 growing season and the acres for principle crops. The consensus is that we will see a HUGE corn acre number on March 31st, which will offer some resistance to rallies through the spring and into the start of summer.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
May
505.00
7.75
CHI Wheat
May
604.00
3.75
KC Wheat
May
609.25
1.75
MN Wheat
May
646.50
1.25
Soybeans
May
1057.25
5.75
Soy Oil
May
47.34
0.45
Soy Meal
May
303.90
.70
Live Cattle
April
193.950
0.150
Feeder Cattle
April
267.550
1.175
Lean Hogs
April
87.675
0.850
Crude Oil
April
70.35
2.13
Ch Cutout
311.87
0.76
Sel Cutout
304.08
0.90
Feeder Index
277.99
1.69
Pork Cutout
94.03
1.49
Dollar Index
106.615
0.242
DOW
43,399
777
National Corn Basis
-30.98
0.72
National Bean Basis
-62.36
0.66
Dates to Remember
Feb 21- Cattle on Feed
Feb 21- Last Trade for March Grain Options
Feb 26- Cold Storage Report
Feb 28- February Live Cattle Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
87.675
89.475
1.80
85.975
1.700
National Cash
89.44
90.75
1.31
72.62
16.82
Index
91.22
88.06
3.16
78.78
12.44
Cutout
94.03
100.87
6.84
92.00
2.03
IA/SMN Cash
90.12
90.73
0.61
72.81
17.31
IA/SMN Weights
289.60
290.00
0.40
288.00
1.60
Slaughter
2,536,000
2,529,000
7,000
2,576,946
40,946
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
200-201
202.94
2-3 Lower
183.00
17.50
South Cash
199-200
202.65
3-4 Lower
182.47
17.03
North Steer Basis
3.00
4.50
1.50
-3.22
6.22
Choice Boxes
311.87
315.14
3.27
297.80
14.07
Select Boxes
304.08
308.55
4.47
284.46
20.34
Spread
7.79
6.59
1.2
13.34
5.55
Carcass Weights
875
875
0
829
46
Slaughter
563,000
561,000
2,000
590,486
27,486
FC Index
278.82
276.23
2.59
242.66
36.16
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
198-199
$203.00
$182.80
KS
199
$202.65
$182.47
NE
200-201
$202.94
$183.00
IA/MN
200-201
$202.97
$183.42
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 2/18/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
128,469
7,240
-170,749
2,704
361,925
71
Feeder Cattle
30,069
1,702
-11,404
906
77,962
142
Lean Hogs
114,148
11,522
-160,605
6,182
306,147
14,710
Corn
353,533
21,144
-638,930
22,352
2,069,030
2,395
Soybeans
16,526
11,949
-99,953
18,442
897,852
7,078
Live Cattle Markets
April live cattle found support around 193.000 twice this week. The 193.000 will continue to be a support area followed by 192.500. Resistance above the market is at 195.475 and then 197.525.
Feeder Cattle Markets
Feeders have been trading between the 50 and 20-day MA for most of February. Resistance will be at the 20-day MA of 269.575 while support is at the 50-day MA of 265.950. Below the range, there is support at 262.900 and above the range, there is resistance at 271.125.
Lean Hogs Markets
Lean Hogs continue the volatility that 2025 has seen so far. There was a chart gap left at 93.025 that will be resistance before the contract high of 94.750. Support is at 86.350.
Corn Markets
Corn futures pushed to the highest levels since January 2024. There is a gap in the May chart at 519 1/2 that will offer resistance right behind this week’s high of 518 3/4. Support under the market is at the 20-day MA of 503 1/2 followed by 495 1/4.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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2/21/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Cash trade struggled to find strength as packers have reduced kill over the last couple weeks and boxed beef continues to drift lower. Cash traded in the North mainly at $200 live and $315 dressed, with a few cattle getting sold at $201 to regional packers. April futures finished the week $.30 lower after bouncing off some chart supports levels twice this week. Dressed weights for the week ending February 8 were unchanged from the prior week but up 46 lbs from last year. This number is skewed slightly with the U.S. enduring a cold snap during the same week a year ago. We should see weights have some short-term relief with the cold weather that moved into the Midwest this week, but overall we will continue to see large carcasses due to an ideal winter and packers slowing their chain speed causing feedlots to keep cattle on feed longer. USDA Cattle on Feed report that was released at 2pm today showed cattle on feed at 99% of a year ago, placements up 2% from last year, and cattle marketed for the month of January up 1%. All numbers were pretty close to the average estimates and should not affect the market much Monday morning.
Feeder Cattle: Despite live cattle futures that are trading sideways to lower and the corn market that continues to put in new highs, feeder cattle futures have been well supported. The April contract finished $1.60 higher for the week. The CME feeder cattle index saw gains this week as well, which is helping to support the futures. Feeders have traded themselves into a very interesting chart formation. The 20-day MA has been offering resistance above the market since the beginning of February and the 50-day MA has held the bottom side for the same duration. A breakout one way or the other is imminent, but the range is narrowing and next week will be telling for the next big move in the feeder cattle futures.
Lean Hogs: Cash fundamentals surrounding the hog market turned on a dime this week and drug the futures lower with them. The pork cutout gained over $8 over the course of two weeks and in the last 3 days has wiped out all of those gains. Managed money has not liked the bearish fundamentals and have been exiting their long positions. Open interest in the lean hog complex dropped close to 15,000 contracts on Thursday indicating there is long liquidation taking place. April futures breached the 100-day moving average today after setting new contract highs just last week. Demand is remaining strong. Export sales out this morning showed continued demand from Mexico.
Corn: Corn futures posted new highs for the move in the middle of the week but gave up all of the weekly gains on Friday. May corn reached its highest level since January of 2024 but failed to find much support at those levels. Demand remains strong across ethanol and exports, currently sitting 8% ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA’s yearly export goal. Look for revisions higher in the March WASDE report. We are 40 days away from our first look into the 2025 growing season and the acres for principle crops. The consensus is that we will see a HUGE corn acre number on March 31st, which will offer some resistance to rallies through the spring and into the start of summer.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
Feb 21- Cattle on Feed
Feb 21- Last Trade for March Grain Options
Feb 26- Cold Storage Report
Feb 28- February Live Cattle Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 2/18/2025
Live Cattle Markets
April live cattle found support around 193.000 twice this week. The 193.000 will continue to be a support area followed by 192.500. Resistance above the market is at 195.475 and then 197.525.
Feeder Cattle Markets
Feeders have been trading between the 50 and 20-day MA for most of February. Resistance will be at the 20-day MA of 269.575 while support is at the 50-day MA of 265.950. Below the range, there is support at 262.900 and above the range, there is resistance at 271.125.
Lean Hogs Markets
Lean Hogs continue the volatility that 2025 has seen so far. There was a chart gap left at 93.025 that will be resistance before the contract high of 94.750. Support is at 86.350.
Corn Markets
Corn futures pushed to the highest levels since January 2024. There is a gap in the May chart at 519 1/2 that will offer resistance right behind this week’s high of 518 3/4. Support under the market is at the 20-day MA of 503 1/2 followed by 495 1/4.