Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern U.S. and Central Plains.
NEBRASKA
4809 S 114th St
Omaha, NE 68137
IOWA
4280 Sergeant Rd, Ste 240
Sioux City, IA 51106
© Producers Livestock. All Rights Reserved.
Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern US and Central Plains.
Monday – Friday
8:00 A.M. – 4:00 P.M.
2/25/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures have started the week higher following support from the mildly friendly cattle on feed report on Friday. Estimated kill for last week was 563,000, up 2,000 from the previous week, but still poor overall. The lack of kill has caused boxed beef values to increase, and seasonally, prices usually continue to climb from this point. Choice was 1.99 higher this morning to 315.72 while select was 2.20 higher at 306.17. Cash cattle traded lower for the third week in a row on limited volume, giving the industry a feeling that the packers may be a little short-bought heading into this week. Carcass weights have continued to stabilize for the time being, currently running the same week over week but well above a year ago and the 3-year average.
Feeder Cattle: In a blink of an eye, feeder cattle futures have gained back $11+ in two weeks. Cash feeder cattle in sale barns have yet to see a big correction and the board is forced to converge with the index. According to Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, Texas placements were down 14% compared to a year ago. Most of this can be attributed to the ban on Mexican feeder cattle which limited the supply of cattle for the feed yards. We have yet to see the full scope of impact from the import restrictions in terms of supplies to feed yards and in turn, ready fat cattle. Managed money continues to buy feeder cattle as tight supplies persist.
Lean Hogs: April Lean Hogs finished lower for the 8th day in a row. The decline in the futures began with deteriorating cash fundamentals and now politics are the top headline as President Trump stated that tariffs are still set to go into effect at the beginning of March after a 30-day delay. The pork cutout continues to be volatile. After a sharp correction lower, it has rebounded $4 off the lows. Open interest in the Lean Hog complex continues to decline on what appears to be fund-long liquidation. The CFTC report on Friday will shed light on the current state of the managed money position but with the decrease in open interest, we should see a large decrease in their long position.
Corn: Corn futures finished the day lower for the 3rd straight day. After testing very stout resistance levels last week, futures have set back close to 18 cents over the last 5 days. Managed money continues to carry a large long position for this time of year and the funds appear to be losing confidence that corn needs to be at this level or higher. Corn exports remain strong. Tariffs with Mexico are a sensitive subject in the corn market as Mexico continues to be one of the largest buyers of U.S. corn. The crop insurance spring price will be set by the end of the week and will give guaranteed levels for the 2025 crop.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
Feb 26- Cold Storage Report
Feb 28- February Live Cattle Expiration
Mar 11- WASDE Report
Mar 31- Perspective Planting Report
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 2/18/2025
Live Cattle Markets
Resistance in April Live Cattle is at 197.050 followed by the 20-day MA at 197.875. Support on the bottom side will be at last week’s lows around 193.000.
Feeder Cattle Markets
After spending most of the month of February between the 20-day and 50-day MA, feeders broke out to the topside. Resistance above the market is at 275.750. Support under the market is the 20-day MA of 269.375.
Lean Hogs Markets
April Lean Hogs got right down to major support today. 86.350 is major support for the April contract. 90.375 will be the first line of resistance.
Corn Markets
May corn broke through bottom side at 495. Now support in the May contract will be at 484. 515 3/4 will be resistance above the market.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.