Live Cattle: The live cattle complex finished the week with big losses across all months, with the nearby contracts leading the way. April futures broke through support areas and lows from last week and pushed lower to finish the day. Cash trade has become a sore subject with feed yards as packers continue to slow the chain speed and manage the inventory of ready cattle. A regional packer in the north is now running 3-day weeks and only killing contract cattle until margins move back into their favor. Carcass weights for the week ending February 15 were up two pounds from the previous week and 41 pounds higher than a year ago. Boxed beef will finish this week all but unchanged. Total cattle slaughter is on the third straight week of small kill numbers. Last week’s kill was revised up 6000 head but still a very small week historically. Total slaughter this week is 566,000 head. Beef demand seasonally picks up in this time slot, and boxes and the choice/select spread seasonally work higher. Economic and political uncertainty is also weighing on live cattle futures. With tariffs set to go into place with Mexico and Canada on March 4, the beef and cattle markets are far from immune to inventory and demand challenges going forward. The DOW is nearly 2000 points off this year’s high set on January 31st.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle futures are the bright spot among the commodity markets this week. After breaking out of a range on Monday morning, futures found buyers that propelled all months higher, testing contract highs in many of the deferred months. Feeder cattle finished the week under pressure, unable to fight off the lower live cattle futures. The combination of high demand, strong prices and the index at a strong premium elevated nearby contracts. Today’s index is at $281.06, which is just $0.62 below the all-time high. The March contract finished higher four of five days this week and finished the week with a gain of $7.025/cwt.
Lean Hogs: Tariffs are the name of the game in the lean hog complex. Back and forth as to when and if the tariffs would go into effect created a volatile week within the futures. President Trump says the tariffs with Canada and Mexico will be going into effect on Tuesday, March 4, with plans to add tariffs to China as well. April futures finished below the 200-day MA for the first time since mid-September. April should stay tied to the cash fundamentals to some extent but not a good technical look for the hogs. The pork cutout was quoted $4.30 higher yesterday afternoon, raising it back above the $100 mark. Almost all of the higher price came in the belly primal which had very light volume.
Corn: May corn finished .3550 lower on the week following AgForum’s outlook conference and the projection for 94 million acres of corn to get planted this spring, up 3.4 million from 2024. The economic difference between corn and soybeans is large and even with the pullback in futures this week, corn is still the more attractive crop. Export sales this week were 50% of the four-week average. The USDA is currently underestimating our exports compared to the pace we are on, but with more weeks like this, we will not be far off the expectations. Tariffs also affect the grain markets, as Mexico is a big corn customer and China buys a large amount of U.S. soybeans.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
May
469.50
11.50
CHI Wheat
May
555.75
6.75
KC Wheat
May
573.00
12.25
MN Wheat
May
597.75
7.00
Soybeans
May
1025.75
11.50
Soy Oil
May
44.12
1.23
Soy Meal
May
300.20
0.00
Live Cattle
April
192.650
3.475
Feeder Cattle
April
273.000
2.550
Lean Hogs
April
83.675
0.700
Crude Oil
April
69.89
0.46
Ch Cutout
311.82
0.64
Sel Cutout
302.06
0.07
Feeder Index
281.06
1.42
Pork Cutout
100.96
4.30
Dollar Index
107.629
0.3850
DOW
43,531
292
National Corn Basis
-27.54
1.91
National Bean Basis
-58.84
0.69
Dates to Remember
Feb 28- February Live Cattle Expiration
Mar 11- WASDE Report
Mar 31- Prospective Planting Report
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
83.675
87.675
4.000
86.000
2.325
National Cash
89.49
89.44
0.05
76.18
13.31
Index
89.39
91.22
1.83
81.48
7.91
Cutout
100.96
94.03
6.93
92.11
8.85
IA/SMN Cash
89.44
90.12
0.68
76.35
13.09
IA/SMN Weights
288.10
289.60
1.50
287.70
0.40
Slaughter
2,538,000
2,522,000
16,000
2,550,467
12,467
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
198
199.61
1-2 Lower
183.44
14.56
South Cash
197
198.96
1-2 Lower
182.81
14.19
North Steer Basis
1.00
3.00
2.00
-2.13
3.13
Choice Boxes
311.82
311.87
0.05
303.03
8.79
Select Boxes
302.06
304.08
2.02
292.94
9.12
Spread
9.76
7.79
1.97
10.09
0.33
Carcass Weights
877
875
2
834
43
Slaughter
566,000
569,000
3,000
594,236
28,236
FC Index
281.06
278.82
2.24
246.80
34.26
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
197
$199.00
$182.74
KS
197
$198.96
$182.81
NE
198
$199.61
$183.44
IA/MN
198
$200.21
$183.58
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 2/25/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
121,311
7,158
-164,379
6,370
363,323
1,862
Feeder Cattle
28,144
1,925
-11,409
5
80,884
699
Lean Hogs
90,492
23,656
-139,883
20,722
293,377
12
Corn
337,454
16,079
-621,452
17,478
1,886,083
23,493
Soybeans
8,209
8,317
-94,670
5,283
782,597
20,024
Live Cattle Markets
April futures broke through the support levels at the 193.000 area and 192.875. Support will now be at the 200-day MA and 188.300 area. Resistance above the market is near today’s high and the 20-day MA of 196.350.
Feeder Cattle Markets
April futures took out all resistance except contract highs this week before finishing the week lower. The contract high of 279.000 will remain as resistance after this week’s high of 276.825. The first line of support is at the 20-day MA of 269.250.
Lean Hogs Markets
April lean hogs took out all support lines this week with the tariff news. Settlement today was below the 200-day MA. The next support line is at 81.450. Resistance will be at 84.500 followed by 88.600.
Corn Markets
May corn finished lower every day this week and the result is an ugly chart picture. The 100-day MA of 463 and the 200-day MA of 457 1/2 will be support. 456 3/4 is the next support line. Resistance will begin at 484.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
Let's Talk
Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern US and Central Plains.
2/28/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: The live cattle complex finished the week with big losses across all months, with the nearby contracts leading the way. April futures broke through support areas and lows from last week and pushed lower to finish the day. Cash trade has become a sore subject with feed yards as packers continue to slow the chain speed and manage the inventory of ready cattle. A regional packer in the north is now running 3-day weeks and only killing contract cattle until margins move back into their favor. Carcass weights for the week ending February 15 were up two pounds from the previous week and 41 pounds higher than a year ago. Boxed beef will finish this week all but unchanged. Total cattle slaughter is on the third straight week of small kill numbers. Last week’s kill was revised up 6000 head but still a very small week historically. Total slaughter this week is 566,000 head. Beef demand seasonally picks up in this time slot, and boxes and the choice/select spread seasonally work higher. Economic and political uncertainty is also weighing on live cattle futures. With tariffs set to go into place with Mexico and Canada on March 4, the beef and cattle markets are far from immune to inventory and demand challenges going forward. The DOW is nearly 2000 points off this year’s high set on January 31st.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle futures are the bright spot among the commodity markets this week. After breaking out of a range on Monday morning, futures found buyers that propelled all months higher, testing contract highs in many of the deferred months. Feeder cattle finished the week under pressure, unable to fight off the lower live cattle futures. The combination of high demand, strong prices and the index at a strong premium elevated nearby contracts. Today’s index is at $281.06, which is just $0.62 below the all-time high. The March contract finished higher four of five days this week and finished the week with a gain of $7.025/cwt.
Lean Hogs: Tariffs are the name of the game in the lean hog complex. Back and forth as to when and if the tariffs would go into effect created a volatile week within the futures. President Trump says the tariffs with Canada and Mexico will be going into effect on Tuesday, March 4, with plans to add tariffs to China as well. April futures finished below the 200-day MA for the first time since mid-September. April should stay tied to the cash fundamentals to some extent but not a good technical look for the hogs. The pork cutout was quoted $4.30 higher yesterday afternoon, raising it back above the $100 mark. Almost all of the higher price came in the belly primal which had very light volume.
Corn: May corn finished .3550 lower on the week following AgForum’s outlook conference and the projection for 94 million acres of corn to get planted this spring, up 3.4 million from 2024. The economic difference between corn and soybeans is large and even with the pullback in futures this week, corn is still the more attractive crop. Export sales this week were 50% of the four-week average. The USDA is currently underestimating our exports compared to the pace we are on, but with more weeks like this, we will not be far off the expectations. Tariffs also affect the grain markets, as Mexico is a big corn customer and China buys a large amount of U.S. soybeans.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
Feb 28- February Live Cattle Expiration
Mar 11- WASDE Report
Mar 31- Prospective Planting Report
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 2/25/2025
Live Cattle Markets
April futures broke through the support levels at the 193.000 area and 192.875. Support will now be at the 200-day MA and 188.300 area. Resistance above the market is near today’s high and the 20-day MA of 196.350.
Feeder Cattle Markets
April futures took out all resistance except contract highs this week before finishing the week lower. The contract high of 279.000 will remain as resistance after this week’s high of 276.825. The first line of support is at the 20-day MA of 269.250.
Lean Hogs Markets
April lean hogs took out all support lines this week with the tariff news. Settlement today was below the 200-day MA. The next support line is at 81.450. Resistance will be at 84.500 followed by 88.600.
Corn Markets
May corn finished lower every day this week and the result is an ugly chart picture. The 100-day MA of 463 and the 200-day MA of 457 1/2 will be support. 456 3/4 is the next support line. Resistance will begin at 484.