Live Cattle: April futures finished the week $5.925 lower. A lower cash market, boxed beef that is failing to find support and negative news all weighed on an overbought market. Thursday news reports of a new strain of bird flu hit the headlines and pressed live cattle futures sharply lower. Funds, who are holding a near record-long position, decided to exit those long positions with uncertainty and negative news. Boxed beef traded $5+ lower on the week and the choice/select spread continues to narrow, showing signs of weakness at the meat counter. Cash cattle traded at $208 in the north and $206 in the south, both down $2 from the previous week. Packers are struggling with margins at this level. One major packer in the north will not be running on Monday. Futures markets are at some big technical levels that need to hold to avoid much more downside pressure.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle futures fell victim to the negative news in the cattle complex as well. March feeders now $15+ off of their contract highs set last week. Cash feeders remain strong but have a weaker tone this week. The CME cash feeder index is now back below 280.00 at 277.64. Higher corn price and lower live cattle futures are all playing a part in the lower bids in the sale barns. The Mexican border is also open for feeder cattle imports, offering more supply to U.S. feedlots.
Lean Hogs: Volatility is consistent in the lean hog futures. April futures finished the week $1.800 higher with a $6.375 range. Futures were under pressure out of the gate Monday with the news of tariffs being imposed on Mexico but took little time to regain the losses and test the most recent highs. Cash fundamentals continue to be supported. National cash was up $5.61 on the week and the cutout gained $2.71. Total pork shipments in 2024 were up 4% compared to 2023, and Mexico was the buyer of 37% of our exports.
Corn: Corn finished the week lower after trading to new highs for the move on Wednesday. Basis and spreads continue to be weak, yet the futures find support. WASDE report will be out on Tuesday. Average trade guess is the USDA will cut carryout another 15 million bushels this month. U.S. exports are currently running ahead of the pace that the USDA has set, so there is a possibility that we see a revision to export demand. Crop insurance prices are being set during February, and right now, corn has the financial incentive for a lot of acres. Definitely something to keep an eye on as we head into the spring and summer.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
March
487.50
7.75
CHI Wheat
March
582.75
5.00
KC Wheat
March
604.25
3.25
MN Wheat
March
627.75
0.75
Soybeans
March
1049.50
11.00
Soy Oil
March
45.98
0.58
Soy Meal
March
301.40
5.00
Live Cattle
April
196.775
0.000
Feeder Cattle
March
264.900
0.400
Lean Hogs
April
92.150
0.400
Crude Oil
March
71.00
0.39
Ch Cutout
322.26
1.72
Sel Cutout
314.53
0.24
Feeder Index
277.64
1.39
Pork Cutout
95.64
1.81
Dollar Index
108.086
0.397
DOW
44,354
393
National Corn Basis
-32.50
0.01
National Bean Basis
-64.37
0.37
Dates to Remember
Feb 11- WASDE Report
Feb 17- No Markets
Feb 21- Cattle on Feed Report
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
87.250
84.175
3.08
73.375
13.875
National Cash
86.23
80.62
5.61
66.37
19.86
Index
85.05
83.06
1.99
74.00
11.05
Cutout
95.64
92.93
2.71
83.92
11.72
IA/SMN Cash
86.98
84.35
2.55
60.97
26.01
IA/SMN Weights
290.70
290.80
0.10
290.80
0.00
Slaughter
2,536,000
2,569,000
33,000
2,623,899
87,899
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
208
210.13
2-4 Lower
181.82
26.18
South Cash
206
207.77
1-2 Lower
180.62
25.38
North Steer Basis
6.50
6.00
0.50
-3.22
9.22
Choice Boxes
322.26
327.56
5.30
294.98
27.28
Select Boxes
314.53
316.25
1.72
285.42
29.11
Spread
7.73
11.31
3.58
9.56
1.83
Carcass Weights
872
874
2
833
39
Slaughter
584,000
600,000
16,000
617,013
33,013
FC Index
277.64
281.07
3.43
240.62
37.02
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
206
$207.83
$181.90
KS
206
$207.77
$181.82
NE
208
$210.13
$180.62
IA/MN
208
$209.95
$181.21
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 1/28/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
156,909
8,443
-190,073
12,151
388,449
3,353
Feeder Cattle
28,879
496
-11,648
645
80,337
1,407
Lean Hogs
91,937
213
-147,833
546
307,002
2,969
Corn
350,721
39,043
-628,903
38,652
2,029,322
2,171
Soybeans
56,496
16,166
-145,777
9,207
897,704
12,116
Live Cattle Markets
Quiet day to finish the week in the April contract. Topside resistance will be at the 20-day MA of 200.225, support under the market at the 50-day MA of 195.350 and the spike low from January 8 at 195.325.
Feeder Cattle Markets
March Feeder futures have been stuck between the 20-day MA and the 50-day MA the past four trading sessions. Resistance will be at 270.975 at the 20-day MA along with chart consolidation at 271.350-271.500. Support is at the 50-day MA of 263.825 and the spike low of 263.625 from January 8.
Lean Hogs Markets
Pretty wild chart picture in the April Lean Hogs. Resistance above the market remains at 92.750. The gap in the chart at 89.900 will be the first line of support.
Corn Markets
March Futures posted a new high for the move on Wednesday at 498 1/2. This will be the first line of topside resistance followed by 504 1/2. Support lies at the 20-day MA, 485 1/4, then 472 1/4 to 474 area.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
Let's Talk
Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern US and Central Plains.
2/7/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: April futures finished the week $5.925 lower. A lower cash market, boxed beef that is failing to find support and negative news all weighed on an overbought market. Thursday news reports of a new strain of bird flu hit the headlines and pressed live cattle futures sharply lower. Funds, who are holding a near record-long position, decided to exit those long positions with uncertainty and negative news. Boxed beef traded $5+ lower on the week and the choice/select spread continues to narrow, showing signs of weakness at the meat counter. Cash cattle traded at $208 in the north and $206 in the south, both down $2 from the previous week. Packers are struggling with margins at this level. One major packer in the north will not be running on Monday. Futures markets are at some big technical levels that need to hold to avoid much more downside pressure.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle futures fell victim to the negative news in the cattle complex as well. March feeders now $15+ off of their contract highs set last week. Cash feeders remain strong but have a weaker tone this week. The CME cash feeder index is now back below 280.00 at 277.64. Higher corn price and lower live cattle futures are all playing a part in the lower bids in the sale barns. The Mexican border is also open for feeder cattle imports, offering more supply to U.S. feedlots.
Lean Hogs: Volatility is consistent in the lean hog futures. April futures finished the week $1.800 higher with a $6.375 range. Futures were under pressure out of the gate Monday with the news of tariffs being imposed on Mexico but took little time to regain the losses and test the most recent highs. Cash fundamentals continue to be supported. National cash was up $5.61 on the week and the cutout gained $2.71. Total pork shipments in 2024 were up 4% compared to 2023, and Mexico was the buyer of 37% of our exports.
Corn: Corn finished the week lower after trading to new highs for the move on Wednesday. Basis and spreads continue to be weak, yet the futures find support. WASDE report will be out on Tuesday. Average trade guess is the USDA will cut carryout another 15 million bushels this month. U.S. exports are currently running ahead of the pace that the USDA has set, so there is a possibility that we see a revision to export demand. Crop insurance prices are being set during February, and right now, corn has the financial incentive for a lot of acres. Definitely something to keep an eye on as we head into the spring and summer.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
Feb 11- WASDE Report
Feb 17- No Markets
Feb 21- Cattle on Feed Report
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 1/28/2025
Live Cattle Markets
Quiet day to finish the week in the April contract. Topside resistance will be at the 20-day MA of 200.225, support under the market at the 50-day MA of 195.350 and the spike low from January 8 at 195.325.
Feeder Cattle Markets
March Feeder futures have been stuck between the 20-day MA and the 50-day MA the past four trading sessions. Resistance will be at 270.975 at the 20-day MA along with chart consolidation at 271.350-271.500. Support is at the 50-day MA of 263.825 and the spike low of 263.625 from January 8.
Lean Hogs Markets
Pretty wild chart picture in the April Lean Hogs. Resistance above the market remains at 92.750. The gap in the chart at 89.900 will be the first line of support.
Corn Markets
March Futures posted a new high for the move on Wednesday at 498 1/2. This will be the first line of topside resistance followed by 504 1/2. Support lies at the 20-day MA, 485 1/4, then 472 1/4 to 474 area.