Live Cattle: There has been no cash trade yet this week, but everything is pointing to a higher trade. Rumors of a $205 bid early this week have not caught any sales. The futures market has been quiet relative to last week. The worry of equity markets bleeding into the cattle market felt like the reason for a softer Tuesday. Boxed Beef was quoted higher at noon along with the choice/select spread finally widening out. The cutout and the spread are starting to show signs of demand picking up. USDA updated its 2025 beef production numbers today, and the U.S. is now projected to see a 1% decrease this year compared to last year. Imports were also increased 105 million lbs. following a massive January import total.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures have been well supported to begin the week. The CME feeder cattle index was quoted $2.59 higher today as feedlots can pay more for the cash feeders with the higher live cattle board. Available feeder cattle remain tight and this does not look to change anytime soon. The deferred contracts posted new all-time highs this morning before the futures broke back and finished mixed.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hogs rallied nearly $8/cwt at the end of last week and the beginning of this week. The April contract ran right into a big resistance area yesterday and failed to get through that area today. The USDA lowered its 2025 production estimates by 105 million lbs., citing lower-than-expected slaughter numbers so far this year. The Hogs and Pigs Report at the end of March will shed light on the current state of the sow herd and overall hog herd. So far in 2025, it looks like the last report is roughly 1.5% too high on market-ready hogs.
Corn: Today’s USDA report was all but exciting as the USDA made no changes to the domestic balance sheet. Carryout remains at 1.540 billion bushels, nearly 26% less than 9 months ago. World carryout was reduced slightly, but with most of those bushels in the hands of China, the market did not see much of a reaction. We are three weeks away from the first look at the 2025 growing season. Many still believe we will see massive corn acres in this report and a trendline yield, just as we saw coming out of the AgForm outlook conference.
Closing Prices
Corn
May
469.25
5.25
CHI Wheat
May
551.25
2.75
KC Wheat
May
564.75
1.00
MN Wheat
May
592.75
1.25
Soybeans
May
1025.00
2.25
Soy Oil
May
41.93
0.33
Soy Meal
May
301.80
0.50
Live Cattle
April
199.550
1.025
Feeder Cattle
April
277.700
0.225
Lean Hogs
April
86.550
1.750
Crude Oil
April
66.59
0.56
Ch Cutout
314.31
1.19
Sel Cutout
306.09
2.58
Feeder Index
273.95
0.18
Pork Cutout
96.8
0.00
Dollar Index
103.953
0.1410
DOW
41,433
478.23
National Corn Basis
-0.39
0.0041
National Bean Basis
-0.6394
0.007
Dates to Remember
March 31- Prospective Planting
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
86.550
82.350
4.200
83.275
3.275
National Cash
88.90
88.41
0.49
76.16
12.74
Index
89.71
89.94
0.23
81.61
8.10
Cutout
98.22
99.79
1.57
93.51
4.71
IA/SMN Cash
88.98
89.16
0.18
76.16
12.82
IA/SMN Weights
289.10
288.10
1.00
287.30
1.80
Slaughter
2,418,000
2,538,000
120,000
2,440,332
22,332
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
201.25
187.51
South Cash
196.61
185.79
North Steer Basis
2.00
-2.51
Choice Boxes
322.32
313.92
8.40
308.88
13.44
Select Boxes
309.49
303.15
6.34
298.88
10.61
Spread
12.83
10.77
2.06
10.00
2.83
Carcass Weights
875
877
2
834
41
Slaughter
578,000
566,000
12,000
583,995
5,995
FC Index
276.54
278.75
2.21
248.24
28.30
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$196.67
$185.94
KS
$196.61
$185.79
NE
$201.25
$187.51
IA/MN
$203.39
$188.21
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 3/4/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
110,468
10,843
-150,116
14,263
355,830
2,234
Feeder Cattle
28,880
736
-11,207
202
78,317
126
Lean Hogs
57,480
33,012
-113,296
26,587
263,420
6,708
Corn
219,752
117,702
-539,161
82,291
1,828,967
7,912
Soybeans
-35,487
43,696
69,293
25,377
811,085
10
Live Cattle Markets
April Live cattle have fallen back below the $200.000 mark as traders wait to see what cash cattle trade at this week. Resistance levels above the market are 201.975 and 203.275. Support under the market is the 20-day MA of 195.675 and the 100-day MA of 193.425.
Feeder Cattle Markets
April Feeders took out the contract high of 279.00 and posted a new contract high at 280.300. This will be the resistance area on the top side of the market. Support under the market is at 272.550 followed by the 20-day MA of 271.650.
Lean Hogs Markets
The 20, 50 and 100-day MA all land from at 88.100 to 88.675. Our most recent high has been 88.600. Stiff resistance will be at 88.600. Support under the market is at the 200-day MA of 84.225.
Corn Markets
Corn made new highs for the move today before finishing the day lower. The market did poke through the 38% resistance level but settled below that line. The 50% retracement is at 480 1/2 and is an upward area to watch. Support will be at the 200-day MA of 456 and the 100-day MA of 464 1/2.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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3/11/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: There has been no cash trade yet this week, but everything is pointing to a higher trade. Rumors of a $205 bid early this week have not caught any sales. The futures market has been quiet relative to last week. The worry of equity markets bleeding into the cattle market felt like the reason for a softer Tuesday. Boxed Beef was quoted higher at noon along with the choice/select spread finally widening out. The cutout and the spread are starting to show signs of demand picking up. USDA updated its 2025 beef production numbers today, and the U.S. is now projected to see a 1% decrease this year compared to last year. Imports were also increased 105 million lbs. following a massive January import total.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures have been well supported to begin the week. The CME feeder cattle index was quoted $2.59 higher today as feedlots can pay more for the cash feeders with the higher live cattle board. Available feeder cattle remain tight and this does not look to change anytime soon. The deferred contracts posted new all-time highs this morning before the futures broke back and finished mixed.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hogs rallied nearly $8/cwt at the end of last week and the beginning of this week. The April contract ran right into a big resistance area yesterday and failed to get through that area today. The USDA lowered its 2025 production estimates by 105 million lbs., citing lower-than-expected slaughter numbers so far this year. The Hogs and Pigs Report at the end of March will shed light on the current state of the sow herd and overall hog herd. So far in 2025, it looks like the last report is roughly 1.5% too high on market-ready hogs.
Corn: Today’s USDA report was all but exciting as the USDA made no changes to the domestic balance sheet. Carryout remains at 1.540 billion bushels, nearly 26% less than 9 months ago. World carryout was reduced slightly, but with most of those bushels in the hands of China, the market did not see much of a reaction. We are three weeks away from the first look at the 2025 growing season. Many still believe we will see massive corn acres in this report and a trendline yield, just as we saw coming out of the AgForm outlook conference.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
March 31- Prospective Planting
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 3/4/2025
Live Cattle Markets
April Live cattle have fallen back below the $200.000 mark as traders wait to see what cash cattle trade at this week. Resistance levels above the market are 201.975 and 203.275. Support under the market is the 20-day MA of 195.675 and the 100-day MA of 193.425.
Feeder Cattle Markets
April Feeders took out the contract high of 279.00 and posted a new contract high at 280.300. This will be the resistance area on the top side of the market. Support under the market is at 272.550 followed by the 20-day MA of 271.650.
Lean Hogs Markets
The 20, 50 and 100-day MA all land from at 88.100 to 88.675. Our most recent high has been 88.600. Stiff resistance will be at 88.600. Support under the market is at the 200-day MA of 84.225.
Corn Markets
Corn made new highs for the move today before finishing the day lower. The market did poke through the 38% resistance level but settled below that line. The 50% retracement is at 480 1/2 and is an upward area to watch. Support will be at the 200-day MA of 456 and the 100-day MA of 464 1/2.