3/18/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished mixed today after posting new contract highs in all deferred months. Open interest continues to climb as the managed money adds to their long position. Boxed Beef was higher midday with choice being up $1.82 at $322.98 and select $1.43 higher at $309.33. The choice/select spread is now at $13.65 which is wider than we have seen in some time, indicating better demand. Beef demand should remain supported as we head into the summer and grilling season gets fired up. Cash cattle this week is looking to be higher, but how much higher will be the question. The feeling in the country is that 210 would be the lowest that feedlots would price inventory at this week. American Foods announced the closure of their Yankton, SD plant yesterday. The plant that employed nearly 300 people was closed immediately as officials cited lack of profitability. American Foods is set to open the doors of a new processing facility in Missouri this spring that will process 2,400 hd a day.

Feeder Cattle: Managed money is currently record long the feeder cattle complex and has not let off the gas to start this week. Open interest continues to work upward and is at an all-time record high. Futures posted new contract and all-time highs both days this week before a slight sell off later in the day on Tuesday. Cash feeders remain strong but basis for the sellers has deteriorated, especially for heavier cattle. The crush between live cattle, feeder cattle and corn has never been worse. Now that live cattle futures have limited, if any, carry and feeder cattle futures have created a carry into the deferred month, heavier feeder cattle have not come along with the futures. The feeder cattle index continues to work higher as the lighter cattle that go into that pricing work higher. March futures expire next Thursday and will have to converge with the index by that time.

Lean Hogs: Futures started the week sharply higher but gave back most of those gains today. June futures appear to be stuck between the $100 level and the 200-day MA. Traders continue to eye tariffs with Mexico and what that means for U.S. exports into Mexico. Cash fundamentals have worked slightly lower this week. The Mexican peso/U.S. dollar spread has moved back in favor of U.S. exports. This should bode well for U.S. pork demand, even considering the impact of tariffs.

Corn: Corn found support with a higher wheat market on Monday and finished the day slightly lower on Tuesday. Concerns over crop conditions in the U.S. along with the U.S. becoming very competitive in the world market gave wheat a reason to trade higher Monday and corn followed suit. Corn exports last week remained strong and put the U.S. 220 million bushels ahead of the USDA pace for the year. It will be interesting to see when the USDA makes this adjustment to the balance sheet or if they drag it out as long as possible with potential tariffs on the line. Traders continue to wait for the end of the month to see U.S. planting intentions and what that means to our carryout going forward.

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn May 458.75 2.25
CHI Wheat May 565.00 3.50
KC Wheat May 606.25 0.75
MN Wheat May 614.00 1.00
Soybeans May 1012.75 2.75
Soy Oil May 42.54 0.44
Soy Meal May 299.90 4.40
Live Cattle April 205.375 0.350
Feeder Cattle April 284.550 0.350
Lean Hogs April 87.600 0.475
Crude Oil April 66.90 0.68
Ch Cutout 322.98 1.82
Sel Cutout 309.33 1.43
Feeder Index 284.12 0.84
Pork Cutout 97.65 0.27
Dollar Index 103.257 0.1130
DOW 41,576 264
National Corn Basis -34.18 0.43
National Bean Basis -64.27 0.01

Dates to Remember

March 21- Cattle on Feed

March 27- Hogs and Pigs Report

March 31- Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Planting

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 87.600 86.550 1.050 86.825 0.775
National Cash 88.05 88.90 0.85 79.66 8.39
Index 89.28 89.71 0.43 82.82 6.46
Cutout 97.65 98.22 0.57 93.16 4.49
IA/SMN Cash 88.66 88.98 0.32 79.88 8.78
IA/SMN Weights 289.60 289.10 0.50 287.60 2.00
Slaughter 2,515,000 2,418,000 97,000 2,456,991 58,009

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 205.83 190.26
South Cash 202.61 185.53
North Steer Basis 2.50 2.93
Choice Boxes 322.98 322.32 0.66 313.33 9.65
Select Boxes 309.33 309.49 0.16 303.05 6.28
Spread 13.65 12.83 0.77 10.28 3.37
Carcass Weights 870 875 5 840 30
Slaughter 587,000 578,000 9,000 597,391 10,391
FC Index 284.10 278.71 5.39 251.02 33.08

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM $202.67 $187.96
KS $202.61 $185.53
NE $205.83 $190.26
IA/MN $205.86 $190.49

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 3/11/2025
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 112,816 2,348 -154,813 4,697 370,173 1,151
Feeder Cattle 30,184 1,304 -10,786 421 84,694 113
Lean Hogs 55,571 1,909 -111,675 1,621 265,469 1,191
Corn 146,541 73,211 -461,450 77,711 1,825,668 18,607
Soybeans -15,544 19,943 -88,475 19,182 823,359 2,176

Live Cattle Markets

June Live Cattle tested the contract high today but could not trade through that level. Today’s high of 201.500 will be the first line of resistance followed by the contract high of 201.650. Support underneath the market is at 197.500 followed by 195.650.

Feeder Cattle Markets

May Feeder Cattle traded to a new contract high of 286.550 this morning before turning lower. This will be resistance. Support lies at 279.900 and then at 277.050. The 20-day MA at 274.975 will also offer support.

Lean Hogs Markets

June Lean Hogs settled above the 20-day MA for the first time since 2/18/2025 yesterday but found themselves back below that line today. The 20-day MA will be the first resistance line at 97.875 then the 100.00 area. Support below the market is at today’s low which is also the 200-day MA at 96.025.

Corn Markets

May Corn held at the 200-day MA again this morning. This line has been support the last 5 sessions. Resistance above the market remains at the 100-day MA of 466 and the 38% retracement of 471 1/2.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

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