Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished mixed today after posting new contract highs in all deferred months. Open interest continues to climb as the managed money adds to their long position. Boxed Beef was higher midday with choice being up $1.82 at $322.98 and select $1.43 higher at $309.33. The choice/select spread is now at $13.65 which is wider than we have seen in some time, indicating better demand. Beef demand should remain supported as we head into the summer and grilling season gets fired up. Cash cattle this week is looking to be higher, but how much higher will be the question. The feeling in the country is that 210 would be the lowest that feedlots would price inventory at this week. American Foods announced the closure of their Yankton, SD plant yesterday. The plant that employed nearly 300 people was closed immediately as officials cited lack of profitability. American Foods is set to open the doors of a new processing facility in Missouri this spring that will process 2,400 hd a day.
Feeder Cattle: Managed money is currently record long the feeder cattle complex and has not let off the gas to start this week. Open interest continues to work upward and is at an all-time record high. Futures posted new contract and all-time highs both days this week before a slight sell off later in the day on Tuesday. Cash feeders remain strong but basis for the sellers has deteriorated, especially for heavier cattle. The crush between live cattle, feeder cattle and corn has never been worse. Now that live cattle futures have limited, if any, carry and feeder cattle futures have created a carry into the deferred month, heavier feeder cattle have not come along with the futures. The feeder cattle index continues to work higher as the lighter cattle that go into that pricing work higher. March futures expire next Thursday and will have to converge with the index by that time.
Lean Hogs: Futures started the week sharply higher but gave back most of those gains today. June futures appear to be stuck between the $100 level and the 200-day MA. Traders continue to eye tariffs with Mexico and what that means for U.S. exports into Mexico. Cash fundamentals have worked slightly lower this week. The Mexican peso/U.S. dollar spread has moved back in favor of U.S. exports. This should bode well for U.S. pork demand, even considering the impact of tariffs.
Corn: Corn found support with a higher wheat market on Monday and finished the day slightly lower on Tuesday. Concerns over crop conditions in the U.S. along with the U.S. becoming very competitive in the world market gave wheat a reason to trade higher Monday and corn followed suit. Corn exports last week remained strong and put the U.S. 220 million bushels ahead of the USDA pace for the year. It will be interesting to see when the USDA makes this adjustment to the balance sheet or if they drag it out as long as possible with potential tariffs on the line. Traders continue to wait for the end of the month to see U.S. planting intentions and what that means to our carryout going forward.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
May
458.75
2.25
CHI Wheat
May
565.00
3.50
KC Wheat
May
606.25
0.75
MN Wheat
May
614.00
1.00
Soybeans
May
1012.75
2.75
Soy Oil
May
42.54
0.44
Soy Meal
May
299.90
4.40
Live Cattle
April
205.375
0.350
Feeder Cattle
April
284.550
0.350
Lean Hogs
April
87.600
0.475
Crude Oil
April
66.90
0.68
Ch Cutout
322.98
1.82
Sel Cutout
309.33
1.43
Feeder Index
284.12
0.84
Pork Cutout
97.65
0.27
Dollar Index
103.257
0.1130
DOW
41,576
264
National Corn Basis
-34.18
0.43
National Bean Basis
-64.27
0.01
Dates to Remember
March 21- Cattle on Feed
March 27- Hogs and Pigs Report
March 31- Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Planting
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
87.600
86.550
1.050
86.825
0.775
National Cash
88.05
88.90
0.85
79.66
8.39
Index
89.28
89.71
0.43
82.82
6.46
Cutout
97.65
98.22
0.57
93.16
4.49
IA/SMN Cash
88.66
88.98
0.32
79.88
8.78
IA/SMN Weights
289.60
289.10
0.50
287.60
2.00
Slaughter
2,515,000
2,418,000
97,000
2,456,991
58,009
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
205.83
190.26
South Cash
202.61
185.53
North Steer Basis
2.50
2.93
Choice Boxes
322.98
322.32
0.66
313.33
9.65
Select Boxes
309.33
309.49
0.16
303.05
6.28
Spread
13.65
12.83
0.77
10.28
3.37
Carcass Weights
870
875
5
840
30
Slaughter
587,000
578,000
9,000
597,391
10,391
FC Index
284.10
278.71
5.39
251.02
33.08
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$202.67
$187.96
KS
$202.61
$185.53
NE
$205.83
$190.26
IA/MN
$205.86
$190.49
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 3/11/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
112,816
2,348
-154,813
4,697
370,173
1,151
Feeder Cattle
30,184
1,304
-10,786
421
84,694
113
Lean Hogs
55,571
1,909
-111,675
1,621
265,469
1,191
Corn
146,541
73,211
-461,450
77,711
1,825,668
18,607
Soybeans
-15,544
19,943
-88,475
19,182
823,359
2,176
Live Cattle Markets
June Live Cattle tested the contract high today but could not trade through that level. Today’s high of 201.500 will be the first line of resistance followed by the contract high of 201.650. Support underneath the market is at 197.500 followed by 195.650.
Feeder Cattle Markets
May Feeder Cattle traded to a new contract high of 286.550 this morning before turning lower. This will be resistance. Support lies at 279.900 and then at 277.050. The 20-day MA at 274.975 will also offer support.
Lean Hogs Markets
June Lean Hogs settled above the 20-day MA for the first time since 2/18/2025 yesterday but found themselves back below that line today. The 20-day MA will be the first resistance line at 97.875 then the 100.00 area. Support below the market is at today’s low which is also the 200-day MA at 96.025.
Corn Markets
May Corn held at the 200-day MA again this morning. This line has been support the last 5 sessions. Resistance above the market remains at the 100-day MA of 466 and the 38% retracement of 471 1/2.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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3/18/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished mixed today after posting new contract highs in all deferred months. Open interest continues to climb as the managed money adds to their long position. Boxed Beef was higher midday with choice being up $1.82 at $322.98 and select $1.43 higher at $309.33. The choice/select spread is now at $13.65 which is wider than we have seen in some time, indicating better demand. Beef demand should remain supported as we head into the summer and grilling season gets fired up. Cash cattle this week is looking to be higher, but how much higher will be the question. The feeling in the country is that 210 would be the lowest that feedlots would price inventory at this week. American Foods announced the closure of their Yankton, SD plant yesterday. The plant that employed nearly 300 people was closed immediately as officials cited lack of profitability. American Foods is set to open the doors of a new processing facility in Missouri this spring that will process 2,400 hd a day.
Feeder Cattle: Managed money is currently record long the feeder cattle complex and has not let off the gas to start this week. Open interest continues to work upward and is at an all-time record high. Futures posted new contract and all-time highs both days this week before a slight sell off later in the day on Tuesday. Cash feeders remain strong but basis for the sellers has deteriorated, especially for heavier cattle. The crush between live cattle, feeder cattle and corn has never been worse. Now that live cattle futures have limited, if any, carry and feeder cattle futures have created a carry into the deferred month, heavier feeder cattle have not come along with the futures. The feeder cattle index continues to work higher as the lighter cattle that go into that pricing work higher. March futures expire next Thursday and will have to converge with the index by that time.
Lean Hogs: Futures started the week sharply higher but gave back most of those gains today. June futures appear to be stuck between the $100 level and the 200-day MA. Traders continue to eye tariffs with Mexico and what that means for U.S. exports into Mexico. Cash fundamentals have worked slightly lower this week. The Mexican peso/U.S. dollar spread has moved back in favor of U.S. exports. This should bode well for U.S. pork demand, even considering the impact of tariffs.
Corn: Corn found support with a higher wheat market on Monday and finished the day slightly lower on Tuesday. Concerns over crop conditions in the U.S. along with the U.S. becoming very competitive in the world market gave wheat a reason to trade higher Monday and corn followed suit. Corn exports last week remained strong and put the U.S. 220 million bushels ahead of the USDA pace for the year. It will be interesting to see when the USDA makes this adjustment to the balance sheet or if they drag it out as long as possible with potential tariffs on the line. Traders continue to wait for the end of the month to see U.S. planting intentions and what that means to our carryout going forward.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
March 21- Cattle on Feed
March 27- Hogs and Pigs Report
March 31- Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Planting
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 3/11/2025
Live Cattle Markets
June Live Cattle tested the contract high today but could not trade through that level. Today’s high of 201.500 will be the first line of resistance followed by the contract high of 201.650. Support underneath the market is at 197.500 followed by 195.650.
Feeder Cattle Markets
May Feeder Cattle traded to a new contract high of 286.550 this morning before turning lower. This will be resistance. Support lies at 279.900 and then at 277.050. The 20-day MA at 274.975 will also offer support.
Lean Hogs Markets
June Lean Hogs settled above the 20-day MA for the first time since 2/18/2025 yesterday but found themselves back below that line today. The 20-day MA will be the first resistance line at 97.875 then the 100.00 area. Support below the market is at today’s low which is also the 200-day MA at 96.025.
Corn Markets
May Corn held at the 200-day MA again this morning. This line has been support the last 5 sessions. Resistance above the market remains at the 100-day MA of 466 and the 38% retracement of 471 1/2.