Live Cattle: Friday’s Cattle on Feed report offered a spark to the futures market to start the week, but the market quickly sold off Monday, and the selling spilled into Tuesday. June futures posted a low today $7.700 below the contract high set on Friday before recovering and finishing the day fractionally higher. The managed money appears to be in control of the live cattle complex. With an ugly chart picture, price seasonality, end of the first quarter next week and the length they currently have in the market, it seems like funds are exiting positions. Boxed Beef was quoted higher this morning with choice $6.93 higher and select $0.11 higher. The choice/select spread has widened back out to $20.34, showing signs of demand coming back to the beef markets ahead of grilling season. Digging into Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, Texas placements for February were down 27%, or 95,000 head. The closure and restriction of the southern border for feeder cattle imports continue to strain the supply of available cattle for the feed yards in the south. Cattle on feed in Texas and Kansas is 260,000 head less than a year ago, while Nebraska and Iowa have 50,000 head more on feed than a year ago.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle futures have not been immune to the volatility within the cattle complex and are now seeing $5 daily ranges as “normal.” Cash feeder cattle continue to sell at record prices, keeping the CME feeder cattle index supported. The funds were record long as of last Tuesday, and open interest remains at all-time highs. August futures posted an all-time high of 294.775 last Friday and, at the low today, had erased $10 in two days. It’s not new that the industry is seeing record low inventory of cattle and tight feeder cattle supplies, but the question is whether live cattle futures will continue to support these cash feeder cattle prices and what summer weather will do to entice heifer retention and a herd rebuild going forward.
Lean Hogs: Cash fundamentals continue to be stagnant as the futures market continues to be volatile. Managed money has cut their long position in half over the last month and has no reason to begin to build that position back ahead of the Hogs and Pigs Report later this week and the end of the quarter next week. The futures market continues to fight the 20-day MA above the market but is now being supported by the 200-day MA. This afternoon’s cold storage report showed bellies down 23.8% compared to a year ago and 18% below the 5-year average. Total pork is down 6.7% compared to a year ago. Thursday’s Hogs and Pigs Report looks to be mildly bearish, according to pre-report estimates. As of March 1, all hogs are expected to be up 1.2%, hogs retained for breeding up slightly compared to a year ago and the December through February pig crop looks to be 1.8% more than a year ago.
Corn: Traders continue to buy time as they wait for the Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Planting report on Monday. Managed money has depleted a large portion of their long position and are looking for friendly news to build that long position back. Corn exports are 230 million bushels ahead of pace to meet the current U.S. export goal. The USDA will likely increase export demand on their balance sheets in April, depending on how tariff talks proceed. Farmer selling has been slow, and as a result, basis has firmed up in the Midwest. With lower prices and sales being made during the rally at the beginning of the year, the remaining bushels are being held tight. Most farmers are likely hoping for a summer weather rally or basis appreciation.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
May
457.75
6.75
CHI Wheat
May
543.25
5.00
KC Wheat
May
569.25
8.75
MN Wheat
May
588.50
3.75
Soybeans
May
1001.75
5.75
Soy Oil
May
42.3
0.15
Soy Meal
May
295.10
2.50
Live Cattle
April
206.375
0.475
Feeder Cattle
April
284.850
0.400
Lean Hogs
April
86.650
0.950
Crude Oil
May
68.95
0.16
Ch Cutout
334.03
6.93
Sel Cutout
313.69
0.11
Feeder Index
287.25
0.26
Pork Cutout
97.37
0.51
Dollar Index
104.150
0.1120
DOW
42,502
81
National Corn Basis
-32.30
0.03
National Bean Basis
-62.03
0.50
Dates to Remember
March 25- Cold Storage
March 27- Hogs and Pigs Report
March 31- Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Planting
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
86.650
87.600
0.950
85.150
1.500
National Cash
90.29
88.05
2.24
81.17
9.12
Index
88.79
89.28
0.49
83.69
5.10
Cutout
97.37
97.65
0.28
95.74
1.63
IA/SMN Cash
90.46
88.66
1.80
81.17
9.29
IA/SMN Weights
289.80
289.60
0.20
287.10
1.70
Slaughter
2,428,000
2,509,000
81,000
2,520,684
92,684
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
213.70
189.39
South Cash
209.86
185.53
North Steer Basis
5.00
2.93
Choice Boxes
334.03
322.98
11.05
310.89
23.14
Select Boxes
313.69
309.33
4.36
301.96
11.73
Spread
20.34
13.65
6.69
8.93
11.41
Carcass Weights
868
870
2
842
26
Slaughter
560,000
584,000
24,000
592,712
32,712
FC Index
287.78
282.72
5.06
251.82
35.96
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$209.66
$184.84
KS
$209.86
$185.53
NE
$213.70
$189.39
IA/MN
$212.92
$189.68
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 3/18/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
120,175
7,359
-160,505
5,692
397,070
3,328
Feeder Cattle
31,197
1,013
-11,701
915
84,124
1,139
Lean Hogs
56,709
1,138
-112,107
432
269,571
502
Corn
107,270
39,271
-422,760
39,690
1,823,828
237
Soybeans
-22,005
6,461
93,103
4,628
856,201
1,668
Live Cattle Markets
June live cattle have corrected lower over the last two sessions. Support is at 197.500 and the 20-day MA of 196.625. Resistance is the contract high of 207.300.
Feeder Cattle Markets
May feeder cattle broke through their uptrend line at the end of last week. Support lies at the 20-day MA of 279.500 followed by 279.925. Top-side resistance is at the contract high of 290.625.
Lean Hogs Markets
June lean hogs continue to fight the 20-day MA as overhead resistance. 96.950 is the current 20-day MA, and that is resistance. Support under the market is the 200-day MA of 96.075 and yesterday’s low of 94.500.
Corn Markets
The May corn chart has become quite congested in this area after bumping into the 20-day MA each of the last four sessions. Resistance above the market will be the 20-day MA of 465 1/4 followed by the 100-day MA of 467 1/4. Support below the market is at 455 1/4 and then the 200-day MA of 454 1/4.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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3/25/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Friday’s Cattle on Feed report offered a spark to the futures market to start the week, but the market quickly sold off Monday, and the selling spilled into Tuesday. June futures posted a low today $7.700 below the contract high set on Friday before recovering and finishing the day fractionally higher. The managed money appears to be in control of the live cattle complex. With an ugly chart picture, price seasonality, end of the first quarter next week and the length they currently have in the market, it seems like funds are exiting positions. Boxed Beef was quoted higher this morning with choice $6.93 higher and select $0.11 higher. The choice/select spread has widened back out to $20.34, showing signs of demand coming back to the beef markets ahead of grilling season. Digging into Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, Texas placements for February were down 27%, or 95,000 head. The closure and restriction of the southern border for feeder cattle imports continue to strain the supply of available cattle for the feed yards in the south. Cattle on feed in Texas and Kansas is 260,000 head less than a year ago, while Nebraska and Iowa have 50,000 head more on feed than a year ago.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle futures have not been immune to the volatility within the cattle complex and are now seeing $5 daily ranges as “normal.” Cash feeder cattle continue to sell at record prices, keeping the CME feeder cattle index supported. The funds were record long as of last Tuesday, and open interest remains at all-time highs. August futures posted an all-time high of 294.775 last Friday and, at the low today, had erased $10 in two days. It’s not new that the industry is seeing record low inventory of cattle and tight feeder cattle supplies, but the question is whether live cattle futures will continue to support these cash feeder cattle prices and what summer weather will do to entice heifer retention and a herd rebuild going forward.
Lean Hogs: Cash fundamentals continue to be stagnant as the futures market continues to be volatile. Managed money has cut their long position in half over the last month and has no reason to begin to build that position back ahead of the Hogs and Pigs Report later this week and the end of the quarter next week. The futures market continues to fight the 20-day MA above the market but is now being supported by the 200-day MA. This afternoon’s cold storage report showed bellies down 23.8% compared to a year ago and 18% below the 5-year average. Total pork is down 6.7% compared to a year ago. Thursday’s Hogs and Pigs Report looks to be mildly bearish, according to pre-report estimates. As of March 1, all hogs are expected to be up 1.2%, hogs retained for breeding up slightly compared to a year ago and the December through February pig crop looks to be 1.8% more than a year ago.
Corn: Traders continue to buy time as they wait for the Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Planting report on Monday. Managed money has depleted a large portion of their long position and are looking for friendly news to build that long position back. Corn exports are 230 million bushels ahead of pace to meet the current U.S. export goal. The USDA will likely increase export demand on their balance sheets in April, depending on how tariff talks proceed. Farmer selling has been slow, and as a result, basis has firmed up in the Midwest. With lower prices and sales being made during the rally at the beginning of the year, the remaining bushels are being held tight. Most farmers are likely hoping for a summer weather rally or basis appreciation.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
March 25- Cold Storage
March 27- Hogs and Pigs Report
March 31- Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Planting
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 3/18/2025
Live Cattle Markets
June live cattle have corrected lower over the last two sessions. Support is at 197.500 and the 20-day MA of 196.625. Resistance is the contract high of 207.300.
Feeder Cattle Markets
May feeder cattle broke through their uptrend line at the end of last week. Support lies at the 20-day MA of 279.500 followed by 279.925. Top-side resistance is at the contract high of 290.625.
Lean Hogs Markets
June lean hogs continue to fight the 20-day MA as overhead resistance. 96.950 is the current 20-day MA, and that is resistance. Support under the market is the 200-day MA of 96.075 and yesterday’s low of 94.500.
Corn Markets
The May corn chart has become quite congested in this area after bumping into the 20-day MA each of the last four sessions. Resistance above the market will be the 20-day MA of 465 1/4 followed by the 100-day MA of 467 1/4. Support below the market is at 455 1/4 and then the 200-day MA of 454 1/4.