3/28/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Cash trade has been slow to develop this week, but it appears that when trade does take place, it will be steady based on the last week. 212 to 214 in the North is bid and some cattle have traded there, but not a lot of volume. Last week’s big jump in cash prices bought a lot of cattle, and feed yards are holding tight hoping for more now that their inventories are current. Most packers are buying for the week of April 7, so packers do not have excess inventory around them. This is probably by design at these prices. We are starting to hear rumblings of cooler clean outs and maintenance at plants next week, which will keep the kill numbers in check. This week’s kill was 609,000 head, well exceeding all expectations. Packers finally sped up the chain speed, likely due to meat orders that need to be filled and a boxed beef market that was sharply higher this week. Through this morning’s report, choice is up 7.48 on the week, and select is up 10.72. Demand seems to remain strong even at these elevated prices. Futures action this week was extremely volatile with multiple days of big losses in the morning only to find support and trade sharply higher by afternoon. Open interest is currently at a 6-year high, which adds to the volatility.

Feeder Cattle: Cash feeder cattle continue to set new record highs across all classes of cattle. The CME feeder cattle index continues to stay at record levels, and the futures are following suit. Last week’s Cattle on Feed Report confirmed lighter placements in February and we continue to see tight numbers of available feeder cattle across the United States. Looking back to October’s placement numbers and how quickly cattle are heading into feed yards, the industry has placed last year’s calf crop into feed yards faster than ever, leaving less available going forward.

Lean Hogs: Futures opened $2.000 higher this morning following the Hogs and Pigs Report, before finishing the day mixed. Inventory counts fell short of the pre-report estimates across all categories. All hogs and pigs are 99.8% of a year ago, hogs kept for breeding were down .6% and market hog inventories were 99.8% compared to last year. The USDA also revised many categories lower than what was released previously. Slaughter numbers have not been supporting the numbers from past reports, so the revisions lower do not come as much of a surprise. The smaller herd numbers and breeding numbers will be positive for the deferred contracts. The sow herd is currently at 5.98 million head, which is the lowest in nine years.

Corn: Grain traders anxiously await Monday’s Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks Report. December corn posted a new low for the move overnight as the market continues to worry about a large corn acre number. Average estimates for corn acres are 94.361 million acres, and soybean acres are estimated at 83.762 million. Many private estimates are releasing corn acres between 94.500 to 95.500 million. Export sales slowed last week and were nearly 10 million bushels below the 10-week average. The U.S. is currently the cheapest corn in the world, but with tariff discussions and placements looming, exports have suffered a bit. Monday will be a volatile day in the grain markets, but we will have the baseline for acres for the year after 11:00 a.m.