Live Cattle: Volatility is the headline in cattle futures so far this week and especially today. Futures opened sharply lower and plunged nearly $3.000 before rebounding to finish $2.400 higher in the April contract—nearly a $5.50 daily range. Cash news in the country is lower to start the week, with not much interest from the feedlots. Boxed beef continues to trade sideways and sales feel stagnant. Seasonally, boxed beef demand and price increase from this point. Even with the lighter weekly slaughter numbers, boxed beef struggles to work higher. Easter may be partially to blame for beef prices remaining suppressed later into the calendar year since it is much later this year.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle futures also joined in on the volatility to start the month of March. After a sharply higher week last week, most of those gains were erased at one point today before rebounding and finishing mixed. The feeder cattle index has now turned lower after nearing the all-time high. Lower live cattle futures, more southern cattle and bigger weights in the index are all to blame for the softer quotes. Feeder cattle continue to ignore what the corn market is doing just as it did when corn rallied over $1/bu in the end of 2024 and the start of 2025.
Lean Hogs: Hog futures continue to grind lower as tariff news weighs on the market. April finished the day $1.350 lower but nearly $1.500 off its lows. The technical picture is just plain ugly even with cash fundamentals that are overall steady. Iowa and southern Minnesota carcass weights were down 1.5 lbs last week, which lowered production slightly. With new tariffs on China and tariffs on Mexico going into effect, hog futures are struggling to find support and certainty going forward for pork demand.
Corn: What a difference a week can make in the corn market! With tariffs going into effect for countries that are big supporters of U.S. corn demand and the AgForum outlook conference releasing corn acres higher than a year ago, corn futures have failed to find any support at all. Nearby corn did finish nearly a dime off of its lows but comes after a $.60/bu collapse. There should be some chart support in these areas and one would think demand should pick up again. Will cheaper prices cure cheaper prices? Managed money was carrying a big long position before all this news came to fruition and now they continue to exit.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
May
451.50
4.75
CHI Wheat
May
536.75
11.00
KC Wheat
May
548.50
13.50
MN Wheat
May
580.00
11.25
Soybeans
May
999.00
12.50
Soy Oil
May
42.84
0.65
Soy Meal
May
293.50
4.50
Live Cattle
April
194.650
2.400
Feeder Cattle
April
272.500
0.450
Lean Hogs
April
82.350
1.350
Crude Oil
April
68.03
0.34
Ch Cutout
313.92
0.01
Sel Cutout
303.15
0.74
Feeder Index
280.58
0.86
Pork Cutout
99.79
1.37
Dollar Index
105.160
1.1250
DOW
42,828
419
National Corn Basis
-27.54
1.91
National Bean Basis
-58.84
0.69
Dates to Remember
Mar 11- WASDE Report
Mar 31- Prospective Planting Report
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
82.350
86.575
4.225
86.275
3.925
National Cash
88.41
88.60
0.24
74.16
14.25
Index
89.94
89.68
0.26
80.67
9.27
Cutout
99.79
98.43
1.36
94.45
5.34
IA/SMN Cash
89.16
87.66
1.50
74.53
14.63
IA/SMN Weights
288.10
289.60
1.50
287.70
0.40
Slaughter
2,538,000
2,522,000
16,000
2,550,467
12,467
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
197.81
184.62
South Cash
196.87
184.91
North Steer Basis
1.00
-2.51
Choice Boxes
313.92
315.72
1.80
306.30
7.62
Select Boxes
303.15
306.17
3.02
295.17
7.98
Spread
10.77
9.55
1.22
11.13
0.36
Carcass Weights
877
875
2
834
43
Slaughter
566,000
569,000
3,000
594,236
28,236
FC Index
280.58
279.37
1.21
246.38
34.20
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$197.11
$184.74
KS
$196.87
$184.91
NE
$197.81
$184.62
IA/MN
$198.07
$185.56
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 2/25/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
121,311
7,158
-164,379
6,370
362,589
762
Feeder Cattle
28,144
1,925
-11,409
5
80,421
916
Lean Hogs
90,492
23,656
-139,883
20,722
288,218
2,287
Corn
337,454
16,079
-621,452
17,478
1,861,382
27,763
Soybeans
8,209
8,317
-94,670
5,283
802,615
5,692
Live Cattle Markets
April Futures broke through support this morning but finished with an outside day higher. Support is at the 200-day MA of 189.725 and 188.300 area. Resistance above the market is at the 20-day MA of 195.600.
Feeder Cattle Markets
April Futures violated some key support lines today before turning higher and finishing above those lines. Last week’s high of 276.825 will be the first resistance line. The first line of support is at the 20-day MA of 269.225.
Lean Hogs Markets
April Lean Hogs have taken out all support lines with the tariff news. The next support line is at 81.450. Resistance will be at 84.500 followed by 88.600.
Corn Markets
May corn has been lower each of the two days this week and the result is an ugly chart picture. Today’s low of 442 1/2 and then the 430 area will be support. Resistance will begin at 484.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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3/4/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Volatility is the headline in cattle futures so far this week and especially today. Futures opened sharply lower and plunged nearly $3.000 before rebounding to finish $2.400 higher in the April contract—nearly a $5.50 daily range. Cash news in the country is lower to start the week, with not much interest from the feedlots. Boxed beef continues to trade sideways and sales feel stagnant. Seasonally, boxed beef demand and price increase from this point. Even with the lighter weekly slaughter numbers, boxed beef struggles to work higher. Easter may be partially to blame for beef prices remaining suppressed later into the calendar year since it is much later this year.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle futures also joined in on the volatility to start the month of March. After a sharply higher week last week, most of those gains were erased at one point today before rebounding and finishing mixed. The feeder cattle index has now turned lower after nearing the all-time high. Lower live cattle futures, more southern cattle and bigger weights in the index are all to blame for the softer quotes. Feeder cattle continue to ignore what the corn market is doing just as it did when corn rallied over $1/bu in the end of 2024 and the start of 2025.
Lean Hogs: Hog futures continue to grind lower as tariff news weighs on the market. April finished the day $1.350 lower but nearly $1.500 off its lows. The technical picture is just plain ugly even with cash fundamentals that are overall steady. Iowa and southern Minnesota carcass weights were down 1.5 lbs last week, which lowered production slightly. With new tariffs on China and tariffs on Mexico going into effect, hog futures are struggling to find support and certainty going forward for pork demand.
Corn: What a difference a week can make in the corn market! With tariffs going into effect for countries that are big supporters of U.S. corn demand and the AgForum outlook conference releasing corn acres higher than a year ago, corn futures have failed to find any support at all. Nearby corn did finish nearly a dime off of its lows but comes after a $.60/bu collapse. There should be some chart support in these areas and one would think demand should pick up again. Will cheaper prices cure cheaper prices? Managed money was carrying a big long position before all this news came to fruition and now they continue to exit.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
Mar 11- WASDE Report
Mar 31- Prospective Planting Report
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 2/25/2025
Live Cattle Markets
April Futures broke through support this morning but finished with an outside day higher. Support is at the 200-day MA of 189.725 and 188.300 area. Resistance above the market is at the 20-day MA of 195.600.
Feeder Cattle Markets
April Futures violated some key support lines today before turning higher and finishing above those lines. Last week’s high of 276.825 will be the first resistance line. The first line of support is at the 20-day MA of 269.225.
Lean Hogs Markets
April Lean Hogs have taken out all support lines with the tariff news. The next support line is at 81.450. Resistance will be at 84.500 followed by 88.600.
Corn Markets
May corn has been lower each of the two days this week and the result is an ugly chart picture. Today’s low of 442 1/2 and then the 430 area will be support. Resistance will begin at 484.