Live Cattle: What a week we’ve seen across the cattle complex. On Tuesday morning, it sure looked like the bears were going to finally get their wish and see a steep sell-off of both Live and Feeder Cattle but both turned on a dime to finish the week sharply higher. Tuesday’s lows were at areas that needed to hold for the chart and technical picture to remain strong and traders did just that. April cattle finishing the day Friday $10.775/cwt off of those lows on Tuesday morning. Higher futures markets also supported the cash market later in the week. Trade in the north mostly waited until Friday and trade took place from 200-202. Boxed beef continues to struggle. Boxes were quoted higher at noon today on decent volume but the choice/select narrowed to $8.22. Overall, it was a volatile week in the cattle complex but both the futures and cash markets found support and traded back above the $200 level.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures pushed to new contract highs in many of the deferred contracts on Friday. It has been a tale of two markets as the cash index has now turned lower and while the futures rally to levels never seen before. The index takes a few days to catch back up after the futures change directions but it does feel like we are starting to see bigger cattle going into the index data along with plenty of wheat cattle from southern states that are preventing the index from remaining at all-time highs.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures finished the week strong with three consecutive days higher. The hog market is obviously very sensitive to tariff talks and their implications for the pork market. Export sales last week were the second largest of 2025 and that could even be extended to last October. Half of last week’s sale volume was to Mexico and now 34% of the year-to-date sales of pork for the U.S. are to Mexico. Slaughter this week was 120,000 hd less than the week prior, mostly due to the weather in the middle of the week. Weights were up slightly this week but overall the industry feels that they are very current and are continuing to move hogs in a timely fashion.
Corn: After a massive sell-off that lasted over two weeks and erased close to $.80 from the nearby corn futures, corn rallied into the end of the week with the rest of the agriculture commodity complex, finishing nearly $.30 off the lows that were posted on Tuesday. The delayed tariff announcement from the White House on Wednesday certainly helped, but ‘too far too fast’ seems to be the phrase that comes to mind. Corn was ready for somewhat of a bounce higher and with a WASDE report out next Tuesday, it was time for some profit-taking and a correction in the market. Last week Mexico bought 10 million bushels of corn and year-to-date, the U.S. has sold 703 million bushels to Mexico which is 36% of current sales.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
May
469.25
5.25
CHI Wheat
May
551.25
2.75
KC Wheat
May
564.75
1.00
MN Wheat
May
592.75
1.25
Soybeans
May
1025.00
2.25
Soy Oil
May
43.42
0.25
Soy Meal
May
304.40
0.50
Live Cattle
April
200.275
4.000
Feeder Cattle
April
278.150
3.725
Lean Hogs
April
87.350
0.700
Crude Oil
April
67.07
0.71
Ch Cutout
314.31
1.19
Sel Cutout
306.09
2.58
Feeder Index
273.77
2.32
Pork Cutout
96.49
0.01
Dollar Index
103.790
0.2380
DOW
42,841
225
National Corn Basis
-37.28
0.93
National Bean Basis
-67.32
0.49
Dates to Remember
Mar 11- WASDE Report
Mar 31- Perspective Planting Report
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
87.350
83.675
3.675
84.525
2.825
National Cash
90.77
89.49
1.28
77.17
13.60
Index
90.18
89.39
0.79
81.48
8.70
Cutout
96.49
100.96
4.47
91.15
5.34
IA/SMN Cash
91.31
89.44
1.87
80.70
10.61
IA/SMN Weights
289.10
288.10
1.00
287.30
1.80
Slaughter
2,418,000
2,538,000
120,000
2,440,332
22,332
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
200-202
197.81
3-5 Higher
184.62
16.38
South Cash
197
196.87
Steady-2 Higher
184.91
12.09
North Steer Basis
2.00
1.00
1.00
-2.51
4.51
Choice Boxes
314.31
311.82
2.49
306.61
7.70
Select Boxes
306.09
302.06
4.03
296.23
9.86
Spread
8.22
9.76
1.54
10.35
2.13
Carcass Weights
875
877
2
834
41
Slaughter
578,000
566,000
12,000
583,995
5,995
FC Index
273.77
281.06
7.29
248.07
25.70
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
197
$197.11
$184.74
KS
196-197
$196.87
$184.91
NE
200-202
$197.81
$184.62
IA/MN
200-202
$198.07
$185.56
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 3/4/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
110,468
10,843
-150,116
14,263
355,263
2,905
Feeder Cattle
28,880
736
-11,207
202
77,976
1,540
Lean Hogs
57,480
33,012
-113,296
26,587
276,045
2,229
Corn
219,752
117,702
-539,161
82,291
1,835,602
195
Soybeans
-35,487
43,696
69,293
25,377
817,249
2,691
Live Cattle Markets
April Live cattle finished the week $10.775 off of their lows and settled above $200.000. Resistance levels above the market are 201.975 and 203.275. Support under the market is the 20-day MA of 195.400 and the 100-day MA of 193.200.
Feeder Cattle Markets
April Feeders finished the week $13.000 off the lows and come close to a new contract high on Friday. The contract high of 279.000 is resistance. Support under the market is at 272.550 followed by the 20-day MA of 270.550
Lean Hogs Markets
April Lean Hogs have built a very interesting chart picture. The 20, 50 and 100-day MA all stand at 88.600 which also happens to be our most recent high. Stiff resistance will be at 88.600. Support under the market is at the 200-day MA of 84.225.
Corn Markets
May Corn found support midweek and rallied back to the 38% retracement line each of the last two days. This line at 471 5/8 will be the first resistance line followed by 473 ½. The 50% retracement is at 480 ½ and is an upward area to watch. Support will be at the 200-day MA of 456 ¼ and the 100-day MA of 463 ¾.
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3/7/2025 Market Commmentary
Live Cattle: What a week we’ve seen across the cattle complex. On Tuesday morning, it sure looked like the bears were going to finally get their wish and see a steep sell-off of both Live and Feeder Cattle but both turned on a dime to finish the week sharply higher. Tuesday’s lows were at areas that needed to hold for the chart and technical picture to remain strong and traders did just that. April cattle finishing the day Friday $10.775/cwt off of those lows on Tuesday morning. Higher futures markets also supported the cash market later in the week. Trade in the north mostly waited until Friday and trade took place from 200-202. Boxed beef continues to struggle. Boxes were quoted higher at noon today on decent volume but the choice/select narrowed to $8.22. Overall, it was a volatile week in the cattle complex but both the futures and cash markets found support and traded back above the $200 level.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures pushed to new contract highs in many of the deferred contracts on Friday. It has been a tale of two markets as the cash index has now turned lower and while the futures rally to levels never seen before. The index takes a few days to catch back up after the futures change directions but it does feel like we are starting to see bigger cattle going into the index data along with plenty of wheat cattle from southern states that are preventing the index from remaining at all-time highs.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures finished the week strong with three consecutive days higher. The hog market is obviously very sensitive to tariff talks and their implications for the pork market. Export sales last week were the second largest of 2025 and that could even be extended to last October. Half of last week’s sale volume was to Mexico and now 34% of the year-to-date sales of pork for the U.S. are to Mexico. Slaughter this week was 120,000 hd less than the week prior, mostly due to the weather in the middle of the week. Weights were up slightly this week but overall the industry feels that they are very current and are continuing to move hogs in a timely fashion.
Corn: After a massive sell-off that lasted over two weeks and erased close to $.80 from the nearby corn futures, corn rallied into the end of the week with the rest of the agriculture commodity complex, finishing nearly $.30 off the lows that were posted on Tuesday. The delayed tariff announcement from the White House on Wednesday certainly helped, but ‘too far too fast’ seems to be the phrase that comes to mind. Corn was ready for somewhat of a bounce higher and with a WASDE report out next Tuesday, it was time for some profit-taking and a correction in the market. Last week Mexico bought 10 million bushels of corn and year-to-date, the U.S. has sold 703 million bushels to Mexico which is 36% of current sales.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
Mar 11- WASDE Report
Mar 31- Perspective Planting Report
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 3/4/2025
Live Cattle Markets
April Live cattle finished the week $10.775 off of their lows and settled above $200.000. Resistance levels above the market are 201.975 and 203.275. Support under the market is the 20-day MA of 195.400 and the 100-day MA of 193.200.
Feeder Cattle Markets
April Feeders finished the week $13.000 off the lows and come close to a new contract high on Friday. The contract high of 279.000 is resistance. Support under the market is at 272.550 followed by the 20-day MA of 270.550
Lean Hogs Markets
April Lean Hogs have built a very interesting chart picture. The 20, 50 and 100-day MA all stand at 88.600 which also happens to be our most recent high. Stiff resistance will be at 88.600. Support under the market is at the 200-day MA of 84.225.
Corn Markets
May Corn found support midweek and rallied back to the 38% retracement line each of the last two days. This line at 471 5/8 will be the first resistance line followed by 473 ½. The 50% retracement is at 480 ½ and is an upward area to watch. Support will be at the 200-day MA of 456 ¼ and the 100-day MA of 463 ¾.