3/7/2025 Market Commmentary

Live Cattle: What a week we’ve seen across the cattle complex. On Tuesday morning, it sure looked like the bears were going to finally get their wish and see a steep sell-off of both Live and Feeder Cattle but both turned on a dime to finish the week sharply higher. Tuesday’s lows were at areas that needed to hold for the chart and technical picture to remain strong and traders did just that. April cattle finishing the day Friday $10.775/cwt off of those lows on Tuesday morning. Higher futures markets also supported the cash market later in the week. Trade in the north mostly waited until Friday and trade took place from 200-202. Boxed beef continues to struggle. Boxes were quoted higher at noon today on decent volume but the choice/select narrowed to $8.22. Overall, it was a volatile week in the cattle complex but both the futures and cash markets found support and traded back above the $200 level.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures pushed to new contract highs in many of the deferred contracts on Friday. It has been a tale of two markets as the cash index has now turned lower and while the futures rally to levels never seen before. The index takes a few days to catch back up after the futures change directions but it does feel like we are starting to see bigger cattle going into the index data along with plenty of wheat cattle from southern states that are preventing the index from remaining at all-time highs.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures finished the week strong with three consecutive days higher. The hog market is obviously very sensitive to tariff talks and their implications for the pork market. Export sales last week were the second largest of 2025 and that could even be extended to last October. Half of last week’s sale volume was to Mexico and now 34% of the year-to-date sales of pork for the U.S. are to Mexico. Slaughter this week was 120,000 hd less than the week prior, mostly due to the weather in the middle of the week. Weights were up slightly this week but overall the industry feels that they are very current and are continuing to move hogs in a timely fashion.

Corn: After a massive sell-off that lasted over two weeks and erased close to $.80 from the nearby corn futures, corn rallied into the end of the week with the rest of the agriculture commodity complex, finishing nearly $.30 off the lows that were posted on Tuesday. The delayed tariff announcement from the White House on Wednesday certainly helped, but ‘too far too fast’ seems to be the phrase that comes to mind. Corn was ready for somewhat of a bounce higher and with a WASDE report out next Tuesday, it was time for some profit-taking and a correction in the market. Last week Mexico bought 10 million bushels of corn and year-to-date, the U.S. has sold 703 million bushels to Mexico which is 36% of current sales.

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn May 469.25 5.25
CHI Wheat May 551.25 2.75
KC Wheat May 564.75 1.00
MN Wheat May 592.75 1.25
Soybeans May 1025.00 2.25
Soy Oil May 43.42 0.25
Soy Meal May 304.40 0.50
Live Cattle April 200.275 4.000
Feeder Cattle April 278.150 3.725
Lean Hogs April 87.350 0.700
Crude Oil April 67.07 0.71
Ch Cutout 314.31 1.19
Sel Cutout 306.09 2.58
Feeder Index 273.77 2.32
Pork Cutout 96.49 0.01
Dollar Index 103.790 0.2380
DOW 42,841 225
National Corn Basis -37.28 0.93
National Bean Basis -67.32 0.49

Dates to Remember

Mar 11- WASDE Report

Mar 31- Perspective Planting Report

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 87.350 83.675 3.675 84.525 2.825
National Cash 90.77 89.49 1.28 77.17 13.60
Index 90.18 89.39 0.79 81.48 8.70
Cutout 96.49 100.96 4.47 91.15 5.34
IA/SMN Cash 91.31 89.44 1.87 80.70 10.61
IA/SMN Weights 289.10 288.10 1.00 287.30 1.80
Slaughter 2,418,000 2,538,000 120,000 2,440,332 22,332

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 200-202 197.81 3-5 Higher 184.62 16.38
South Cash 197 196.87 Steady-2 Higher 184.91 12.09
North Steer Basis 2.00 1.00 1.00 -2.51 4.51
Choice Boxes 314.31 311.82 2.49 306.61 7.70
Select Boxes 306.09 302.06 4.03 296.23 9.86
Spread 8.22 9.76 1.54 10.35 2.13
Carcass Weights 875 877 2 834 41
Slaughter 578,000 566,000 12,000 583,995 5,995
FC Index 273.77 281.06 7.29 248.07 25.70

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM 197 $197.11 $184.74
KS 196-197 $196.87 $184.91
NE 200-202 $197.81 $184.62
IA/MN 200-202 $198.07 $185.56

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 3/4/2025
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 110,468 10,843 -150,116 14,263 355,263 2,905
Feeder Cattle 28,880 736 -11,207 202 77,976 1,540
Lean Hogs 57,480 33,012 -113,296 26,587 276,045 2,229
Corn 219,752 117,702 -539,161 82,291 1,835,602 195
Soybeans -35,487 43,696 69,293 25,377 817,249 2,691

Live Cattle Markets

April Live cattle finished the week $10.775 off of their lows and settled above $200.000. Resistance levels above the market are 201.975 and 203.275. Support under the market is the 20-day MA of 195.400 and the 100-day MA of 193.200.

Feeder Cattle Markets

April Feeders finished the week $13.000 off the lows and come close to a new contract high on Friday. The contract high of 279.000 is resistance. Support under the market is at 272.550 followed by the 20-day MA of 270.550

Lean Hogs Markets

April Lean Hogs have built a very interesting chart picture. The 20, 50 and 100-day MA all stand at 88.600 which also happens to be our most recent high. Stiff resistance will be at 88.600. Support under the market is at the 200-day MA of 84.225.

Corn Markets

May Corn found support midweek and rallied back to the 38% retracement line each of the last two days. This line at 471 5/8 will be the first resistance line followed by 473 ½. The 50% retracement is at 480 ½ and is an upward area to watch. Support will be at the 200-day MA of 456 ¼ and the 100-day MA of 463 ¾.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

Let's Talk

Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern US and Central Plains.

Nebraska Location

4809 S 114th St
Omaha, NE 68137

Iowa Location

4280 Sergeant Rd, Ste 240
Sioux City, IA 51106

General Contact

PO Box 45978
Omaha, NE 68145

Business Hours

Monday – Friday

8:00 A.M. – 4:00 P.M.

Regional Summits

Find an Event Near You

It’s Regional Summit season! Click here to view our upcoming events in your area and RSVP.