4/14/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures posted another round of contract highs today and the April contract posted a new all-time high in the process. Optimism for future cash trade and the managed money pouring into the complex over the past few weeks has caused the June contract to gain nearly $20.000/cwt in the past 13 trading sessions and has only closed lower two of those days. Cash trade for the week has yet to be established but asking prices continue to rise with the optimism in the futures market. Last week’s cash trade never really developed as feedlots priced most cattle from 250-252 and the packers were only willing to pay 248-249. This resulted in an abnormally low amount of cattle traded and leaves the packers very short on inventory heading into this week. The packers have made it clear they are unwilling to pay much more, but basis traders are faced with a very challenging situation with historically low basis levels. Total slaughter numbers will most likely dip below 500,000 head per week going forward as packers again try to ration inventory of available fat cattle and also help support boxed beef prices. This morning, choice was quoted $2.86 higher at $384.78 while select was $0.56 lower at $383.08 and the choice/select spread returned to positive territory as a result. Going forward, cattle will be in tight hands as feedlots will not be looking to sell the calf crop at minimal basis levels. Cattle that are typically sold near the beginning of May for exceptional basis levels will get fed longer until the market realigns or those cattle are much bigger than normal.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures also posted new contract highs today across all months but remain under the all-time high of 381.025 that was set last October. The CME Feeder Cattle index was quoted $7.27 higher yesterday at $373.94 following Friday’s sales. Today’s release was $1.08 higher at $375.02. The all-time record was set on February 20 at $377.37, just $2.35 above current values. Last week’s CFTC Report showed very limited fund buying within the complex, but this week’s report will most likely show big involvement from the managed money sector. The Mexican border has started to re-enter the news over the past few weeks and traders attempt to guess when the border may re-open. This topic has been lost in the news as other geopolitical issues and economic factors have taken center stage. It is interesting to note that there are numerous cases of Screwworm getting reported daily from Mexico, but for now, the market has become callused to all of the news.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures have now finished lower six days in a row in the most active June contract and have lost $5.300/cwt over that time. Last Friday’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as buyers of 3,853 contracts for the week ending on Tuesday. This week’s report will show a decrease in length from the funds as the market has lost ground over the past week. The push lower has returned the market to the lowest levels of 2026 and today’s low in the June contract matched the low set on January 2 before the market gained nearly $10.000 over the course of the next month. The pork cutout was quoted at $99.14 yesterday and back to the high end of the range for this year. Pork has underperformed compared to most expectations given the current price of beef. The thought of consumers moving demand to pork at the meat counter was hopeful for pork prices. Although the shift has taken place to some extent, price points are not reflecting huge increases in demand.

Corn: Corn futures finished the day mixed with the old crop contracts finishing higher and the new crop and further deferreds finishing slightly lower. The corn market had another disappointing close today after a very disappointing close last week and a not so great move yesterday. The technical picture flipped negative in the middle of last week and yesterday’s surge in crude oil prices could not hold the Corn market higher. Today, crude oil is sharply lower and Corn lost the somewhat large gains from this morning. Export inspections for last week showed another good week of corn shipments and were above the 10-week average. Corn exports for the year are nearing 2.000 billion bushels already and well ahead of the pace needed to meet the record export goal the USDA has set. Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that 5% of the nation’s Corn crop is planted. This total will continue to jump as more regions of the country are nearing planting dates. This report will become more closely watched as we head into the month of May.