4/17/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Cash trade took place late in the trading day on Thursday at higher money compared to a week ago. Small trade started at 210 and 332 but was increased to 212 and 335 with most packers participating. Some feedlots are still holding out for 213 or 214 this week. April futures added $7.350 this week on the hopes of better cash and overall stability compared to previous weeks. The equity markets saw a decrease in volatility and were overall steady throughout the week. Boxed beef was steady as well, choice is up $.58 on the week while select was up $2.25. Slaughter through the first four days of the week was relatively good as kill should be light on Friday and Saturday ahead of the Easter holiday. Total slaughter expectations are similar to last week’s 564,000 head. The USDA released their monthly Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon showing cattle on feed were 98% compared to a year ago, placements were up 5% and marketings were up 1%. This was a quarterly Cattle on Feed Report so there is a steer and heifer breakdown of cattle on feed. Steers were 100% of a year ago and heifers were 96%.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished higher every day this week and will show a gain of $8.150. The CME feeder cattle index set a new all-time high today at $293.57 which is up $5.54 on the day. The demand for feeder cattle seems to be nothing short of amazing and the prices that are being paid continue to increase. There’s no question that stability in the equity markets has helped the futures this week but the cash fundamentals are driving the market back to near contract highs. March placements in Texas were up 1% indicating that Mexican feeder cattle coming into the U.S. has picked back up and starting to flow more normally.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures found support yesterday as trade negotiations took place with Japan. Japan is currently the United State’s number two customer for pork behind Mexico. Some people are also speculating that this could widen negotiations with China. The cash fundamentals that were on a lower slide have now turned higher and the seasonality of the pork markets lines up with all fundamentals beginning to work higher from this point forward. Exports remain top of conversation across the swine and pork sector. Weakness with the U.S. Dollar, especially against other currencies, should help our somewhat poor export program for 2025. Exports so far in 2025 have been less than 2024 and are below projections for the year.

Corn: Corn futures finished the week trading sideways as traders let the planting season progress and look for updated extended forecasts. Ethanol production last week was down 9,000 barrels a day from the previous week but very comparable to last year. Ethanol in storage is also well above a year ago but much lower on the week. Export demand remains strong as we saw multiple flash sales of corn this week and keeps the current pace well above what’s needed to meet the USDA’s export goal.

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn July 490.25 1.50
CHI Wheat July 562.25 1.25
KC Wheat July 570.00 2.25
MN Wheat July 619.25 2.25
Soybeans July 1047.75 2.50
Soy Oil July 48.34 0.34
Soy Meal July 303.10 1.10
Live Cattle June 204.075 2.000
Feeder Cattle May 286.850 2.450
Lean Hogs June 98.025 0.075
Crude Oil June 63.95 2.12
Ch Cutout 334.87 1.34
Sel Cutout 317.21 2.82
Feeder Index 293.57 5.54
Pork Cutout 92.04 0.31
Dollar Index 99.422 0.0420
DOW 39,364 305
National Corn Basis -26.76 0.32
National Bean Basis -54.6 0.08

Dates to Remember

April 17- April Feeder Cattle Expiration

April 17- Cattle on Feed Report

April 18- No Markets

April 30- April Live Cattle Expiration

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 90.400 86.000 4.400 94.925 4.525
National Cash 86.22 85.67 0.55 89.13 2.91
Index 85.09 86.86 1.77 91.46 6.37
Cutout 92.04 89.70 2.34 99.55 7.51
IA/SMN Cash 86.58 86.25 0.33 90.15 3.57
IA/SMN Weights 291.00 292.00 1.00 288.00 3.00
Slaughter 2,492,000 2,514,000 22,000 2,481,486 10,514

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 210-213 207.88 2-5 Higher 183.07 27.93
South Cash 210 204.00 4-6 Higher 181.94 28.06
North Steer Basis 2.25 7.60 5.35 1.97 0.28
Choice Boxes 334.87 334.29 0.58 296.81 38.06
Select Boxes 317.21 314.96 2.25 290.88 26.33
Spread 17.66 19.33 1.67 5.93 11.73
Carcass Weights 877 876 1 847 30
Slaughter 564,000 591,000 27,000 597,882 33,882
FC Index 293.57 287.29 6.28 245.49 48.08

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM 210 $204.00 $181.95
KS 210 $204.00 $181.94
NE 210-213 $207.88 $183.07
IA/MN 210-212 $208.08 $183.72

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 4/8/2025
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 118,503 24,274 -166,904 18,146 331,113 2,717
Feeder Cattle 28,037 5,332 -10,067 3,470 69,836 1,024
Lean Hogs 36,262 19,064 -101,700 11,783 264,122 6,039
Corn 53,576 3,181 -331,811 4,933 1,706,255 17,740
Soybeans -50,447 20,600 -81,365 21,775 810,512 5,359

Live Cattle Markets

June Live Cattle filled the gap left at the beginning of April today. Resistance will now be at the contract high of 207.725. Support is a the 20-day MA of 201.175 and the 199.400 area.

Feeder Cattle Markets

May Feeder Cattle broke through the 20-day MA this week and quickly found support. Support below the market is at 284.400 and then the 20-day MA of 281.925. Resistance is at 287.925 and then the contract high of 290.625.

Lean Hogs Markets

June Lean Hogs traded right up to resistance on Thursday before settling fractionally higher. Resistance is in the 98.850 area and then 99.700. Support under the market is at the 20-day MA of 94.900.

Corn Markets

July Corn settled into a sideways trade to finish the week. Resistance is at 497 1/2 and support is at 487 short term. Longer term resistance is at 500 and support is at 474 1/2.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

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