4/2/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures pushed to new contract highs in a few contract months as the cash market finally perked up and supported the latest move in the futures market. Cash trade took place in the North at mainly 245-246 on a live basis and 385 dressed. This would be $10 higher than last week’s live averages and $13 higher than the dressed averages. The South traded at 245-246 as well today. The highest weekly weighted average for Nebraska was 247.40 during the last week of February this year. This week will fall short of that number, but we are nearing the all-time highest cash market. These sharply higher cash prices came as a bit of a surprise to the market. Everyone was expecting a higher market this week but thought it would be a stretch to add this much in one week. Open interest within the complex increased nearly 10,000 contracts on Tuesday and Wednesday this week after not seeing any material increases for the first three days of this rally. This would indicate that the managed money has began to buy the complex. Tomorrow’s CFTC Report will show the current position of the funds as of this Tuesday. Boxed beef was lower this morning with choice being down $3.99 to $390.43 and select $4.91 lower at $387.68. This week, the cattle complex disconnected itself from the outside markets as crude oil continues to work higher and the stock market works lower. The past ten days, the fundamentals within the cattle complex took over and the markets have pushed near all-time highs.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures continue to be the leaders of the cattle complex and the most active May contract has gained $22.825/cwt in the last six trading sessions. This move has the same feeling that took place at the beginning of October when the Feeder Cattle finished higher for ten straight days and gained 11% over that time. Surprisingly, the chart set up looks nearly identical to the two weeks leading into that move. The CME Feeder Cattle index continues to work higher as the futures market has allowed feedlots to pay more for cattle to place into their yards. Corn futures have also failed to sustain any long-lasting rallies. Today, the index was quoted $0.01 lower at $366.81 through Wednesday’s sales.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures traded up to technical resistance levels this week and have now returned to levels from before the Hogs and Pigs Report. Longer term support levels lie near today’s lows and traders will look to these levels to help move the market back higher next week. The national cash average is down $0.72 compared to a week ago and is currently at $90.17. The Lean Hog index was down $0.07 yesterday at $90.41 and has now been quoted lower nine days in a row. The pork cutout traded down to $95.58 yesterday and is at the second lowest level in the last 45 days. The futures market has gone nowhere fast this week as it ran into overhead resistance at the 20-day MA twice this week and then returned to the 100-day MA to end the week. A breakout past either of those lines will set the direction and tone of the Lean Hog complex for the next 30 days.

Corn: Corn futures could not trade higher despite the crude oil market posting new highs in the overnight session. President Trump addressed the nation last night and indicated that the conflict in Iran is not cooling off and in the next two to three weeks there could be escalation. The crude oil market ran higher on this news and the Corn market followed suit throughout the night but could not hold those gains throughout the day. Corn futures traded up to the 20-day MA each of the last two days but finished lower each of those days. The market continues to digest Tuesday’s Prospective Planting Report and the higher acre total than the pre-report expectations. This week’s ethanol production was down slightly from the previous week but still remains at solid numbers. Ethanol margins continue to in the black and that has helped plants run at good levels. The market focus will shift to planting delays and weather throughout the growing season.