4/21/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures spent the majority of the day sharply lower after trading over a dollar higher this morning. Last week’s cash trade developed at mainly 248 across all regions with some 246 and 247 that traded after the board had broke lower on Friday. This is the second week in a row where the cash market fell short of expectations with most feedlots wanting 250 or more for their cattle. Although 248 is still near the all-time record high for cash cattle, the market needs to be fed bullish news, and two weeks in a row of stagnant cash activity has lead the futures market to react in a negative manner. Boxed beef has began to work higher again and both choice and select were quoted sharply higher this morning. Choice was $3.49 higher at $387.05 and select was $5.45 higher at $389.06. The choice/select spread has returned to the negative area and is currently at -$2.01. With the nation continuing to run at record levels of choice and prime beef, it has been an uphill battle for choice to sustain any big moves to the upside. With the overall high price of beef, consumers have been gravitating toward select cuts and ground beef, helping support the price of select boxes. Cash trade this week has been quiet with no packer inquiry and feedlots unsure as to what the market could be.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures have finished lower five days in a row and have lost over $19.000 since setting a new contract high a week ago. The Feeder Cattle index has also began moving lower after setting a new all-time high of $379.09 last week. Today, the index was quoted $1.32 lower at $374.37. It appears the managed money has been liquidating positions as uncertainty within the outside markets have created uncertainty within the beef markets. The main culprit that started the move lower was Secretary of Ag, Brooke Rollins being in Texas at the end of the week. This feels a lot like the same situation that happened a year ago where many feared what would be said at the next press conference. There is no known plan of a widespread opening of the Mexican border, but it would not be surprising to hear of some sort of phased reopening being planned. Most all contracts held onto technical support levels earlier today and actually traded back positive before selling off and finishing near the lows of the day.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures gapped higher this morning and had quietly added $3.550 from Friday’s low to today’s high. The pork cutout broke through the $100 level yesterday for the first time since March 16, and was quoted $1.00 higher at $100.20. Last week’s slaughter was revised 16,000 head lower than the initial estimate which helped support the pork cutout. Last week, the most active June contract traded near the $100.000 mark and looks to have created support at that level. All of the cash fundamentals are higher than a week ago, lead by the national cash average which is at $91.13 and $3.09 higher than the same time last week. The 20-day MA is slightly above today’s high and will be the first line of resistance for the market to trade through.

Corn: Corn futures have finished higher both days this week as the crude oil market has been supportive. Tensions in Iran have been back and forth since the end of last week causing the oil market to trade sharply in each direction. Weekly export inspections were impressive again this week and keep the U.S. ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA export Goal. Mexico, Japan, and South Korea remain the top destinations. There were two flash sales of exports this morning, one to Columbia and one to an unknown destination. The USDA Crop Progress Report that was released yesterday showed Corn planting at 11% complete with the majority of the acres planted being in the southern states. The Corn market continues to look for bullish news outside of the tensions in the Middle East. Planting progress, summer weather, and surprises in demand will be watched closely in the coming months.