4/22/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures have started the week mixed after finishing everyday higher last week. Cash trade last week was higher across all regions and as high as 215 in Iowa. Boxed beef was higher this morning with choice up 1.53 to 335.05 and select up 1.40 to 320.17. Expectations for cash cattle this week is the trade to be higher. Slower kill pace and narrower packer margin may hamper these hopes a little, but overall there are tight numbers of ready fat cattle for the packers to pick from, creating competition for those cattle. Last week’s CFTC data showed the funds being sellers of nearly 12,000 contracts on the week, reducing their net long position to 106,000 contracts. The all-time record is 156,909, which was just a few months ago. Overall stability within the equity markets and higher cash trade have helped push cattle futures to near contract highs and new contract highs in the April contract.

Lean Hogs: The pork cutout was up $4.00 on Friday, putting it back to the $97.00 mark. Slaughter was light last week at 2.38 million head with shortened harvest hours on Friday and Saturday. This week, cash trade started off on the right foot as well, with a small gain on Monday and $2.95 gain on Tuesday’s morning report. The trading months of June and July closed back over the $100 mark for the first time since the end of February, as they posted $2.00 gains today, which puts a premium back into the summer months compared to the index. On the latest CFTC report, the money managers bought nearly 4,000 contracts, which brings a net long of 40K contracts and puts the funds in the midpoint of the historical levels.

Feeder Cattle: After setting a new all-time high last week, the CME feeder cattle index has dropped back below 290.000. The story of tight feeder cattle supplies has not changed, and an increase in Live Cattle futures has helped increase the bids in the sale barns. The only “miss” on last Thursday’s Cattle on Feed report was the placement number being 1% higher than expected. According to that data, imports from Mexico appear to be getting smoother than when the border reopened. Cattle on feed in the southern states is still 188,000 head less than a year ago, but that number should continue to narrow as feeder cattle continue to flow into the United States.

Corn: Corn futures broke below their sideways trading range today. There are some moving average lines that have all come together near today’s low to another 5 cents lower. The wheat market seems to be an anchor to the corn market at this time as demand within that complex is somewhat weak, and rains have been falling across the plains, helping their wheat crop. Corn planting in the U.S. is now 12% complete, which is above last year and the 5-year average. The export inspection report yesterday showed another good week for corn loadings, which is the second week in a row. Overall export demand has remained strong and is helping chew through the U.S. carryout and keep supplies in check.