Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures have started the week mixed after finishing everyday higher last week. Cash trade last week was higher across all regions and as high as 215 in Iowa. Boxed beef was higher this morning with choice up 1.53 to 335.05 and select up 1.40 to 320.17. Expectations for cash cattle this week is the trade to be higher. Slower kill pace and narrower packer margin may hamper these hopes a little, but overall there are tight numbers of ready fat cattle for the packers to pick from, creating competition for those cattle. Last week’s CFTC data showed the funds being sellers of nearly 12,000 contracts on the week, reducing their net long position to 106,000 contracts. The all-time record is 156,909, which was just a few months ago. Overall stability within the equity markets and higher cash trade have helped push cattle futures to near contract highs and new contract highs in the April contract.
Lean Hogs: The pork cutout was up $4.00 on Friday, putting it back to the $97.00 mark. Slaughter was light last week at 2.38 million head with shortened harvest hours on Friday and Saturday. This week, cash trade started off on the right foot as well, with a small gain on Monday and $2.95 gain on Tuesday’s morning report. The trading months of June and July closed back over the $100 mark for the first time since the end of February, as they posted $2.00 gains today, which puts a premium back into the summer months compared to the index. On the latest CFTC report, the money managers bought nearly 4,000 contracts, which brings a net long of 40K contracts and puts the funds in the midpoint of the historical levels.
Feeder Cattle: After setting a new all-time high last week, the CME feeder cattle index has dropped back below 290.000. The story of tight feeder cattle supplies has not changed, and an increase in Live Cattle futures has helped increase the bids in the sale barns. The only “miss” on last Thursday’s Cattle on Feed report was the placement number being 1% higher than expected. According to that data, imports from Mexico appear to be getting smoother than when the border reopened. Cattle on feed in the southern states is still 188,000 head less than a year ago, but that number should continue to narrow as feeder cattle continue to flow into the United States.
Corn: Corn futures broke below their sideways trading range today. There are some moving average lines that have all come together near today’s low to another 5 cents lower. The wheat market seems to be an anchor to the corn market at this time as demand within that complex is somewhat weak, and rains have been falling across the plains, helping their wheat crop. Corn planting in the U.S. is now 12% complete, which is above last year and the 5-year average. The export inspection report yesterday showed another good week for corn loadings, which is the second week in a row. Overall export demand has remained strong and is helping chew through the U.S. carryout and keep supplies in check.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
July
483.25
6.75
CHI Wheat
July
550.25
2.00
KC Wheat
July
558.25
5.50
MN Wheat
July
610.25
3.75
Soybeans
July
1046.00
4.50
Soy Oil
July
48.03
0.28
Soy Meal
July
299.50
0.80
Live Cattle
June
206.275
2.525
Feeder Cattle
May
286.925
1.400
Lean Hogs
June
100.275
2.225
Crude Oil
June
63.47
1.06
Ch Cutout
335.05
1.53
Sel Cutout
320.17
1.40
Feeder Index
288.78
0.52
Pork Cutout
96.39
0.61
Dollar Index
98.905
0.6270
DOW
39,127
957
National Corn Basis
-26.75
0.05
National Bean Basis
-53.30
0.59
Dates to Remember
April 24- Cold Storage Report
April 30- April Live Cattle Expiration
May12- Crop Production/WASDE
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
92.225
88.200
4.025
96.700
4.475
National Cash
83.59
81.99
1.60
90.31
6.72
Index
85.71
86.00
0.29
91.45
5.74
Cutout
96.39
92.78
3.61
101.70
5.31
IA/SMN Cash
91.02
83.17
7.85
90.91
0.11
IA/SMN Weights
291.00
292.00
1.00
288.00
3.00
Slaughter
2,492,000
2,514,000
22,000
2,481,486
10,514
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
212.60
184.95
South Cash
209.75
182.03
North Steer Basis
3.50
1.97
Choice Boxes
335.05
334.69
0.36
295.93
40.12
Select Boxes
320.17
316.07
4.10
291.87
28.30
Spread
14.88
18.62
3.74
4.06
10.82
Carcass Weights
877
876
1
847
30
Slaughter
564,000
591,000
27,000
597,882
33,882
FC Index
288.78
288.07
0.71
242.11
46.67
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$208.96
$181.91
KS
$209.75
$182.03
NE
$212.60
$184.95
IA/MN
$212.54
$185.49
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 4/18/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
106,523
11,980
-153,973
12,931
336,066
1,347
Feeder Cattle
25,915
2,122
-9,165
902
69,079
816
Lean Hogs
40,222
3,960
-100,775
925
251,991
787
Corn
124,573
70,997
-389,738
57,927
1,709,330
5,829
Soybeans
26,169
76,616
-148,248
66,883
815,592
1,541
Live Cattle Markets
June Live Cattle posted a new high for the move this morning. Resistance is at the contract high of 207.725. Support is at 202.075 and then the 20-day MA of 201.425.
Feeder Cattle Markets
May Feeder Cattle settled well off of their highs today. Resistance is in the 288.250 area before the contract high of 290.625. Support remains at 284.400 and then the 20-day MA of 282.025.
Lean Hogs Markets
June Lean Hogs broke through the 100.000 level again this morning, taking out overhead resistance. The next resistance areas are 101.100 and 101.425. Support lies at 97.275 and then the 95.000 area.
Corn Markets
July corn broke below the trading range that had been built over the last week. Support is at the 50-day MA of 482 and then the 100 and 20-day MA in the 475-477 area. Resistance remains in the 495 area.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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4/22/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures have started the week mixed after finishing everyday higher last week. Cash trade last week was higher across all regions and as high as 215 in Iowa. Boxed beef was higher this morning with choice up 1.53 to 335.05 and select up 1.40 to 320.17. Expectations for cash cattle this week is the trade to be higher. Slower kill pace and narrower packer margin may hamper these hopes a little, but overall there are tight numbers of ready fat cattle for the packers to pick from, creating competition for those cattle. Last week’s CFTC data showed the funds being sellers of nearly 12,000 contracts on the week, reducing their net long position to 106,000 contracts. The all-time record is 156,909, which was just a few months ago. Overall stability within the equity markets and higher cash trade have helped push cattle futures to near contract highs and new contract highs in the April contract.
Lean Hogs: The pork cutout was up $4.00 on Friday, putting it back to the $97.00 mark. Slaughter was light last week at 2.38 million head with shortened harvest hours on Friday and Saturday. This week, cash trade started off on the right foot as well, with a small gain on Monday and $2.95 gain on Tuesday’s morning report. The trading months of June and July closed back over the $100 mark for the first time since the end of February, as they posted $2.00 gains today, which puts a premium back into the summer months compared to the index. On the latest CFTC report, the money managers bought nearly 4,000 contracts, which brings a net long of 40K contracts and puts the funds in the midpoint of the historical levels.
Feeder Cattle: After setting a new all-time high last week, the CME feeder cattle index has dropped back below 290.000. The story of tight feeder cattle supplies has not changed, and an increase in Live Cattle futures has helped increase the bids in the sale barns. The only “miss” on last Thursday’s Cattle on Feed report was the placement number being 1% higher than expected. According to that data, imports from Mexico appear to be getting smoother than when the border reopened. Cattle on feed in the southern states is still 188,000 head less than a year ago, but that number should continue to narrow as feeder cattle continue to flow into the United States.
Corn: Corn futures broke below their sideways trading range today. There are some moving average lines that have all come together near today’s low to another 5 cents lower. The wheat market seems to be an anchor to the corn market at this time as demand within that complex is somewhat weak, and rains have been falling across the plains, helping their wheat crop. Corn planting in the U.S. is now 12% complete, which is above last year and the 5-year average. The export inspection report yesterday showed another good week for corn loadings, which is the second week in a row. Overall export demand has remained strong and is helping chew through the U.S. carryout and keep supplies in check.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
April 24- Cold Storage Report
April 30- April Live Cattle Expiration
May12- Crop Production/WASDE
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 4/18/2025
Live Cattle Markets
June Live Cattle posted a new high for the move this morning. Resistance is at the contract high of 207.725. Support is at 202.075 and then the 20-day MA of 201.425.
Feeder Cattle Markets
May Feeder Cattle settled well off of their highs today. Resistance is in the 288.250 area before the contract high of 290.625. Support remains at 284.400 and then the 20-day MA of 282.025.
Lean Hogs Markets
June Lean Hogs broke through the 100.000 level again this morning, taking out overhead resistance. The next resistance areas are 101.100 and 101.425. Support lies at 97.275 and then the 95.000 area.
Corn Markets
July corn broke below the trading range that had been built over the last week. Support is at the 50-day MA of 482 and then the 100 and 20-day MA in the 475-477 area. Resistance remains in the 495 area.