4/25/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Cash trade has yet to be established this week as packers are bidding as high as 217, while feedlots are asking 218-220. There was small trade to a Kansas regional packer at 338 picked up on a dressed basis. Average carcass weights this week were unchanged from the week prior but are 29 lbs heavier than a year ago. Slaughter this week was 555,000 head which was down 21,000 compared to a week ago and nearly 59,000 below a year ago. Boxed beef was unchanged to higher this week, but has had a flat trend over the past few weeks. Cow slaughter continues to remain small, keeping the select boxes supported. Year to date cow kill is down 13% from a year ago and is the smallest in 20 years. The cash market is leading the live cattle complex higher as traders are optimistic that the cash market will continue to be strong.

Feeder Cattle: Nearby feeder cattle futures posted a new contract high today. The CME feeder cattle index posted a new record high at the end of last week, before working $6 lower over the course of this week. However, it did show a gain on Friday. Cash feeders continue to set new all-time records across all classes of feeders. The feeder cattle complex is not seeing an increase in open interest like the live cattle have, but is still rather large compared to normal.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures finished the week higher after posting new highs for the move mid-week. Export sales yesterday showed just 6,000 tonnes of pork, which included a cancellation from China for 12,000 tonnes. The cancellation sure looks to be tariff related and is making traders wonder what lies ahead for pork demand, especially in the export market. This cancellation wipes out almost all of the unshipped sales that China had on the books. The USDA cold storage report this week showed total pork supplies down 9% compared to a year ago. The loins, ribs and butts are all near 5-year lows while bellies are creeping back to normal. Most cash fundamentals were steady to lower this week with the exception of the national cash average which was up over $7.

Corn: The corn market appears to be falling victim to a lower wheat market this week but finished mixed to end the week. After falling below the sideways range that had been built, corn futures tested the 100 and 20-day moving averages and turned back higher. Export sales were good again this week, rounding out a very good month of April for export inspections. The U.S. is now 50-60 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to meet the current export goal. There was a flash sale of 235,000 MT of corn to Mexico this morning, 130,000 was for old crop and 105,000 for new crop. The Argentine corn crop saw an improvement in conditions again this week, keeping global supplies in the future plentiful.

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn July 485.50 1.50
CHI Wheat July 545.00 0.50
KC Wheat July 551.00 0.25
MN Wheat July 606.25 1.50
Soybeans July 1059.25 2.75
Soy Oil July 49.81 0.26
Soy Meal July 298.50 1.80
Live Cattle June 208.250 0.250
Feeder Cattle May 290.525 1.450
Lean Hogs June 101.150 1.225
Crude Oil June 63.06 0.27
Ch Cutout 335.16 1.46
Sel Cutout 319.39 3.04
Feeder Index 289.88 2.64
Pork Cutout 95.86 1.78
Dollar Index 99.470 0.0930
DOW 40,098 5
National Corn Basis -26.17 0.30
National Bean Basis -50.90 0.66

Dates to Remember

April 30- April Live Cattle Expiration

May12- Crop Production/WASDE

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 92.800 90.400 2.400 95.275 2.475
National Cash 91.31 86.22 5.09 88.71 2.60
Index 85.75 85.09 0.66 90.88 5.13
Cutout 95.86 92.04 3.82 97.49 1.63
IA/SMN Cash 92.02 86.58 5.44 90.12 1.90
IA/SMN Weights 291.30 291.00 0.30 287.00 4.30
Slaughter 2,430,000 2,371,000 59,000 2,377,844 52,156

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 217-218 212.60 5 Higher 184.95 32.55
South Cash 212 209.75 2-3 Higher 182.03 29.97
North Steer Basis 3.50 3.50 0.00 1.97 1.00
Choice Boxes 335.16 334.87 0.29 296.92 38.24
Select Boxes 319.39 317.21 2.18 289.66 29.73
Spread 15.77 17.66 1.89 7.26 8.51
Carcass Weights 877 877 0 848 29
Slaughter 555,000 576,000 21,000 613,723 58,723
FC Index 289.88 293.57 3.69 245.15 44.73

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM 210-212 $208.96 $181.91
KS 210-212 $209.75 $182.03
NE 217-218 $212.60 $184.95
IA/MN 217-218 $212.54 $185.49

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 4/15/2025
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 120,460 13,937 -161,590 7,617 347,918 3,533
Feeder Cattle 28,061 2,146 -11,548 2,383 67,161 469
Lean Hogs 58,457 18,235 -114,509 13,734 264,782 1,507
Corn 112,805 11,768 -358,146 31,592 1,669,695 26,893
Soybeans 31,067 4,898 -146,694 1,554 815,870 65

Live Cattle Markets

June Live Cattle posted a new contract high of 208.800 this week. Resistance is at that contract high. Small support is at 206.500 followed by the 20-day MA at 202.100.

Feeder Cattle Markets

May Feeder Cattle finished higher each of the final four days this week and posted a new contract high on Friday. Resistance is at the contract high of 290.950 while support lies at 284.925.

Lean Hogs Markets

Lean Hogs posted new highs for the move on Wednesday before trading lower. Resistance will be at that high of 101.425 and then 101.950. The first support line is at 98.600 and then 97.275.

Corn Markets

Nearby corn rebounded the final two days of the week. Support is the 20-day MA of 479 1/4 and the 100-day MA at 478 1/4. Resistance is at 495 and then 497 1/2.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

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