Live Cattle: Cash trade has yet to be established this week as packers are bidding as high as 217, while feedlots are asking 218-220. There was small trade to a Kansas regional packer at 338 picked up on a dressed basis. Average carcass weights this week were unchanged from the week prior but are 29 lbs heavier than a year ago. Slaughter this week was 555,000 head which was down 21,000 compared to a week ago and nearly 59,000 below a year ago. Boxed beef was unchanged to higher this week, but has had a flat trend over the past few weeks. Cow slaughter continues to remain small, keeping the select boxes supported. Year to date cow kill is down 13% from a year ago and is the smallest in 20 years. The cash market is leading the live cattle complex higher as traders are optimistic that the cash market will continue to be strong.
Feeder Cattle: Nearby feeder cattle futures posted a new contract high today. The CME feeder cattle index posted a new record high at the end of last week, before working $6 lower over the course of this week. However, it did show a gain on Friday. Cash feeders continue to set new all-time records across all classes of feeders. The feeder cattle complex is not seeing an increase in open interest like the live cattle have, but is still rather large compared to normal.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures finished the week higher after posting new highs for the move mid-week. Export sales yesterday showed just 6,000 tonnes of pork, which included a cancellation from China for 12,000 tonnes. The cancellation sure looks to be tariff related and is making traders wonder what lies ahead for pork demand, especially in the export market. This cancellation wipes out almost all of the unshipped sales that China had on the books. The USDA cold storage report this week showed total pork supplies down 9% compared to a year ago. The loins, ribs and butts are all near 5-year lows while bellies are creeping back to normal. Most cash fundamentals were steady to lower this week with the exception of the national cash average which was up over $7.
Corn: The corn market appears to be falling victim to a lower wheat market this week but finished mixed to end the week. After falling below the sideways range that had been built, corn futures tested the 100 and 20-day moving averages and turned back higher. Export sales were good again this week, rounding out a very good month of April for export inspections. The U.S. is now 50-60 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to meet the current export goal. There was a flash sale of 235,000 MT of corn to Mexico this morning, 130,000 was for old crop and 105,000 for new crop. The Argentine corn crop saw an improvement in conditions again this week, keeping global supplies in the future plentiful.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
July
485.50
1.50
CHI Wheat
July
545.00
0.50
KC Wheat
July
551.00
0.25
MN Wheat
July
606.25
1.50
Soybeans
July
1059.25
2.75
Soy Oil
July
49.81
0.26
Soy Meal
July
298.50
1.80
Live Cattle
June
208.250
0.250
Feeder Cattle
May
290.525
1.450
Lean Hogs
June
101.150
1.225
Crude Oil
June
63.06
0.27
Ch Cutout
335.16
1.46
Sel Cutout
319.39
3.04
Feeder Index
289.88
2.64
Pork Cutout
95.86
1.78
Dollar Index
99.470
0.0930
DOW
40,098
5
National Corn Basis
-26.17
0.30
National Bean Basis
-50.90
0.66
Dates to Remember
April 30- April Live Cattle Expiration
May12- Crop Production/WASDE
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
92.800
90.400
2.400
95.275
2.475
National Cash
91.31
86.22
5.09
88.71
2.60
Index
85.75
85.09
0.66
90.88
5.13
Cutout
95.86
92.04
3.82
97.49
1.63
IA/SMN Cash
92.02
86.58
5.44
90.12
1.90
IA/SMN Weights
291.30
291.00
0.30
287.00
4.30
Slaughter
2,430,000
2,371,000
59,000
2,377,844
52,156
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
217-218
212.60
5 Higher
184.95
32.55
South Cash
212
209.75
2-3 Higher
182.03
29.97
North Steer Basis
3.50
3.50
0.00
1.97
1.00
Choice Boxes
335.16
334.87
0.29
296.92
38.24
Select Boxes
319.39
317.21
2.18
289.66
29.73
Spread
15.77
17.66
1.89
7.26
8.51
Carcass Weights
877
877
0
848
29
Slaughter
555,000
576,000
21,000
613,723
58,723
FC Index
289.88
293.57
3.69
245.15
44.73
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
210-212
$208.96
$181.91
KS
210-212
$209.75
$182.03
NE
217-218
$212.60
$184.95
IA/MN
217-218
$212.54
$185.49
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 4/15/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
120,460
13,937
-161,590
7,617
347,918
3,533
Feeder Cattle
28,061
2,146
-11,548
2,383
67,161
469
Lean Hogs
58,457
18,235
-114,509
13,734
264,782
1,507
Corn
112,805
11,768
-358,146
31,592
1,669,695
26,893
Soybeans
31,067
4,898
-146,694
1,554
815,870
65
Live Cattle Markets
June Live Cattle posted a new contract high of 208.800 this week. Resistance is at that contract high. Small support is at 206.500 followed by the 20-day MA at 202.100.
Feeder Cattle Markets
May Feeder Cattle finished higher each of the final four days this week and posted a new contract high on Friday. Resistance is at the contract high of 290.950 while support lies at 284.925.
Lean Hogs Markets
Lean Hogs posted new highs for the move on Wednesday before trading lower. Resistance will be at that high of 101.425 and then 101.950. The first support line is at 98.600 and then 97.275.
Corn Markets
Nearby corn rebounded the final two days of the week. Support is the 20-day MA of 479 1/4 and the 100-day MA at 478 1/4. Resistance is at 495 and then 497 1/2.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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4/25/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Cash trade has yet to be established this week as packers are bidding as high as 217, while feedlots are asking 218-220. There was small trade to a Kansas regional packer at 338 picked up on a dressed basis. Average carcass weights this week were unchanged from the week prior but are 29 lbs heavier than a year ago. Slaughter this week was 555,000 head which was down 21,000 compared to a week ago and nearly 59,000 below a year ago. Boxed beef was unchanged to higher this week, but has had a flat trend over the past few weeks. Cow slaughter continues to remain small, keeping the select boxes supported. Year to date cow kill is down 13% from a year ago and is the smallest in 20 years. The cash market is leading the live cattle complex higher as traders are optimistic that the cash market will continue to be strong.
Feeder Cattle: Nearby feeder cattle futures posted a new contract high today. The CME feeder cattle index posted a new record high at the end of last week, before working $6 lower over the course of this week. However, it did show a gain on Friday. Cash feeders continue to set new all-time records across all classes of feeders. The feeder cattle complex is not seeing an increase in open interest like the live cattle have, but is still rather large compared to normal.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures finished the week higher after posting new highs for the move mid-week. Export sales yesterday showed just 6,000 tonnes of pork, which included a cancellation from China for 12,000 tonnes. The cancellation sure looks to be tariff related and is making traders wonder what lies ahead for pork demand, especially in the export market. This cancellation wipes out almost all of the unshipped sales that China had on the books. The USDA cold storage report this week showed total pork supplies down 9% compared to a year ago. The loins, ribs and butts are all near 5-year lows while bellies are creeping back to normal. Most cash fundamentals were steady to lower this week with the exception of the national cash average which was up over $7.
Corn: The corn market appears to be falling victim to a lower wheat market this week but finished mixed to end the week. After falling below the sideways range that had been built, corn futures tested the 100 and 20-day moving averages and turned back higher. Export sales were good again this week, rounding out a very good month of April for export inspections. The U.S. is now 50-60 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to meet the current export goal. There was a flash sale of 235,000 MT of corn to Mexico this morning, 130,000 was for old crop and 105,000 for new crop. The Argentine corn crop saw an improvement in conditions again this week, keeping global supplies in the future plentiful.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
April 30- April Live Cattle Expiration
May12- Crop Production/WASDE
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 4/15/2025
Live Cattle Markets
June Live Cattle posted a new contract high of 208.800 this week. Resistance is at that contract high. Small support is at 206.500 followed by the 20-day MA at 202.100.
Feeder Cattle Markets
May Feeder Cattle finished higher each of the final four days this week and posted a new contract high on Friday. Resistance is at the contract high of 290.950 while support lies at 284.925.
Lean Hogs Markets
Lean Hogs posted new highs for the move on Wednesday before trading lower. Resistance will be at that high of 101.425 and then 101.950. The first support line is at 98.600 and then 97.275.
Corn Markets
Nearby corn rebounded the final two days of the week. Support is the 20-day MA of 479 1/4 and the 100-day MA at 478 1/4. Resistance is at 495 and then 497 1/2.