Live Cattle: Last week’s cash trade and a higher boxed beef market propelled futures to new contract highs to start the week. Cash in the north last week traded from 217-219 which was $4 to $9 higher than the prior week. Boxed beef has been higher each day this week, Tuesday morning choice was up $3.42 to $346.19 and select was down $.31 to $324.81. The choice/select spread has widened out $6.50 in the last week indicating good demand for the upper cuts as we head into peak demand season. There has been a trickle of cash so far this week, 350 on a dressed basis to a Nebraska regional and a 220 bid from that same packer. As of last Tuesday, the managed money was long 120,460 contracts, which was up nearly 14,000 on the week. The funds had reduced their long position during the latest fall in live cattle prices and they currently have some room and buying power to run prices back higher like we have seen over the past three weeks.
Feeder Cattle: The CME feeder cattle index posted a new all time high yesterday and sent futures higher as well. The prices coming out of sale barns are almost unfathomable and continue to be new records week after week. New contract highs were seen across all futures months again on Tuesday pushing the summer and fall months close to the 300.000 level. Most of the futures action appears to be fund buying as the futures scramble to keep up with the cash market. Corn trading double digits lower today also helped support the feeder cattle complex.
Lean Hogs: Lean hog futures traded to new highs for the move Monday before ultimately finishing lower. Follow through selling took place Tuesday and all months finished below the $100 mark. Monday’s highs were right at technical resistance levels, and appears to cap off a near $14 rally over the past three weeks. Cash fundamentals continue to be steady higher as market ready hogs are on the front end of short supplies. Traders will continue to keep an eye on exports, especially after the cancellations to China in last week’s report.
Corn: Nearby corn futures broke below some key technical support areas today and finished the day sharply lower. Moving average lines that had been holding the market over the past few days gave way and fund liquidation ensued. Currently, there is no threat of weather against the U.S. growing season, and the managed money is not interested in placing weather premium into the corn market. Trade relations remain a concern across the entire grain complex as well. The wheat market has been under pressure and has set new contract lows both days this week, as good moisture has fallen in the South and their wheat crop looks to be in decent shape. Planting progress for corn currently stands at 24%, down slightly from last year but above the 5-year average. Export inspections continue to outperform what is needed to meet the USDA goal. Currently the U.S. is set to exceed that goal by nearly 200 million bushels.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
July
470.25
13.00
CHI Wheat
July
525.50
5.50
KC Wheat
July
2531.00
8.75
MN Wheat
July
592.75
4.00
Soybeans
July
1052.75
9.75
Soy Oil
July
49.33
1.13
Soy Meal
July
298.20
2.30
Live Cattle
June
210.200
0.600
Feeder Cattle
May
294.025
2.225
Lean Hogs
June
99.450
1.550
Crude Oil
June
60.34
1.71
Ch Cutout
346.19
3.42
Sel Cutout
324.81
0.31
Feeder Index
293.71
3.83
Pork Cutout
97.62
0.42
Dollar Index
99.283
0.2730
DOW
40,549
321
National Corn Basis
-25.16
0.81
National Bean Basis
-49.54
1.05
Dates to Remember
April 30- April Live Cattle Expiration
May 12- Crop Production/WASDE
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
92.550
92.225
0.325
94.025
1.475
National Cash
90.14
83.59
6.55
89.63
3.51
Index
88.18
85.71
2.47
90.26
2.08
Cutout
97.62
96.39
1.23
99.00
1.38
IA/SMN Cash
90.99
91.02
0.03
90.12
0.87
IA/SMN Weights
291.30
291.00
0.30
287.00
4.30
Slaughter
2,430,000
2,371,000
59,000
2,377,844
52,156
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
217.68
186.63
South Cash
212.45
186.41
North Steer Basis
4.00
1.97
Choice Boxes
346.19
335.05
11.14
297.53
48.66
Select Boxes
324.81
320.17
4.64
290.21
34.60
Spread
21.39
14.88
6.51
7.32
14.07
Carcass Weights
877
877
0
848
29
Slaughter
555,000
576,000
21,000
613,723
58,723
FC Index
293.71
288.07
5.64
247.18
46.53
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$212.00
$184.00
KS
$212.45
$184.01
NE
$217.68
$186.63
IA/MN
$217.19
$186.41
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 4/22/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
120,460
13,937
-161,590
7,617
353,585
3,501
Feeder Cattle
28,061
2,146
-11,548
2,383
69,040
717
Lean Hogs
58,457
18,235
-114,509
13,734
271,324
1,701
Corn
112,805
11,768
-358,146
31,592
1,587,446
34,144
Soybeans
31,067
4,898
-146,694
1,554
769,930
24,512
Live Cattle Markets
June Live Cattle traded to a new contract high and traded through the 210.000 level Tuesday. Resistance will be at the contract high of 210.975. Support is at the 207.000 area and 203.400.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder Cattle posted new contract highs Tuesday. Resistance is at that high of 297.800 and the psychological level of 300.000. Support under the market is at the 291.000 area and the 20-day MA of 288.275.
Lean Hogs Markets
June hogs posted a new high for the move Monday before finishing the day lower. Support is near Monday and Tuesday’s low which lines up with the 100-day MA at 99.450. Resistance is Tuesday’s high of 101.975.
Corn Markets
July Corn could not hold support and finished sharply lower Tuesday. Support lines have now turned into resistance. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 481 and the 100-day MA of 479. Support is at the 200-day MA of 460 1/2.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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4/29/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Last week’s cash trade and a higher boxed beef market propelled futures to new contract highs to start the week. Cash in the north last week traded from 217-219 which was $4 to $9 higher than the prior week. Boxed beef has been higher each day this week, Tuesday morning choice was up $3.42 to $346.19 and select was down $.31 to $324.81. The choice/select spread has widened out $6.50 in the last week indicating good demand for the upper cuts as we head into peak demand season. There has been a trickle of cash so far this week, 350 on a dressed basis to a Nebraska regional and a 220 bid from that same packer. As of last Tuesday, the managed money was long 120,460 contracts, which was up nearly 14,000 on the week. The funds had reduced their long position during the latest fall in live cattle prices and they currently have some room and buying power to run prices back higher like we have seen over the past three weeks.
Feeder Cattle: The CME feeder cattle index posted a new all time high yesterday and sent futures higher as well. The prices coming out of sale barns are almost unfathomable and continue to be new records week after week. New contract highs were seen across all futures months again on Tuesday pushing the summer and fall months close to the 300.000 level. Most of the futures action appears to be fund buying as the futures scramble to keep up with the cash market. Corn trading double digits lower today also helped support the feeder cattle complex.
Lean Hogs: Lean hog futures traded to new highs for the move Monday before ultimately finishing lower. Follow through selling took place Tuesday and all months finished below the $100 mark. Monday’s highs were right at technical resistance levels, and appears to cap off a near $14 rally over the past three weeks. Cash fundamentals continue to be steady higher as market ready hogs are on the front end of short supplies. Traders will continue to keep an eye on exports, especially after the cancellations to China in last week’s report.
Corn: Nearby corn futures broke below some key technical support areas today and finished the day sharply lower. Moving average lines that had been holding the market over the past few days gave way and fund liquidation ensued. Currently, there is no threat of weather against the U.S. growing season, and the managed money is not interested in placing weather premium into the corn market. Trade relations remain a concern across the entire grain complex as well. The wheat market has been under pressure and has set new contract lows both days this week, as good moisture has fallen in the South and their wheat crop looks to be in decent shape. Planting progress for corn currently stands at 24%, down slightly from last year but above the 5-year average. Export inspections continue to outperform what is needed to meet the USDA goal. Currently the U.S. is set to exceed that goal by nearly 200 million bushels.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
April 30- April Live Cattle Expiration
May 12- Crop Production/WASDE
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 4/22/2025
Live Cattle Markets
June Live Cattle traded to a new contract high and traded through the 210.000 level Tuesday. Resistance will be at the contract high of 210.975. Support is at the 207.000 area and 203.400.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder Cattle posted new contract highs Tuesday. Resistance is at that high of 297.800 and the psychological level of 300.000. Support under the market is at the 291.000 area and the 20-day MA of 288.275.
Lean Hogs Markets
June hogs posted a new high for the move Monday before finishing the day lower. Support is near Monday and Tuesday’s low which lines up with the 100-day MA at 99.450. Resistance is Tuesday’s high of 101.975.
Corn Markets
July Corn could not hold support and finished sharply lower Tuesday. Support lines have now turned into resistance. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 481 and the 100-day MA of 479. Support is at the 200-day MA of 460 1/2.