4/29/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Last week’s cash trade and a higher boxed beef market propelled futures to new contract highs to start the week. Cash in the north last week traded from 217-219 which was $4 to $9 higher than the prior week. Boxed beef has been higher each day this week, Tuesday morning choice was up $3.42 to $346.19 and select was down $.31 to $324.81. The choice/select spread has widened out $6.50 in the last week indicating good demand for the upper cuts as we head into peak demand season. There has been a trickle of cash so far this week, 350 on a dressed basis to a Nebraska regional and a 220 bid from that same packer. As of last Tuesday, the managed money was long 120,460 contracts, which was up nearly 14,000 on the week. The funds had reduced their long position during the latest fall in live cattle prices and they currently have some room and buying power to run prices back higher like we have seen over the past three weeks.

Feeder Cattle: The CME feeder cattle index posted a new all time high yesterday and sent futures higher as well. The prices coming out of sale barns are almost unfathomable and continue to be new records week after week. New contract highs were seen across all futures months again on Tuesday pushing the summer and fall months close to the 300.000 level. Most of the futures action appears to be fund buying as the futures scramble to keep up with the cash market. Corn trading double digits lower today also helped support the feeder cattle complex.

Lean Hogs: Lean hog futures traded to new highs for the move Monday before ultimately finishing lower. Follow through selling took place Tuesday and all months finished below the $100 mark. Monday’s highs were right at technical resistance levels, and appears to cap off a near $14 rally over the past three weeks. Cash fundamentals continue to be steady higher as market ready hogs are on the front end of short supplies. Traders will continue to keep an eye on exports, especially after the cancellations to China in last week’s report.

Corn: Nearby corn futures broke below some key technical support areas today and finished the day sharply lower. Moving average lines that had been holding the market over the past few days gave way and fund liquidation ensued. Currently, there is no threat of weather against the U.S. growing season, and the managed money is not interested in placing weather premium into the corn market. Trade relations remain a concern across the entire grain complex as well. The wheat market has been under pressure and has set new contract lows both days this week, as good moisture has fallen in the South and their wheat crop looks to be in decent shape. Planting progress for corn currently stands at 24%, down slightly from last year but above the 5-year average. Export inspections continue to outperform what is needed to meet the USDA goal. Currently the U.S. is set to exceed that goal by nearly 200 million bushels.

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn July 470.25 13.00
CHI Wheat July 525.50 5.50
KC Wheat July 2531.00 8.75
MN Wheat July 592.75 4.00
Soybeans July 1052.75 9.75
Soy Oil July 49.33 1.13
Soy Meal July 298.20 2.30
Live Cattle June 210.200 0.600
Feeder Cattle May 294.025 2.225
Lean Hogs June 99.450 1.550
Crude Oil June 60.34 1.71
Ch Cutout 346.19 3.42
Sel Cutout 324.81 0.31
Feeder Index 293.71 3.83
Pork Cutout 97.62 0.42
Dollar Index 99.283 0.2730
DOW 40,549 321
National Corn Basis -25.16 0.81
National Bean Basis -49.54 1.05

Dates to Remember

April 30- April Live Cattle Expiration

May 12- Crop Production/WASDE

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 92.550 92.225 0.325 94.025 1.475
National Cash 90.14 83.59 6.55 89.63 3.51
Index 88.18 85.71 2.47 90.26 2.08
Cutout 97.62 96.39 1.23 99.00 1.38
IA/SMN Cash 90.99 91.02 0.03 90.12 0.87
IA/SMN Weights 291.30 291.00 0.30 287.00 4.30
Slaughter 2,430,000 2,371,000 59,000 2,377,844 52,156

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 217.68 186.63
South Cash 212.45 186.41
North Steer Basis 4.00 1.97
Choice Boxes 346.19 335.05 11.14 297.53 48.66
Select Boxes 324.81 320.17 4.64 290.21 34.60
Spread 21.39 14.88 6.51 7.32 14.07
Carcass Weights 877 877 0 848 29
Slaughter 555,000 576,000 21,000 613,723 58,723
FC Index 293.71 288.07 5.64 247.18 46.53

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM $212.00 $184.00
KS $212.45 $184.01
NE $217.68 $186.63
IA/MN $217.19 $186.41

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 4/22/2025
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 120,460 13,937 -161,590 7,617 353,585 3,501
Feeder Cattle 28,061 2,146 -11,548 2,383 69,040 717
Lean Hogs 58,457 18,235 -114,509 13,734 271,324 1,701
Corn 112,805 11,768 -358,146 31,592 1,587,446 34,144
Soybeans 31,067 4,898 -146,694 1,554 769,930 24,512

Live Cattle Markets

June Live Cattle traded to a new contract high and traded through the 210.000 level Tuesday. Resistance will be at the contract high of 210.975. Support is at the 207.000 area and 203.400.

Feeder Cattle Markets

August Feeder Cattle posted new contract highs Tuesday. Resistance is at that high of 297.800 and the psychological level of 300.000. Support under the market is at the 291.000 area and the 20-day MA of 288.275.

Lean Hogs Markets

June hogs posted a new high for the move Monday before finishing the day lower. Support is near Monday and Tuesday’s low which lines up with the 100-day MA at 99.450. Resistance is Tuesday’s high of 101.975.

Corn Markets

July Corn could not hold support and finished sharply lower Tuesday. Support lines have now turned into resistance. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 481 and the 100-day MA of 479. Support is at the 200-day MA of 460 1/2.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

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Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern US and Central Plains.

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