5/16/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: After posting new contract highs across the entire complex on Wednesday morning, and the June contract posting an all-time high futures price, Live Cattle turned sharply lower and erased 9.000/cwt in two days. There is no glaring news that led to the collapse but felt much more like money flow and fund liquidation. The lack of fresh news to the market may have also contributed. After the USDA announced over the weekend that it would be closing the the Mexican border for cattle import, the market was asking “How much more good news is out there?” and wondering if that news could drive the market even higher. The cash market failed to trade in the same fashion as the futures, and will be called steady to even a buck higher. The bulk of the trade in the North took place at 227-229 and the South traded at 218-220. Boxed beef was higher again this week. Choice will finish the week nearly $6.50 higher, while select is up over $10.50. Kill cuts have played a large part in the higher meat trade but demand continues to out perform most expectations. Slaughter numbers will continue to be light for the next few weeks with the Memorial Day holiday. Live Cattle finished this week down 2.450 after finding new highs earlier in the week and then trading lower than last week’s lows. Technically, not a great picture but there was slight recovery today to finish off the lows for the week.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle also reversed directions in the middle of the week but just like Live Cattle, the cash has not followed suit. Feeders in sale barns have cheapened up slightly but that has not filtered into the CME feeder cattle index in a big way yet. The index for yesterday’s sales was quoted at 300.79 which was down 1.38. With fat cattle returning huge margins to the feedlots, it sure feels like there is a little bit of extra money in the bids for feeders to fill the pens back up. Going forward, all eyes will be on the Mexican border and what the month by month updates are on reopening. It is worth noting that corn seasonally works higher over the next 45 days and with the lack of buying in that market, the current fund position and summer weather, corn is ripe for a rally which could keep a little bit of a top on the feeder cattle markets.

Lean Hogs: The higher cutout market sparked Lean Hog futures to trade higher to finish the week. Lighter kills and continued good demand are both supporting the pork cutout and in turn, helping the cash markets. Exports last week were again good for pork but China was absent from any purchases. Technically, hogs are up against some resistance levels that are keeping most contracts from trading a whole lot higher. Iowa/Southern Minnesota weights continue to drop and are playing into lighter weekly production as well. Domestic demand for pork has been strong and actually increasing in recent weeks. With better demand and the outlook of less supply in the fall, the hog market feels very supported at these levels.

Corn: The corn market continues its poor performance and cannot find any news to entice buyers into the complex. As of right now, the weather is not threatening to the corn crop, but with the current carryout and demand picture the USDA has painted, any hiccup in production will make the balance sheets very tight. Soybean oil saw big losses this week after the less than positive news regarding biofuel blending, which sent the soybean market 30 cents lower on Thursday. Between the lower soybean market and the wheat market that cannot seem to find traction, corn has no alliance to work higher. Corn exports for the week ending May 8th were again impressive and are now on pace to beat this week’s revised higher export goal by 100 million bushels.

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn July 443.50 5.00
CHI Wheat July 525.00 7.75
KC Wheat July 516.50 11.75
MN Wheat July 573.25 6.75
Soybeans July 1050.00 1.25
Soy Oil July 48.93 0.39
Soy Meal July 291.90 4.50
Live Cattle June 212.225 1.050
Feeder Cattle August 297.600 1.775
Lean Hogs June 100.325 0.375
Crude Oil June 62.53 0.91
Ch Cutout 353.08 3.18
Sel Cutout 343.04 3.86
Feeder Index 300.79 1.38
Pork Cutout 99.72 2.58
Dollar Index 101.084 0.2050
DOW 42,661 339
National Corn Basis -26.59 0.58
National Bean Basis -51.41 0.94

Dates to Remember

May 22- May Feeder Cattle Expiration

May 23- Cattle on Feed

May 23- Cold Storage

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 100.325 90.375 9.950 98.375 1.950
National Cash 94.79 94.02 0.77 89.33 5.46
Index 91.02 90.07 0.95 92.29 1.27
Cutout 99.72 94.50 5.22 100.27 0.55
IA/SMN Cash 95.04 94.05 0.99 89.56 5.48
IA/SMN Weights 289.60 290.50 0.90 287.90 1.70
Slaughter 2,409,000 2,437,000 28,000 2,412,357 3,357

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 227-229 226.99 Steady to 1 higher 189.78 38.22
South Cash 219-220 218.97 Steady to 1 higher 185.88 33.62
North Steer Basis 16.00 14.00 2.00 9.78 6.22
Choice Boxes 353.08 346.53 6.55 310.15 42.93
Select Boxes 343.04 332.52 10.52 296.51 46.53
Spread 10.04 14.01 3.97 13.64 3.60
Carcass Weights 871 877 6 852 19
Slaughter 566,000 559,000 7,000 596,918 30,918
FC Index 300.79 296.14 4.65 242.33 58.46

Cash Cattle Markets

TX/OK/NM 219-220 $218.88 $186.00
KS 219-220 $218.97 $185.88
NE 227-229 $226.99 $189.78
IA/MN 227-229 $226.64 $189.90

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 5/13/2025
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 135,594 2,256 -174,250 3,095 386,128 2,048
Feeder Cattle 32,215 2,773 -13,344 1,864 78,198 382
Lean Hogs 81,086 10,464 -131,189 10,946 299,758 6,551
Corn 84,976 98,869 -180,174 93,218 1,604,326 6,431
Soybeans 38,407 16,537 -169,932 23,610 836,083 1,541

Live Cattle Markets

June Live Cattle posted a new contract and all-time high in the middle of the week before trading sharply lower. Resistance will be at 213.950 and then the contract high of 218.625. Support is at the 20-day MA of 211.125 and this week’s low of 210.625.

Feeder Cattle Markets

August Feeder cattle settled back below the 300.000 mark this week. Resistance will be at 300.000 and then 301.975. Support is at 295.100 and then 292.600.

Lean Hogs Markets

June Lean Hogs traded near resistance again today before finishing well off their highs. Resistance remains at 101.975. Support is at the 20-day MA of 99.100 and then 97.475.

Corn Markets

July Corn couldn’t finish the week higher after two days of higher trade. Support is at this week’s low of 436 1/2. Resistance is 458 3/4.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

Let's Talk

Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern US and Central Plains.

Nebraska Location

4809 S 114th St
Omaha, NE 68137

Iowa Location

4280 Sergeant Rd, Ste 240
Sioux City, IA 51106

General Contact

PO Box 45978
Omaha, NE 68145

Business Hours

Monday – Friday

8:00 A.M. – 4:00 P.M.