Live Cattle: Live cattle futures posted new contract highs across the entire complex today following another record week of cash cattle trade. Cash trade in the South was mostly at $218 this week and $220-224 in the North, both roughly $6 higher than a week ago. Slaughter this week was 559,000 head, 4,000 higher than a week ago but more than 62,000 less than last year. The smaller slaughter has helped support the boxed beef market throughout the week. Choice moved as high as 347 this week before cooling off by week’s end. Demand continues to feel strong, but at these levels there has to be some sort of demand destruction at the meat counter. Average carcass weights were up 1 pound this week and are now 29 pounds higher than a year ago. Carcass weights are no longer a gauge of whether the industry is current or not, as packers are inviting higher weights to help fill the boxes. Open interest within the live cattle complex is back on the rise as the managed money is willing to own Live Cattle futures and add to those longs, defending their positions.
Feeder Cattle: A new week and another new all-time high CME feeder cattle index. After Thursday’s sales, the current index is at 296.38. Nearby feeder cattle futures posted new contract highs today and the deferred contracts came close to setting new highs. Being this close to the $300.000 mark, it would make sense that the market at least trades up to that level next week. Nearby corn futures continue to struggle, which is also helping to support the feeder cattle complex. Open interest in the feeder complex has not increased as seen in the live cattle complex, but it did not escape during the lower move at the beginning of April either. The funds are still within arms reach of a record position and have no reason to trade out of that position as fundamentals remain strong.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures found technical support and resistance this week, and most of this week’s trade likely had more to do with those technical areas instead of the fundamentals. Last week was a poor week for exports but this week those numbers moved back into a more normal range. China had a small cancellation again this week after last week’s larger cancellation negated almost all of the weekly exports. 57% of this week’s sales are destined for Mexico. YTD sales are 12% behind a year ago which begs the question of whether the USDA will lower export demand in coming WASDE reports.
Corn: Corn futures failed to hold technical support at the beginning of the week and are now struggling to get back above those levels that have become resistance. There is not a lot of news surrounding the grain markets right now as traders keep an eye on planting progress and the summer weather models. It was a good week for flash sales in the export market and those sales continue to support total exports. The wheat market has traded 20 cents off of its lows which is helping corn trade sideways, but is not enough to lift futures higher at this time. March ethanol data was out this week and saw an increase in ethanol production compared to February but was much lower than a year ago.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
July
469.00
3.25
CHI Wheat
July
543.00
12.00
KC Wheat
July
541.25
13.75
MN Wheat
July
611.00
15.50
Soybeans
July
1058.00
7.75
Soy Oil
July
49.43
0.27
Soy Meal
July
296.90
2.60
Live Cattle
June
211.100
1.450
Feeder Cattle
May
294.950
1.725
Lean Hogs
June
99.350
1.175
Crude Oil
June
58.31
0.93
Ch Cutout
342.94
0.23
Sel Cutout
325.64
1.36
Feeder Index
296.38
0.28
Pork Cutout
96.46
0.15
Dollar Index
100.004
0.2440
DOW
41,325
572
National Corn Basis
-22.24
1.25
National Bean Basis
-44.77
4.03
Dates to Remember
May 5- Crop Progress
May 7- Fed Reserve Meeting
May 12- WASDE
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
92.950
92.800
0.150
93.075
0.125
National Cash
92.39
91.31
1.08
92.02
0.37
Index
89.57
85.75
3.82
90.96
1.39
Cutout
96.46
95.86
0.60
97.88
1.42
IA/SMN Cash
92.93
92.02
0.91
93.53
0.60
IA/SMN Weights
291.60
291.30
0.30
287.10
4.50
Slaughter
2,486,000
2,430,000
56,000
2,402,816
83,184
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
220-223
217.68
4-6 Higher
186.63
34.87
South Cash
216-218
212.45
4-6 Higher
186.41
30.59
North Steer Basis
6.00
4.00
2.00
1.97
4.03
Choice Boxes
342.94
335.16
7.78
292.90
50.04
Select Boxes
325.64
319.39
6.25
287.98
37.66
Spread
17.30
15.77
1.53
4.92
12.38
Carcass Weights
878
877
1
849
29
Slaughter
559,000
555,000
4,000
621,527
62,527
FC Index
296.38
289.88
6.50
243.37
53.01
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
216-218
$212.00
$184.00
KS
216-218
$212.45
$184.01
NE
220-223
$217.68
$186.63
IA/MN
220-223
$217.19
$186.41
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 4/29/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
128,840
8,380
-169,771
8,181
363,718
5,453
Feeder Cattle
27,901
160
-11,216
332
68,808
62
Lean Hogs
67,643
9,186
-119,409
4,900
265,187
3,201
Corn
71,329
41,476
-339,720
18,426
1,538,727
6,510
Soybeans
38,202
7,135
-156,849
10,152
755,701
3,770
Live Cattle Markets
June Live Cattle posted another new contract high on Friday and took out resistance at the 211.000 area. Resistance will now be at the contract high of 211.925 and where April expired at the 216.000 area. Support under the market is at 208.000 and 206.275.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder Cattle posted a new contract high of 297.975 this morning. That will be resistance before the 300.000 area. Support under the market is at 292.600 and then the 20-day MA of 288.800.
Lean Hogs Markets
June Lean Hogs ran into support and resistance this week and settled in the middle of the range. Resistance remains at 101.975, while support is at 97.275.
Corn Markets
Corn failed to hold on support lines this week and those lines are now resistance. Resistance is at the 100-day MA of 480 and the 20-day MA of 481 3/4. Support is at today’s low of 468 1/4 and the 200-day MA of 461.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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5/2/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live cattle futures posted new contract highs across the entire complex today following another record week of cash cattle trade. Cash trade in the South was mostly at $218 this week and $220-224 in the North, both roughly $6 higher than a week ago. Slaughter this week was 559,000 head, 4,000 higher than a week ago but more than 62,000 less than last year. The smaller slaughter has helped support the boxed beef market throughout the week. Choice moved as high as 347 this week before cooling off by week’s end. Demand continues to feel strong, but at these levels there has to be some sort of demand destruction at the meat counter. Average carcass weights were up 1 pound this week and are now 29 pounds higher than a year ago. Carcass weights are no longer a gauge of whether the industry is current or not, as packers are inviting higher weights to help fill the boxes. Open interest within the live cattle complex is back on the rise as the managed money is willing to own Live Cattle futures and add to those longs, defending their positions.
Feeder Cattle: A new week and another new all-time high CME feeder cattle index. After Thursday’s sales, the current index is at 296.38. Nearby feeder cattle futures posted new contract highs today and the deferred contracts came close to setting new highs. Being this close to the $300.000 mark, it would make sense that the market at least trades up to that level next week. Nearby corn futures continue to struggle, which is also helping to support the feeder cattle complex. Open interest in the feeder complex has not increased as seen in the live cattle complex, but it did not escape during the lower move at the beginning of April either. The funds are still within arms reach of a record position and have no reason to trade out of that position as fundamentals remain strong.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures found technical support and resistance this week, and most of this week’s trade likely had more to do with those technical areas instead of the fundamentals. Last week was a poor week for exports but this week those numbers moved back into a more normal range. China had a small cancellation again this week after last week’s larger cancellation negated almost all of the weekly exports. 57% of this week’s sales are destined for Mexico. YTD sales are 12% behind a year ago which begs the question of whether the USDA will lower export demand in coming WASDE reports.
Corn: Corn futures failed to hold technical support at the beginning of the week and are now struggling to get back above those levels that have become resistance. There is not a lot of news surrounding the grain markets right now as traders keep an eye on planting progress and the summer weather models. It was a good week for flash sales in the export market and those sales continue to support total exports. The wheat market has traded 20 cents off of its lows which is helping corn trade sideways, but is not enough to lift futures higher at this time. March ethanol data was out this week and saw an increase in ethanol production compared to February but was much lower than a year ago.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
May 5- Crop Progress
May 7- Fed Reserve Meeting
May 12- WASDE
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 4/29/2025
Live Cattle Markets
June Live Cattle posted another new contract high on Friday and took out resistance at the 211.000 area. Resistance will now be at the contract high of 211.925 and where April expired at the 216.000 area. Support under the market is at 208.000 and 206.275.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder Cattle posted a new contract high of 297.975 this morning. That will be resistance before the 300.000 area. Support under the market is at 292.600 and then the 20-day MA of 288.800.
Lean Hogs Markets
June Lean Hogs ran into support and resistance this week and settled in the middle of the range. Resistance remains at 101.975, while support is at 97.275.
Corn Markets
Corn failed to hold on support lines this week and those lines are now resistance. Resistance is at the 100-day MA of 480 and the 20-day MA of 481 3/4. Support is at today’s low of 468 1/4 and the 200-day MA of 461.