5/23/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Higher cash trade and higher boxed beef helped Live Cattle futures trade higher the final three days of the week. Cash trade in the North took place on Wednesday at 230 while the South is still holding out for more money. Currently, all the packers in the South are bidding 220 and the feedlots are holding strong, asking for 224. Boxed beef was higher again this morning with choice up $.82 to $361.79 and select up $2.10 to $351.05, both are now up over $8 for the week. Carcass weights rose this week after last week’s sharply lower move. Average carcass weights are now at 873 which is up 2 pounds from the previous week and 19 pounds heavier than a year ago. The Cattle on Feed Report that was released this afternoon showed cattle on feed down 1.6% compared to a year ago, placements for April down 2.6% and marketings down 2.5%. Everything came in right on the pre-report estimates and should not have much effect on either side of the market Tuesday morning.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures have traded sharply higher to finish the week and traded back above the 300.000 level each of the last two days, and the August contract finished above that level today. Tight supplies of available feeder cattle remains the story and with the closure of the Mexican border, supplies are tighter than ever. The CME feeder cattle index has drifted lower this week following the futures market that is off of its highs from last week. Cattle placed in Texas and Kansas were down 1.4% during the month of April compared to 2024. This would have been while the Mexican border was open, although not at full capacity, but still shows that there were significant cattle flowing across the border compared to prior months. The USDA will revisit the current screwworm situation on a monthly basis and update restrictions accordingly. As of May 20, the funds were long 33,972 contracts. Their all-time record long position is 34,132.

Lean Hogs: Nearby Lean Hog futures finished lower every day this week while the deferred contracts have traded sideways and actually posted new contract highs. The pork cutout has again become stagnant after its move higher to begin the month. Export sales data that was released this week showed improved sales of pork compared to previous weeks and was a seven week high, with China again on the list. This feels like a small victory as China has been absent and actually posted cancelations after the tariff news a few months ago. The feeling is China will remain in the market over the course of the next 90 days with the reduced tariff rate. Today’s Cold Storage Report showed total pork supplies down 8.7% compared to a year ago with bellies over 22% less.

Corn: Corn futures traded through some technical resistance yesterday, but could not finish the day higher on Friday. The managed money were sellers of 18,234 contracts for the week ending May 20 bringing their net short position to 103,210 contracts. Export sales this week were good again, and keep the U.S. well above the pace needed to meet the USDA export goal. Good moisture is expected across most of the corn belt over the weekend and today’s action felt like profit-taking heading into a long weekend with no weather threats currently. Wheat has been helpful to corn trading higher this week as the U.S. is very competitive in the world wheat market. With the funds short, the corn market and the current weather models looking good for corn production, there is going to need to be a weather scare or a surprise increase in demand to see a big rally in the corn market currently.