5/27/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Rumors of screwworm entering into the state of Missouri led to a free fall within the cattle complex this morning. A radio station released an article that there had been screwworm detected in Missouri, citing the USDA and a financial package to the state to fight the spread. That article was quickly removed but the futures damage had already been done. The USDA confirmed after 2pm today that the reports of screwworm in the U.S. were indeed false. The Live Cattle complex traded as much as $4 lower at one point this morning before finishing $1 lower on the day. This is a reminder of how susceptible the cattle complex is to news at these all-time high levels and the volatility that can come with it. Cash trade last week was higher across all regions, mainly 230 in the North which traded a fair amount of cattle, and 221 in the South but on very limited numbers. Tight supplies of ready fat cattle remain as packers are beginning to have more inventory around them. Boxed beef started the week mixed as choice was down $1.36 and select was up $0.15 in this morning’s report.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures were hit the hardest surrounding the screwworm rumors. Futures traded nearly $7.500 lower at one time this morning and looked to be going down to the $8.250 limit lower before validity of the news faded. The CME Feeder Cattle index continues to fade lower, quoted at $296.09 after Friday’s sales. This is $6.32 off its highs of $302.41 on May 14. All future months finished below the 300.000 level again today and right at, or just below the 20-day moving average. Technically not a great look for the Feeder Cattle complex and definitely does not give traders a lot of optimism that the Feeder Cattle can survive above the 300.000 level. After all, the cash fundamentals were what led Feeder Cattle to this level, and a stagnant to lower cash market has removed that optimism and buying within the complex.

Lean Hogs: The Lean Hog complex started the day lower before trading and finishing higher. The pork cutout moved higher again on Friday and is now at new highs after falling stagnant for the prior five days. The Cold Storage Report on Friday showed pork stocks down 9% compared to a year ago, but the monthly build in stocks was much larger than normal. There may be less in storage than a year ago, but the replenishment of those supplies is climbing quicker than normal. Carcass weights last week saw a steep decline, bringing the industry back to the same as a year ago. Carcass weights had been running larger than a year ago due to better economics at the producer level.

Corn: Corn futures fought head winds all day as the wheat complex was sharply lower and crude oil traded slightly lower. No startling news or changes in weather models during the long weekend led to the managed money adding to their short position. President Trump agreed to leave tariffs on the EU the same through the beginning of July. At the end of the day, the EU is not a huge purchaser of U.S. commodities, but a customer nonetheless. Overall within the grain complex, there is good weather for most of the corn belt that has given the crop a good start, there are no current weather threats that will hamper production and there is steady demand that is keeping our carryout in check. A hiccup or change to any of these would give the market some news to trade outside of the current ranges and force the funds to make a move one way or the other.

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn July 459.50 0.00
CHI Wheat July 528.50 14.00
KC Wheat July 524.50 14.25
MN Wheat July 596.25 10.25
Soybeans July 1062.50 2.25
Soy Oil July 49.57 0.22
Soy Meal July 296.30 0.10
Live Cattle June 215.125 0.675
Feeder Cattle August 298.150 2.225
Lean Hogs June 99.100 0.800
Crude Oil July 60.94 0.59
Ch Cutout 360.19 1.36
Sel Cutout 351.47 0.15
Feeder Index 296.09 0.63
Pork Cutout 101.46 1.19
Dollar Index 99.541 0.6110
DOW 42,290 686
National Corn Basis -25.03 0.17
National Bean Basis -49.90 0.42

Dates to Remember

June 6- June Live Cattle Option Expiration

June 12- WASDE Report

June 13- June Lean Hog Expiration

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 99.100 100.025 0.925 93.800 5.300
National Cash 94.86 92.51 2.35 87.83 7.03
Index 92.94 91.46 1.48 90.79 2.15
Cutout 101.46 101.09 0.37 103.40 1.94
IA/SMN Cash 96.45 95.04 1.41 88.45 8.00
IA/SMN Weights 287.90 290.50 1.70 287.90 0.00
Slaughter 2,362,000 2,400,000 38,000 2,371,081 9,081

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 230 190.52
South Cash 221 185.95
North Steer Basis 16.00 8.28
Choice Boxes 360.19 360.44 0.25 312.12 48.07
Select Boxes 351.47 345.12 6.35 303.43 48.04
Spread 8.72 15.32 6.60 8.69 0.03
Carcass Weights 873 871 2 854 19
Slaughter 570,000 566,000 4,000 602,136 32,136
FC Index 296.09 297.33 1.24 248.84 47.25

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM $221.00 $185.86
KS $221.00 $185.95
NE $230.00 $190.52
IA/MN $230.00 $189.94

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 5/20/2025
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 132,564 3,030 -166,673 7,577 398,324 1,484
Feeder Cattle 33,972 1,757 -14,835 711 77,551 778
Lean Hogs 91,744 10,658 -140,179 8,990 313,306 332
Corn -103,210 18,234 -172,292 7,882 1,651,763 8,064
Soybeans 12,654 25,753 -154,236 15,696 852,242 287

Live Cattle Markets

August Live Cattle posted a good recovery today. Resistance is at 211.175 and 212.200. Support is at the 20-day MA of 208.375 and then 205.325.

Feeder Cattle Markets

August Feeder Cattle took out Friday’s highs before trading sharply lower. The 20-day MA of 298.950 will be a pivot point for the next few days with support at 295.100 and then 293.050. Resistance is at 301.325 and 301.975.

Lean Hogs Markets

July Lean Hogs traded below the 20-day MA today before finishing above it. Support is at the 20-day MA of 101.475 and then 100.750 which has been the low both of the last two trading sessions. Resistance is at 103.975 and then 105.175.

Corn Markets

July Corn continues to hold a decent technical picture. Support is at the 20-day MA of 456, which was also today’s low. Resistance will be at 464 3/4 and then the 470 area.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

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