Live Cattle: New contract highs were seen across the entire complex today before a quick selloff late in the day. Big increases in open interest have been the theme within the Live Cattle complex over the past few weeks and the last two days especially. Friday’s trade resulted in a nearly 8,400 contract increase and Monday saw a 7,500 rise. All of the price action and the relentless rise in prices that are taking place point directly to fund buying. As of last Tuesday, the managed money held a net long position of 129,000 contracts, which has increased from 106,000 a few short weeks ago. Their all-time record long was this March at 157,000 contracts. Choice boxed beef has lost its bullish tone and is now stuck in a sideways trend. Over the last week, choice is down over $2, but select has found support and is up nearly $9 over that same period. The choice/select spread is now at $10.59 after spending a lot of time over $20. There has been a little bit of cash trade in the South already this week, 218 from a major early on Monday and 220 from a northern regional on Tuesday.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures posted a new contract and all-time high today but could not break the psychological resistance level of 300.000. The CME feeder cattle index was quoted 2.98 lower on Friday’s sales and has taken a bit of the overly bullish sentiment out of the market for now. The index was up .38 to 293.78 for Monday’s sales. Cash feeders continue to bring record prices all across the country. Uncertainty surrounding the Mexican border and current screwworm situation give the managed money plenty of reason to continue to buy the feeder cattle complex and keep prices elevated.
Lean Hogs: June Lean Hogs traded below some key support areas today, posting a low of 97.05, before settling at 97.575. The 20-day MA of 97.33 will continue to offer technical support until a settlement below that line occurs. The deferred months posted small gains today and yesterday, and are near the contract highs set before the talks of tariffs took over the market. Cash ISO wean and feeder pig prices remaining $3 to $4 higher than a year ago indicating short supply of available feeder pigs. Tighter supplies along with disease issues within some operations are helping support the deferred months. The pork cutout remains stagnant as export demand remains a big question mark. Having no fresh positive trade news for pork exports leaves the possibility of large supplies for our domestic market.
Corn: Corn futures have lost 45 cents over the past month as there is no current threat to U.S. production for 2025. Planting progress now stands at 40% planted, well above a year ago and slightly higher than the 5-year average. There looks to be a widespread window over the next two weeks for the corn crop to get planted and focus will shift to weather models and precipitation forecasts. Corn futures are now closing in on our most recent lows set at the end of March. One positive thing that could come from all the fund liquidation that we are currently seeing is their position will be rather small and give them buying power in the event of adverse weather or an increase in U.S. corn demand. Crude Oil has not been the friend of the corn market either, WTI traded higher on Tuesday after a good recovery from the lows on Monday that pressed within $2 of the lows set at the beginning of April.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
July
455.50
1.25
CHI Wheat
July
536.00
4.75
KC Wheat
July
538.00
5.25
MN Wheat
July
610.50
1.00
Soybeans
July
1041.25
4.25
Soy Oil
July
48.35
0.38
Soy Meal
July
293.00
2.50
Live Cattle
June
213.675
0.025
Feeder Cattle
May
295.700
0.375
Lean Hogs
June
97.575
1.425
Crude Oil
June
59.04
1.91
Ch Cutout
344.17
0.60
Sel Cutout
333.58
5.51
Feeder Index
293.78
0.38
Pork Cutout
96.66
1.72
Dollar Index
99.278
0.5530
DOW
40,909
309
National Corn Basis
-28.81
0.26
National Bean Basis
-53.05
0.48
Dates to Remember
May 7- Fed Reserve Meeting
May 12- WASDE
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
91.550
92.550
1.000
92.175
0.625
National Cash
89.96
90.14
0.18
92.41
2.45
Index
89.87
88.18
1.69
91.03
1.16
Cutout
96.66
97.62
0.96
99.50
2.84
IA/SMN Cash
92.93
90.99
1.94
93.83
0.90
IA/SMN Weights
291.60
291.30
0.30
287.10
4.50
Slaughter
2,486,000
2,430,000
56,000
2,402,816
83,184
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
222.41
186.48
South Cash
217.00
184.12
North Steer Basis
6.00
9.78
Choice Boxes
344.17
346.19
2.02
298.76
45.41
Select Boxes
333.58
324.81
8.77
289.75
43.83
Spread
10.59
21.39
10.80
9.01
1.58
Carcass Weights
878
877
1
849
29
Slaughter
559,000
555,000
4,000
621,527
62,527
FC Index
293.78
293.71
0.07
240.05
53.73
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$217.34
$183.97
KS
$217.00
$184.12
NE
$222.41
$186.48
IA/MN
$222.01
$186.74
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 4/29/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
128,840
8,380
-169,771
8,181
378,727
7,481
Feeder Cattle
27,901
160
-11,216
332
70,466
761
Lean Hogs
67,643
9,186
-119,409
4,900
269,661
1,228
Corn
71,329
41,476
-339,720
18,426
1,547,682
12,287
Soybeans
38,202
7,135
-156,849
10,152
764,916
1,015
Live Cattle Markets
June Live cattle posted another contract high today before settling nearly unchanged. Resistance will be at the contract high of 214.325 and then where the April contract expired around the 216.000 area. Support is at 208.000.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeders could not get through the psychological resistance of 300.000 this morning but recovered late in the day to finish higher. Resistance is at 299.900 and then 300.000. Support under the market is at 294.650 and then 292.600.
Lean Hogs Markets
June Lean Hogs held many support areas today making tomorrow a very important technical day. Support is at the 20-day MA of 97.325, followed by 97.275 and then the 200-day MA of 96.925. Resistance above the market remains at 101.975.
Corn Markets
July Corn made a new low for the move today before finishing higher on the day. Support is at today’s low of 452 1/2 and then 450 1/2. Resistance begins at 475.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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5/6/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: New contract highs were seen across the entire complex today before a quick selloff late in the day. Big increases in open interest have been the theme within the Live Cattle complex over the past few weeks and the last two days especially. Friday’s trade resulted in a nearly 8,400 contract increase and Monday saw a 7,500 rise. All of the price action and the relentless rise in prices that are taking place point directly to fund buying. As of last Tuesday, the managed money held a net long position of 129,000 contracts, which has increased from 106,000 a few short weeks ago. Their all-time record long was this March at 157,000 contracts. Choice boxed beef has lost its bullish tone and is now stuck in a sideways trend. Over the last week, choice is down over $2, but select has found support and is up nearly $9 over that same period. The choice/select spread is now at $10.59 after spending a lot of time over $20. There has been a little bit of cash trade in the South already this week, 218 from a major early on Monday and 220 from a northern regional on Tuesday.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures posted a new contract and all-time high today but could not break the psychological resistance level of 300.000. The CME feeder cattle index was quoted 2.98 lower on Friday’s sales and has taken a bit of the overly bullish sentiment out of the market for now. The index was up .38 to 293.78 for Monday’s sales. Cash feeders continue to bring record prices all across the country. Uncertainty surrounding the Mexican border and current screwworm situation give the managed money plenty of reason to continue to buy the feeder cattle complex and keep prices elevated.
Lean Hogs: June Lean Hogs traded below some key support areas today, posting a low of 97.05, before settling at 97.575. The 20-day MA of 97.33 will continue to offer technical support until a settlement below that line occurs. The deferred months posted small gains today and yesterday, and are near the contract highs set before the talks of tariffs took over the market. Cash ISO wean and feeder pig prices remaining $3 to $4 higher than a year ago indicating short supply of available feeder pigs. Tighter supplies along with disease issues within some operations are helping support the deferred months. The pork cutout remains stagnant as export demand remains a big question mark. Having no fresh positive trade news for pork exports leaves the possibility of large supplies for our domestic market.
Corn: Corn futures have lost 45 cents over the past month as there is no current threat to U.S. production for 2025. Planting progress now stands at 40% planted, well above a year ago and slightly higher than the 5-year average. There looks to be a widespread window over the next two weeks for the corn crop to get planted and focus will shift to weather models and precipitation forecasts. Corn futures are now closing in on our most recent lows set at the end of March. One positive thing that could come from all the fund liquidation that we are currently seeing is their position will be rather small and give them buying power in the event of adverse weather or an increase in U.S. corn demand. Crude Oil has not been the friend of the corn market either, WTI traded higher on Tuesday after a good recovery from the lows on Monday that pressed within $2 of the lows set at the beginning of April.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
May 7- Fed Reserve Meeting
May 12- WASDE
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 4/29/2025
Live Cattle Markets
June Live cattle posted another contract high today before settling nearly unchanged. Resistance will be at the contract high of 214.325 and then where the April contract expired around the 216.000 area. Support is at 208.000.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeders could not get through the psychological resistance of 300.000 this morning but recovered late in the day to finish higher. Resistance is at 299.900 and then 300.000. Support under the market is at 294.650 and then 292.600.
Lean Hogs Markets
June Lean Hogs held many support areas today making tomorrow a very important technical day. Support is at the 20-day MA of 97.325, followed by 97.275 and then the 200-day MA of 96.925. Resistance above the market remains at 101.975.
Corn Markets
July Corn made a new low for the move today before finishing higher on the day. Support is at today’s low of 452 1/2 and then 450 1/2. Resistance begins at 475.