Live Cattle: The Live Cattle complex saw another volatile Tuesday as all months traded across a $3 range. No news came into the market to cause the big swings throughout the day, but many are pointing at ICE raids in packing plants in Omaha, Nebraska as the culprit. Today’s estimated kill is at 119,000 hd which is not suggesting any kill reductions on the day. There are a few plants that have canceled cattle in the North for tomorrow due to worries of lack of labor. It has become a theme over the last three weeks that news headlines and rumors break during trading hours on Tuesday. While noteworthy, this is definitely not something to hang your hat on or trade in anticipation of. Open interest within the cattle complex has decreased drastically over the last three days. At the close of trade on Thursday, open interest within the Live Cattle complex was nearly 417,000 contracts and declined to just 392,000 contracts as of the close yesterday. With option expiration day being last Friday, many contracts were offset with options exercising and expiring. Cash trade has been quiet so far this week, but there were a few cattle traded at 238 in Texas on Monday. Most feedlots are not sure where to price cattle as the cash market has traded sharply higher each of the past five weeks. Import and export data for April was released last week and showed large amounts of beef imports into the U.S. Total imports throughout the month of April are up 28% for 2025 while exports are down 4%. Imports from Brazil were up nearly 17% from the month of March and became the biggest source of beef, while exports to China fell to a 5-year low.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures posted new contract highs across all months on Tuesday as cash Feeder Cattle continue to move to new record levels. The CME Feeder Cattle index is now at $314.05 through Monday’s sales, a new record and $12.57 higher than a week ago. Nearly hard to believe, but with futures markets that are at record highs, cheap feed, and limited amounts of available feeder cattle, prices continue to rise. The managed money is currently long 34,827 contracts which is an all-time record. There has been no news from the Mexican border. The Cattle on Feed report next Friday will give the industry an update of placements and cattle on feed numbers in the southern states. As of May 1, Texas had 6% less cattle in feedlots compared to a year ago. With the closure of the Mexican border, that number does not look to improve in the near future.
Lean Hogs: Another day with plenty of support was seen within the Lean Hog complex today. All months with the exception of the nearby June contract traded near their highs that were posted on Monday, and July traded to a new high. The futures continue to follow the strong cash markets and the higher cutout. June futures will expire this Friday and remain a $4.10 premium to the Lean Hog index. Open interest continues to increase as the funds continue to add to their long position. As of last Tuesday, the managed money was long 101,626 contracts. Still a good distance from the record length of 133,507, but with the continued buying being seen within the complex, there should be a sharp increase reported this Friday.
Corn: Corn futures traded to new lows for the calendar year before finding support and finishing the day higher. The grain markets as a whole tried to stabilize last week but began this week under heavy pressure. There are too many factors that are weighing on the market, keeping prices depressed. Limiting factors for the move higher include a large South American crop, no currently threatening U.S. weather, no positive news on renewable fuels and the worries regarding demand from China. The USDA Crop Progress Report that was released yesterday afternoon showed corn planting at 97% complete. Ohio has been a big question and center of debate as planting has been slow due to wet weather, but the state is now 90% complete with corn planting. Corn conditions were increased 2% compared to a week ago and confirms the market’s thoughts of a corn crop that is off to a good start, along with favorable forecasts in the extended models. Estimates for Thursday’s WASDE report show no big surprises coming from the USDA. A slight reduction in carryout is anticipated.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
July
438.75
5.25
CHI Wheat
July
534.50
7.50
KC Wheat
July
527.25
10.25
MN Wheat
July
613.25
9.25
Soybeans
July
1057.75
1.75
Soy Oil
July
47.79
0.41
Soy Meal
July
295.90
0.40
Live Cattle
June
227.075
0.075
Feeder Cattle
August
313.150
1.500
Lean Hogs
July
108.200
1.000
Crude Oil
July
64.73
0.56
Ch Cutout
371.16
3.91
Sel Cutout
359.82
0.89
Feeder Index
314.05
3.58
Pork Cutout
110.29
1.22
Dollar Index
99.019
0.0800
DOW
42,817
55
National Corn Basis
-22.68
0.31
National Bean Basis
-47.19
0.33
Dates to Remember
June 12- WASDE Report
June 13- June Lean Hog Expiration
June 20- Cattle on Feed Report
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
103.150
100.225
2.925
92.250
10.900
National Cash
103.22
95.40
7.82
88.58
14.64
Index
99.05
95.90
3.15
91.32
7.73
Cutout
110.29
106.75
3.54
100.43
9.86
IA/SMN Cash
104.33
96.45
7.88
88.58
15.75
IA/SMN Weights
288.30
288.00
0.30
290.40
2.10
Slaughter
2,363,000
2,143,000
220,000
2,415,772
52,772
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
241.82
195.90
South Cash
231.12
186.26
North Steer Basis
16.50
7.51
Choice Boxes
371.16
366.23
4.93
317.42
53.74
Select Boxes
359.82
357.54
2.28
301.04
58.78
Spread
11.34
8.69
2.65
16.38
5.04
Carcass Weights
872
871
1
851
21
Slaughter
582,000
477,000
105,000
609,797
27,797
FC Index
314.05
301.48
12.57
252.88
61.17
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$229.54
$185.79
KS
$231.12
$186.26
NE
$241.82
$195.90
IA/MN
$240.22
$194.03
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 6/3/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
131,805
512
-168,450
3,425
392,012
4,259
Feeder Cattle
34,827
1,569
-14,407
2,001
81,803
555
Lean Hogs
101,626
7,086
-156,906
14,839
365,442
3,064
Corn
-154,043
53,283
-102,452
47,609
1,635,875
4,090
Soybeans
8,601
28,096
-143,487
32,487
857,492
16,257
Live Cattle Markets
August Live Cattle finished lower for the first time in four days. Resistance above the market is at the contract high of 220.050. Support below the market is at 212.475 followed by the 20-day MA of 211.100.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder Cattle posted a new contract high today. Resistance will be at the high of 314.200. Support is at 304.375 and then the 20-day MA of 301.825.
Lean Hogs Markets
July Lean Hogs traded to a new contract high today. Resistance will be at that high of 108.425 and then the 110.000 area. Support is at the 20-day MA of 104.125 and then 103.925.
Corn Markets
July Corn traded to new lows for the move this morning, and the lowest since the middle of October before recovering and finishing higher. Support will be at that low of 429 1/4 and then 427 1/2. Resistance will be at 445.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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6/10/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: The Live Cattle complex saw another volatile Tuesday as all months traded across a $3 range. No news came into the market to cause the big swings throughout the day, but many are pointing at ICE raids in packing plants in Omaha, Nebraska as the culprit. Today’s estimated kill is at 119,000 hd which is not suggesting any kill reductions on the day. There are a few plants that have canceled cattle in the North for tomorrow due to worries of lack of labor. It has become a theme over the last three weeks that news headlines and rumors break during trading hours on Tuesday. While noteworthy, this is definitely not something to hang your hat on or trade in anticipation of. Open interest within the cattle complex has decreased drastically over the last three days. At the close of trade on Thursday, open interest within the Live Cattle complex was nearly 417,000 contracts and declined to just 392,000 contracts as of the close yesterday. With option expiration day being last Friday, many contracts were offset with options exercising and expiring. Cash trade has been quiet so far this week, but there were a few cattle traded at 238 in Texas on Monday. Most feedlots are not sure where to price cattle as the cash market has traded sharply higher each of the past five weeks. Import and export data for April was released last week and showed large amounts of beef imports into the U.S. Total imports throughout the month of April are up 28% for 2025 while exports are down 4%. Imports from Brazil were up nearly 17% from the month of March and became the biggest source of beef, while exports to China fell to a 5-year low.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures posted new contract highs across all months on Tuesday as cash Feeder Cattle continue to move to new record levels. The CME Feeder Cattle index is now at $314.05 through Monday’s sales, a new record and $12.57 higher than a week ago. Nearly hard to believe, but with futures markets that are at record highs, cheap feed, and limited amounts of available feeder cattle, prices continue to rise. The managed money is currently long 34,827 contracts which is an all-time record. There has been no news from the Mexican border. The Cattle on Feed report next Friday will give the industry an update of placements and cattle on feed numbers in the southern states. As of May 1, Texas had 6% less cattle in feedlots compared to a year ago. With the closure of the Mexican border, that number does not look to improve in the near future.
Lean Hogs: Another day with plenty of support was seen within the Lean Hog complex today. All months with the exception of the nearby June contract traded near their highs that were posted on Monday, and July traded to a new high. The futures continue to follow the strong cash markets and the higher cutout. June futures will expire this Friday and remain a $4.10 premium to the Lean Hog index. Open interest continues to increase as the funds continue to add to their long position. As of last Tuesday, the managed money was long 101,626 contracts. Still a good distance from the record length of 133,507, but with the continued buying being seen within the complex, there should be a sharp increase reported this Friday.
Corn: Corn futures traded to new lows for the calendar year before finding support and finishing the day higher. The grain markets as a whole tried to stabilize last week but began this week under heavy pressure. There are too many factors that are weighing on the market, keeping prices depressed. Limiting factors for the move higher include a large South American crop, no currently threatening U.S. weather, no positive news on renewable fuels and the worries regarding demand from China. The USDA Crop Progress Report that was released yesterday afternoon showed corn planting at 97% complete. Ohio has been a big question and center of debate as planting has been slow due to wet weather, but the state is now 90% complete with corn planting. Corn conditions were increased 2% compared to a week ago and confirms the market’s thoughts of a corn crop that is off to a good start, along with favorable forecasts in the extended models. Estimates for Thursday’s WASDE report show no big surprises coming from the USDA. A slight reduction in carryout is anticipated.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
June 12- WASDE Report
June 13- June Lean Hog Expiration
June 20- Cattle on Feed Report
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 6/3/2025
Live Cattle Markets
August Live Cattle finished lower for the first time in four days. Resistance above the market is at the contract high of 220.050. Support below the market is at 212.475 followed by the 20-day MA of 211.100.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder Cattle posted a new contract high today. Resistance will be at the high of 314.200. Support is at 304.375 and then the 20-day MA of 301.825.
Lean Hogs Markets
July Lean Hogs traded to a new contract high today. Resistance will be at that high of 108.425 and then the 110.000 area. Support is at the 20-day MA of 104.125 and then 103.925.
Corn Markets
July Corn traded to new lows for the move this morning, and the lowest since the middle of October before recovering and finishing higher. Support will be at that low of 429 1/4 and then 427 1/2. Resistance will be at 445.