Live Cattle: For the first time in nine weeks cash cattle did not trade higher. Cash trade this week will be called steady. 235 in the South was fully steady with the high end of their trade last week and $5 higher than the averages. The North traded mostly at 240 this week which is the same as the bulk of the trade a week ago but we did not see the outside bids of 242-243 this week. Uncertainty within the equity markets weighed on the futures this morning as Israel attacking Iran overnight caused global unrest and uncertainty. A steady cash market for the first time in over two months has also cooled off the futures market that had been posting new contract highs every week. Open interest continued to decline throughout the complex over the course of the week on what appears to be fund long liquidation.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures quickly erased $8/cwt over the course of three days as uncertainty has entered the market. The CME Feeder Cattle index has yet to back off as cash feeders remain high. The index typically lags the futures action by a few days as it takes some time for lower futures prices to create lower the bids in sale barns and then get factored into the index. The funds continue to hold a record long feeder position and this adds to the volatility as outside factors weigh on the market. There has not been much technical damage done to the Feeder Cattle charts to this point. The fast run up left little for support areas on the way down, and we have not reached those levels yet.
Lean Hogs: The pork cutout continues with its positive momentum with the morning cutout being up $2.93 at $117.43 a large climb from $97 only a month ago. With June expiring today and July now becoming the lead month, it had the largest gain today closing up $0.57 at $109.47, the rest of the deferred months held steady. The weekly export sales came in at only 10K tonnes sold, where Mexico was showing a net cancelation of 1K tonne. Thursday’s WASDE report revised exports downward by 110 million pounds, which now forecasts exports for 2025 to be -2.3% compared to last year.
Corn: With the news of overnight unrest in the Middle East, oil futures reacted positively to the news. However, corn did not see the positive bump to this news as July finished only up $0.06, unlike the bean nearby contract closing up $0.26. Yesterday’s WASDE report was as expected with no real surprises. They increased corn exports by 50 mbu and carried that over to a smaller new crop carryout of 1.75 bbu. This news wasn’t enough to cause any real market reaction.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
July
444.50
6.00
CHI Wheat
July
543.75
17.25
KC Wheat
July
540.75
18.00
MN Wheat
July
634.25
13.50
Soybeans
July
1069.75
27.50
Soy Oil
July
50.61
3.00
Soy Meal
July
291.90
-2.60
Live Cattle
June
225.100
-3.100
Feeder Cattle
August
306.425
-4.825
Lean Hogs
July
109.475
0.575
Crude Oil
July
73.12
5.06
Ch Cutout
377.88
1.16
Sel Cutout
363.5
0.43
Feeder Index
317.10
1.25
Pork Cutout
110.29
1.22
Dollar Index
98.205
0.2850
DOW
42,198
-769.83
National Corn Basis
-22.11
-0.52
National Bean Basis
-54.00
-3.04
Dates to Remember
June 13- June Lean Hog Expiration
June 20- Cattle on Feed Report
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
109.475
107.100
2.375
88.250
21.225
National Cash
104.95
101.85
3.10
86.87
18.08
Index
101.75
97.57
4.18
91.44
10.31
Cutout
114.50
108.12
6.38
97.02
17.48
IA/SMN Cash
105.81
102.55
3.45
87.71
18.29
IA/SMN Weights
287.20
288.30
1.10
289.00
1.80
Slaughter
2,367,000
2,339,000
28,000
2,333,209
33,791
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
240
241.82
Steady
195.90
44.10
South Cash
235
231.12
Steady
186.26
48.74
North Steer Basis
12.5
16.50
7.51
Choice Boxes
377.88
365.49
12.39
318.31
59.57
Select Boxes
365.50
356.71
8.79
299.25
66.25
Spread
14.38
8.78
19.06
Carcass Weights
870
872
2
851
19
Slaughter
556,000
580,000
-24,000
608,178
-52,178
FC Index
317.10
306.16
10.94
255.86
61.24
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
235
$229.54
$185.79
KS
235
$231.12
$186.26
NE
240
$241.82
$195.90
IA/MN
240
$240.22
$194.03
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 6/3/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
131,805
512
-168,450
3,425
383,761
3,218
Feeder Cattle
34,827
1,569
-14,407
2,001
86,112
478
Lean Hogs
101,626
7,086
-156,906
14,839
371,622
2,163
Corn
-154,043
53,283
-102,452
47,609
1,613,314
1,061
Soybeans
8,601
28,096
-143,487
32,487
841,937
7,987
Live Cattle Markets
August Live Cattle finished the week lower and right on support lines. Support is at the 20-day MA of 212.125. Resistance is at the contract high of 220.050.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder Cattle finished the week sharply lower but held most technical levels. Support is at 304.375 and then the 20-day MA of 303.050. Resistance is at the contract high of 314.200.
Lean Hogs Markets
July Lean Hogs posted another contract high and that is resistance at 109.625. Support is at the 20-day MA of 105.000.
Corn Markets
July Corn tested the 20-day MA this morning but could not trade through that level. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 446. Support is at this week’s low of 429 1/4.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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6/13/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: For the first time in nine weeks cash cattle did not trade higher. Cash trade this week will be called steady. 235 in the South was fully steady with the high end of their trade last week and $5 higher than the averages. The North traded mostly at 240 this week which is the same as the bulk of the trade a week ago but we did not see the outside bids of 242-243 this week. Uncertainty within the equity markets weighed on the futures this morning as Israel attacking Iran overnight caused global unrest and uncertainty. A steady cash market for the first time in over two months has also cooled off the futures market that had been posting new contract highs every week. Open interest continued to decline throughout the complex over the course of the week on what appears to be fund long liquidation.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures quickly erased $8/cwt over the course of three days as uncertainty has entered the market. The CME Feeder Cattle index has yet to back off as cash feeders remain high. The index typically lags the futures action by a few days as it takes some time for lower futures prices to create lower the bids in sale barns and then get factored into the index. The funds continue to hold a record long feeder position and this adds to the volatility as outside factors weigh on the market. There has not been much technical damage done to the Feeder Cattle charts to this point. The fast run up left little for support areas on the way down, and we have not reached those levels yet.
Lean Hogs: The pork cutout continues with its positive momentum with the morning cutout being up $2.93 at $117.43 a large climb from $97 only a month ago. With June expiring today and July now becoming the lead month, it had the largest gain today closing up $0.57 at $109.47, the rest of the deferred months held steady. The weekly export sales came in at only 10K tonnes sold, where Mexico was showing a net cancelation of 1K tonne. Thursday’s WASDE report revised exports downward by 110 million pounds, which now forecasts exports for 2025 to be -2.3% compared to last year.
Corn: With the news of overnight unrest in the Middle East, oil futures reacted positively to the news. However, corn did not see the positive bump to this news as July finished only up $0.06, unlike the bean nearby contract closing up $0.26. Yesterday’s WASDE report was as expected with no real surprises. They increased corn exports by 50 mbu and carried that over to a smaller new crop carryout of 1.75 bbu. This news wasn’t enough to cause any real market reaction.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
June 13- June Lean Hog Expiration
June 20- Cattle on Feed Report
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 6/3/2025
Live Cattle Markets
August Live Cattle finished the week lower and right on support lines. Support is at the 20-day MA of 212.125. Resistance is at the contract high of 220.050.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder Cattle finished the week sharply lower but held most technical levels. Support is at 304.375 and then the 20-day MA of 303.050. Resistance is at the contract high of 314.200.
Lean Hogs Markets
July Lean Hogs posted another contract high and that is resistance at 109.625. Support is at the 20-day MA of 105.000.
Corn Markets
July Corn tested the 20-day MA this morning but could not trade through that level. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 446. Support is at this week’s low of 429 1/4.