Live Cattle: Live Cattle finished the volatile week on a lower note after giving up big gains from this morning. The cash market traded lower this week, and was the first notable week lower in nearly two and a half months. The lower cash market was matched with a boxed beef market that has exploded higher throughout the week. Choice boxes are up $12.47 compared to last Friday and are currently at $390.35. Select was up $1.56 this morning to $376.15 and is $10.65 higher than a week ago. The better beef markets will certainty entice packers to crank up the chain speed in coming weeks as their margins improve. Cash cattle in the North traded anywhere from 235 to 238 and most of the trade took place in the middle of the week. Hedgers were faced with an exceptional basis as most hedges are currently against the August futures contract. Many cattle are being pulled ahead and being sold lighter than originally planned to capture that basis. Most packers are buying cattle with time as well, which is letting the feedlots set the cash price, enjoy the basis premiums and feed those cattle for nearly another month. The USDA released their monthly Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon. Cattle on feed were 98.8% of a year ago. Placements were down 7.8% and marketings were down 10.1% compared to last May. Cattle on feed in Texas are down 7% compared to a year ago as available feeder cattle have been, and continue to be, limited with the closure of the Mexican border.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures also erased big gains from early this morning finished the day near their lows. Fund activity seems to be the theme within the Feeder Cattle complex as extreme intraday volatility is seen almost everyday. Open interest remains steady even with the volatility that has been taking place. Today’s Cattle on Feed Report showed lighter placements in Texas compared to a year ago. Placements during the month of May in Texas were down 17% compared to 2024. The closure of the Mexican border continues to keep available Feeder Cattle at limited numbers, making it hard for those feed yards to find cattle to place. There were no other huge changes within the placement category other than Colorado being 29% less than a year ago.
Lean Hogs: The pork cutout has lost its daily higher moves like we have seen in past weeks, but has held steady throughout the week. At the beginning of June, the cutout was at $106.75 and this morning’s cutout was $121.44, resulting in a gain of $14.69 over a 20-day period. The national hog cash price has seen strong gains as well, jumping $7 just this week. Two years ago was the last time we had seen $113+ cash hogs. Cash hogs eventually rose to $130 that same summer. The 2-day Lean Hog index is at $107.59 which is a $5 discount to the July futures. July posted a new contract high of $113.025 today. The spike in cash can be contributed to the seasonal downward trends in weight due to the shortage of market ready hogs. The interesting fact about the lower weights is that we are seeing the packer-owned weights falling at a faster rate than the producer-owned hogs. Disease pressure in the large integrations is creating a hole in production numbers and is forcing some of those integrators to pull ahead hogs to help the shackles remain full.
Corn: December Corn futures started the day higher as heat enters the forecast for most of the corn belt, but could not hold those gains throughout the day. Up to this point, there have been very limited, if any, weather scares that threaten U.S. corn production. Most years the corn market tops around the 20th of June as the market has a glimpse of the coming weather into the beginning of July. The rally that is typically seen to start the summer has not taken place this year as the managed money continues to carry a very large short position, especially for the time of year. Exports were good again this week and Japan was the featured buyer. The U.S. is now over 150 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to meet the new export goal from the USDA. Weather forecasts will be front and center as we head into the Fourth of July holiday and will dictate much of the movement that will take place.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
July
428.75
4.75
CHI Wheat
July
567.75
6.50
KC Wheat
July
563.25
8.00
MN Wheat
July
638.75
7.50
Soybeans
July
1068.00
6.75
Soy Oil
July
54.47
0.30
Soy Meal
July
284.10
0.80
Live Cattle
June
223.025
1.275
Feeder Cattle
August
302.450
1.725
Lean Hogs
July
112.775
0.600
Crude Oil
August
74.08
0.58
Ch Cutout
390.35
3.44
Sel Cutout
376.15
1.56
Feeder Index
310.99
1.63
Pork Cutout
118.98
0.70
Dollar Index
98.767
0.1380
DOW
42,183
12
National Corn Basis
-21.58
0.03
National Bean Basis
-57.06
0.75
Dates to Remember
June 20- Cattle on Feed Report
June 26- Hogs and Pigs Report
June 30- Grain Stocks and Planted Acres
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
112.775
109.475
3.300
91.150
21.625
National Cash
113.12
104.95
8.17
87.21
25.91
Index
107.65
101.75
5.90
90.32
17.33
Cutout
118.98
114.50
4.48
97.85
21.13
IA/SMN Cash
114.09
105.81
8.28
87.71
26.38
IA/SMN Weights
286.50
287.20
0.70
287.40
0.90
Slaughter
2,365,000
2,375,000
10,000
2,412,212
47,212
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
235-237
241.30
3-5 Lower
197.06
39.44
South Cash
231
235.65
4-5 Lower
190.29
40.71
North Steer Basis
12.20
13.36
1.16
7.85
4.35
Choice Boxes
390.35
377.88
12.47
322.85
67.50
Select Boxes
376.15
365.50
10.65
302.86
73.29
Spread
14.20
14.38
0.18
19.99
5.79
Carcass Weights
870
872
2
851
19
Slaughter
554,000
558,000
4,000
615,577
61,577
FC Index
310.99
317.10
6.11
255.79
55.20
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
231
$234.95
$189.41
KS
231
$235.65
$190.29
NE
235-237
$241.30
$197.30
IA/MN
235-237
$239.63
$197.06
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 6/17/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
137,836
6,031
-176,849
8,399
381,616
702
Feeder Cattle
35,962
1,135
-15,205
789
86,661
227
Lean Hogs
118,218
16,592
-173,506
16,600
371,090
9,113
Corn
-164,020
9,977
-78,344
24,108
1,582,322
10,155
Soybeans
25,639
17,038
-160,854
17,367
852,239
6,070
Live Cattle Markets
August Live Cattle finished lower today and could not settle above the 20-day MA. The 20-day MA of 213.100 will be resistance followed by 215.550. Support is at 206.375.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder Cattle failed to hold the 20-day MA today. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 304.625 and then 310.900. Support is at 301.100.
Lean Hogs Markets
July Lean Hogs posted a new contract high today. Resistance will be at that high of 113.025. Support under the market is at 111.200 and then 109.525.
Corn Markets
December Corn stalled out at the 50-day MA this morning. The first resistance area is at the 50-day MA of 447 and then 450 1/2. Support is at 433 3/4.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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6/20/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle finished the volatile week on a lower note after giving up big gains from this morning. The cash market traded lower this week, and was the first notable week lower in nearly two and a half months. The lower cash market was matched with a boxed beef market that has exploded higher throughout the week. Choice boxes are up $12.47 compared to last Friday and are currently at $390.35. Select was up $1.56 this morning to $376.15 and is $10.65 higher than a week ago. The better beef markets will certainty entice packers to crank up the chain speed in coming weeks as their margins improve. Cash cattle in the North traded anywhere from 235 to 238 and most of the trade took place in the middle of the week. Hedgers were faced with an exceptional basis as most hedges are currently against the August futures contract. Many cattle are being pulled ahead and being sold lighter than originally planned to capture that basis. Most packers are buying cattle with time as well, which is letting the feedlots set the cash price, enjoy the basis premiums and feed those cattle for nearly another month. The USDA released their monthly Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon. Cattle on feed were 98.8% of a year ago. Placements were down 7.8% and marketings were down 10.1% compared to last May. Cattle on feed in Texas are down 7% compared to a year ago as available feeder cattle have been, and continue to be, limited with the closure of the Mexican border.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures also erased big gains from early this morning finished the day near their lows. Fund activity seems to be the theme within the Feeder Cattle complex as extreme intraday volatility is seen almost everyday. Open interest remains steady even with the volatility that has been taking place. Today’s Cattle on Feed Report showed lighter placements in Texas compared to a year ago. Placements during the month of May in Texas were down 17% compared to 2024. The closure of the Mexican border continues to keep available Feeder Cattle at limited numbers, making it hard for those feed yards to find cattle to place. There were no other huge changes within the placement category other than Colorado being 29% less than a year ago.
Lean Hogs: The pork cutout has lost its daily higher moves like we have seen in past weeks, but has held steady throughout the week. At the beginning of June, the cutout was at $106.75 and this morning’s cutout was $121.44, resulting in a gain of $14.69 over a 20-day period. The national hog cash price has seen strong gains as well, jumping $7 just this week. Two years ago was the last time we had seen $113+ cash hogs. Cash hogs eventually rose to $130 that same summer. The 2-day Lean Hog index is at $107.59 which is a $5 discount to the July futures. July posted a new contract high of $113.025 today. The spike in cash can be contributed to the seasonal downward trends in weight due to the shortage of market ready hogs. The interesting fact about the lower weights is that we are seeing the packer-owned weights falling at a faster rate than the producer-owned hogs. Disease pressure in the large integrations is creating a hole in production numbers and is forcing some of those integrators to pull ahead hogs to help the shackles remain full.
Corn: December Corn futures started the day higher as heat enters the forecast for most of the corn belt, but could not hold those gains throughout the day. Up to this point, there have been very limited, if any, weather scares that threaten U.S. corn production. Most years the corn market tops around the 20th of June as the market has a glimpse of the coming weather into the beginning of July. The rally that is typically seen to start the summer has not taken place this year as the managed money continues to carry a very large short position, especially for the time of year. Exports were good again this week and Japan was the featured buyer. The U.S. is now over 150 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to meet the new export goal from the USDA. Weather forecasts will be front and center as we head into the Fourth of July holiday and will dictate much of the movement that will take place.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
June 20- Cattle on Feed Report
June 26- Hogs and Pigs Report
June 30- Grain Stocks and Planted Acres
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 6/17/2025
Live Cattle Markets
August Live Cattle finished lower today and could not settle above the 20-day MA. The 20-day MA of 213.100 will be resistance followed by 215.550. Support is at 206.375.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder Cattle failed to hold the 20-day MA today. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 304.625 and then 310.900. Support is at 301.100.
Lean Hogs Markets
July Lean Hogs posted a new contract high today. Resistance will be at that high of 113.025. Support under the market is at 111.200 and then 109.525.
Corn Markets
December Corn stalled out at the 50-day MA this morning. The first resistance area is at the 50-day MA of 447 and then 450 1/2. Support is at 433 3/4.