6/6/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures set new contract and all-time highs again this week, breaking through the 220 level for the first time ever and accelerating past it as the June contract posted a high of 226.750 today. This week marks the 8th week in a row of a higher cash market, and sharply higher every week at that. Since the beginning of April the cash market in the North has gained $30/cwt on a live basis, and the futures have been playing catch up the entire time. Cash trade in the North was 240-244 live and 380 dressed. The South saw a wide spread of cash prices, anywhere from 225 to 235. Boxed beef was steady at best this week and failed to find much upside support the entire week. A steady product market and a higher cash market is adding extra pressure to packer margins. Open interest in the Live Cattle complex climbed to 417,000 after yesterday’s trade, which is the highest for 2025. The all-time record was set in March of 2019 at 455,000 contracts. Interesting to note, the CME is saying that option open interest within the cattle complex is currently record large. The headline in the cattle market continues to be the lack of market-ready fat cattle and all of the leverage is in the feedlot’s hands. While front month futures are forced to converge with the current cash market, the deferred contracts are hesitant to rise as quickly.

Feeder Cattle: The CME Feeder Cattle index posted a new record this week as cash feeders continue to move higher. The current index is at $306.16 which is up $1.30 after Thursday’s sales. This is a $6.86 gain compared to a week ago. As of the close of trade on Tuesday June 3, the managed money was long 34,827 contracts, up 1,569 contracts on the week and is also a new record long position. Talks of the current situation surrounding the Mexican border have quieted down but the closure due to screwworm is still a main topic within the feeder cattle complex. With no current end date available, the question remains how long will the closure last. The USDA said they would review the situation on a monthly basis, but many are beginning to speculate that imports will be shut off until at least December 2025. This would continue to keep the number of available feeder cattle at very tight supplies to U.S. feedlots.

Lean Hogs: The pork cutout continues to gain strength as the morning cutout was up $4.74 at $112.86. All primal cuts showed positive numbers with the bellies leading the charge with a $10.58 increase. With the exception of the nearby June contract, every contract month for Lean Hogs posted new contract highs today. With the continued rally in the pork cutout and talks of disease pressure creating short hog numbers, the futures market has been well supported and the rally continues to be sustained. The June contract will expire next week on Friday and the Lean Hog index is currently $4.25/cwt behind at $98.37. Weekly export data out yesterday showed a total of 36K tonnes for the week, 13K tonnes to China and 12K tonnes to Mexico. This is a 19% increase from the previous week and 25% increase from the prior 4-week average.

Corn: Corn futures finished the week higher after a very quiet week of trade. The U.S. weather outlook continues to look favorable for corn production and has yet to give the managed money a reason to liquidate their short position. For the week ending June 3, the managed money was sellers of 53,283 contracts bringing their net short position to 154,043 contracts. Exports this week were at the lower end of expectations but the U.S. remains nearly 6% ahead of the pace needed to meet the current USDA goal. Prevent Plant acres have been the main topic of debate over the course of the last week with portions of the eastern corn belt, namely Ohio, finding limited windows to get the corn acres planted. The question is how many acres that were intended for corn did not get planted. The market will not get a hard answer from the USDA for many months, but at the current time the market does not feel threatened by the loss of a million or more corn acres.

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn July 442.50 3.00
CHI Wheat July 554.75 9.25
KC Wheat July 549.25 6.75
MN Wheat July 635.25 10.00
Soybeans July 1057.25 5.50
Soy Oil July 47.50 0.85
Soy Meal July 295.70 1.40
Live Cattle June 226.300 3.400
Feeder Cattle August 310.150 1.000
Lean Hogs June 102.625 1.775
Crude Oil July 64.76 1.39
Ch Cutout 365.49 1.36
Sel Cutout 356.71 0.10
Feeder Index 306.16 1.30
Pork Cutout 108.12 1.50
Dollar Index 99.197 0.4560
DOW 42,761 442
National Corn Basis -23.24 0.51
National Bean Basis -47.94 0.27

Dates to Remember

June 6- June Live Cattle Option Expiration

June 12- WASDE Report

June 13- June Lean Hog Expiration

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 102.625 101.325 1.300 92.150 10.475
National Cash 101.85 98.95 2.90 86.23 15.62
Index 97.57 94.13 3.44 91.75 5.82
Cutout 108.12 104.62 3.50 100.69 7.43
IA/SMN Cash 102.55 100.28 2.27 89.13 13.42
IA/SMN Weights 288.30 288.00 0.30 290.40 2.10
Slaughter 2,363,000 2,143,000 220,000 2,415,772 52,772

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 240-244 235.31 4-10 Higher 190.55 49.45
South Cash 225-235 222.32 3-12 Higher 185.05 43.45
North Steer Basis 16.50 20.00 3.50 7.51 8.99
Choice Boxes 365.49 365.99 0.50 316.21 49.28
Select Boxes 356.71 356.88 0.17 300.83 55.88
Spread 8.78 9.11 0.33 15.38 6.60
Carcass Weights 872 871 1 851 21
Slaughter 582,000 477,000 105,000 609,797 27,797
FC Index 306.16 299.30 6.86 250.54 55.62

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM 225-232 $222.00 $184.71
KS 225-235 $222.32 $185.05
NE 240-244 $235.31 $190.55
IA/MN 240-242 $233.56 $190.17

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 6/3/2025
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 131,805 512 -168,450 3,425 416,999 3,764
Feeder Cattle 34,827 1,569 -14,407 2,001 81,226 1,311
Lean Hogs 101,626 7,086 -156,906 14,839 355,432 1,606
Corn -154,043 53,283 -102,452 47,609 1,653,231 14,425
Soybeans 8,601 28,096 -143,487 32,487 879,370 497

Live Cattle Markets

August Live Cattle posted new contract highs on Friday. Slight resistance will be at 220.000 and then 223.000. Support under the market is at 212.475 and the 20-day MA of 210.300.

Feeder Cattle Markets

August Feeder Cattle set new contract highs and all-time highs on Friday. Resistance will be at 315.000. Support is at 304.375 and the 20-day MA of 300.900.

Lean Hogs Markets

New contract highs were posted in the August Lean Hogs on Friday. Resistance will be at 110.000. Support is at 103.975 and then the 20-day MA of 103.500.

Corn Markets

July Corn finished the week higher, but well off its daily high. Resistance is at 446 and then the 20-day MA of 448. Support is at 433 1/4 and then 427 1/2.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

Let's Talk

Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern US and Central Plains.

Nebraska Location

4809 S 114th St
Omaha, NE 68137

Iowa Location

4280 Sergeant Rd, Ste 240
Sioux City, IA 51106

General Contact

PO Box 45978
Omaha, NE 68145

Business Hours

Monday – Friday

8:00 A.M. – 4:00 P.M.