7/10/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: August Live Cattle futures have now finished lower ten trading sessions in a row and have moved to critical support levels. Weakness within the complex has persisted all week due to numerous factors. Cash trade continuing to work lower has scared traders from buying the futures despite the sharp discount that the futures are to the current cash trade. This week, tensions in the middle east pushed the crude oil market higher and resurfaced fears of beef demand. The biggest fundamental problem that has weighed on the futures is the boxed beef market working lower. Both choice and select were quoted higher this morning but both remain well below levels from a few weeks ago. Choice is currently quoted at $383.90 which was up $3.09 on the day and select was $6.16 higher at $369.65. Cash trade this week was sharply lower and well below initial expectations from the beginning of the week. The North traded cattle at 248 live and 393 dressed on Thursday and there was trade of 383 dressed today. The South traded at 248 yesterday and there was small trade of 245 today. Carcass weights continue to work lower and remain at the lowest levels of the year but still significantly larger than a year ago. Steer and heifer weights were down seven pounds this week to 931 while average carcass weights were five pounds lighter at 886. The good basis and high cash market from three weeks ago and prior pulled cattle ahead and has helped lower U.S. beef production.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures lost over $5.000/cwt in the most active August contract and have now lost over $22.000/cwt since the highs that were set on June 25. The Corn market moving higher this week has created resistance for the Feeder Cattle to stabilize any gains along with the Live Cattle complex losing ground. The CME Feeder Cattle index has remained at $370.00 or higher up to this point despite the futures trading well below that level. Today, the futures traded to the lowest levels since June 9, but finished the day $2.000-3.000/cwt off of the lows. Last week’s move lower pushed the futures market through the 20-day MA and this week the market attempted to move back above that level multiple times but could not hold daily gains. Later this week the futures moved below the 100-day MA and more selling came into the complex. Today’s CME Feeder Cattle index was $4.03 lower at $370.42 and is currently at a $15.82 premium to the August futures contract.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures ended mixed with the nearby contracts higher while the deferred contracts ended in the red. The deferred futures finally broke their weekly trend lower as they close the week at the highest levels since the first week in June. The December contract will have resistance at $78.000 and support is the recent low of $72.750. Technical resistance in the August contract is $100.000 while support stands at $94.000. The pork cutout closed at $98.81 yesterday, which is $3.10 higher than last week. This is the highest print on the pork cutout in over a month, led by the bellies, which increased almost $18 in one week. The Lean Hog index closed at $92.35, $0.87 higher than last week. Another week of no huge excitement in the hog complex, with large supplies and a suppressed demand, traders continue to stay short or out of the market. Today’s CFTC Report showed that the managed money added to their net short position by 1,635 contracts last week and currently are net short 29,002 contracts.

Corn: The Corn market started the week pushing higher on weather and growing tensions with Iran, but on Wednesday, it slipped lower on profit taking and positioning ahead of today’s WASDE Report that was released at 11am. The July report is usually a sleeper, but a recent surge in exports and global weather concerns added a little spark to the market. U.S. Corn yield was left unchanged, but estimated Corn production decreased due to a change in harvested acres. U.S. corn ending stocks were cut from 2.145 billion bushels to 2.02 billion bushels due to an increase in exports and feed residual. New crop stocks decreased from 1.96 billion bushels to 1.79 billion bushels due to the decrease in bushels carried into the marketing year. World ending stocks were also lowered due to lower beginning stocks and production cuts in the EU from the drought. Brazil’s Corn production remained unchanged, and Argentina increased by 2 mmt. Now that the report is over, trade will watch the building of “Super” El Niño and the heat dome moving into the Western Corn Belt during the crucial pollination period.