7/11/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Cash trade was sharply higher this week and passed right through many expectations from earlier this week. Trade in the North took place early in the day on Friday at mostly 240, while the South traded at 230 with a fair amount of those cattle traded to northern packers. The higher cash market pushed the futures market to new contract highs in the August contract and right up to the highs posted yesterday in all other months. Boxed beef has flipped lower over the course of the week after a strong start. Choice finished the week $7.22 lower compared to last Thursday while select was down $6.60. Many are growing extremely leery of boxed beef prices and are wondering if seasonal demand is beginning to end. President Trump also announced a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil this week. If followed through on, the tariffs will go into affect on August 1. Brazil has become the number one source for U.S. beef imports and accounts for 27% of all beef imported in 2025. If the tariffs do get implemented, zero Brazilian beef will enter the U.S. due to the increased price.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished higher everyday this week and have now finished higher 11 of the past 12 sessions. New contract highs were posted across the entire complex yesterday as the USDA announced they were again closing the Mexican border after being open for only three days. The CME feeder cattle index also skyrocketed this week and has gained over $10 in just two days. The managed money is again record long the feeder cattle complex and despite any negative news that enters the market, they are defending that position as numbers remain tight and sale barn receipts continue to show new records on a daily basis.

Lean Hogs: Seems to be the same news in the Lean Hog complex that has been seen for the past couple weeks with the exception of the cutout finding a little strength. This week the cutout traded in the $112-$113 range which is $9-$10 below the high this year. Lean Hog futures finished lower today with the August losing a $1.550 and December down $1.700. With July expiring next Tuesday, we still see the futures lag the index by $0.400. The USDA Pork Production Report for the week ending June 28 showed both hog weights and total head slaughtered right on pace with the 3-year averages. As for today’s Supply and Demand Report, pork production was increased 45 million pounds for the second half of 2025 while only increasing exports by 25 million pounds. The biggest shift came in the 2026 prediction being revised up by 110 million pounds, which now puts 2026 production at 28.5 billion pounds, an increase of 1.6% over this year.

Corn: Corn futures finished the week 30 cents off the highs they had made last Thursday. Good weather and forecasts that call for good moisture and moderate temperatures continue to keep the managed money on the short side of the market. Today’s WASDE Report saw few changes, just as expected. Corn production was lowered 115 million bushels on smaller harvested acres and no change to yield. Old crop exports were raised 100 million bushels, but feed demand was lowered a total of 125 million bushels. This report was not expected to be a bullish catalyst for the corn market and that is exactly how it turned out. Traders got right back to trading weather and the huge corn crop that the U.S. is currently growing.