Live Cattle: The Live Cattle complex started the week under heavy pressure but turned around Tuesday and recovered most of those losses. Cash cattle last week were sharply higher. Averages for the week were $7-9 higher than the week prior as the packers were short cattle and needed to fill kill capacity. Boxed beef was higher this morning after a nearly $20 slide that began the middle of last week. Choice was quoted $1.46 higher at $378.53 and Select was $2.03 higher at $366.61. Boxed beef typically trades lower until after the Labor Day holiday and then begins to work higher on holiday demand. Lighter slaughter rates will continue to support boxed beef even if demand does begin to falter. On Friday the USDA increased their beef import forecast for 2025 to help make up for the decrease in U.S. production. This of course is going to hinge on the Brazilian tariffs that are set to go into affect August 1. If the 50% tariff does in fact go into affect, the U.S. will import zero beef from Brazil.
Feeder Cattle: The cash market has been the story within the Feeder Cattle Complex. The CME Feeder Cattle index was quoted lower through Friday’s sales after a new all-time high on Thursday. Monday’s sales brought the index back up to $321.10, just $2.27 below the record. The strong cash market has enticed the managed money to continue to buy Feeder Cattle futures. As of last Tuesday, the managed money sector was long 37,493 contracts which is an all-time record. Open interest within the Feeder Cattle complex also remains record large. There has been no news or update from the USDA concerning the Mexican border. The latest release simply states that “We must see additional progress combatting New World Screwworm in Veracruz and other nearby Mexican states in order to reopen livestock ports along the Southern border.”
Lean Hogs: Lean Hogs posted a new low for the move today before seeing a slight recovery. Most of the deferred contracts have seen nearly a $10 correction over the course of the last month as the futures follow the cutout and cash markets lower. Open interest has begun to decline and would indicate fund liquidation. The managed money was record long two weeks ago and has since decreased that position. Exports for 2025 are currently running close to 4% less than a year ago, while the USDA is forecasting pork exports to be down 2% compared to a year ago. Trade tensions with China and Mexico are definitely to blame, but the increased pork cost is also hurting pork exports.
Corn: Corn futures posted new contract lows Sunday night before finishing higher each of the first two days this week. Futures dropped below the $4 mark for the first time in nearly a year and spurred short covering. Fundamentally, there has been little change and Friday’s WASDE Report confirmed this. Weather continues to be the main focus on traders minds and the extended forecasts do not show any threat to the U.S. and the growing crop. Going forward the chances of a lower average yield are very slim and many are anticipating the U.S. average yield could be increased two bushel per acre over the course of the next few months.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
Sept
401.25
1.25
CHI Wheat
Sept
538.00
3.50
KC Wheat
Sept
523.75
0.75
Soybeans
August
995.00
6.00
Soy Oil
August
54.56
0.39
Soy Meal
August
265.30
2.40
Live Cattle
August
222.400
3.050
Feeder Cattle
August
322.275
2.800
Lean Hogs
August
103.925
0.700
Crude Oil
August
66.65
0.33
Ch Cutout
378.53
1.46
Sel Cutout
366.61
2.03
Feeder Index
321.10
1.21
Pork Cutout
113.85
0.35
Dollar Index
98.633
0.5520
DOW
44,106
353
National Corn Basis
-12.38
0.02
National Bean Basis
-44.56
2.53
Dates to Remember
July 25- Cattle on Feed
July 25- Cattle Inventory
July 25- Cold Storage
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
106.850
106.975
0.125
88.650
18.200
National Cash
109.58
110.21
0.63
83.12
26.46
Index
107.25
108.33
1.08
88.62
18.63
Cutout
113.85
113.49
0.36
98.29
15.56
IA/SMN Cash
107.43
110.59
3.16
83.36
24.07
IA/SMN Weights
282.70
284.10
1.40
285.30
2.60
Slaughter
2,371,000
1,846,000
525,000
2,369,172
1,828
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
240.02
240.02
South Cash
229.68
229.68
North Steer Basis
19.00
14.26
Choice Boxes
378.53
395.81
17.28
321.49
57.04
Select Boxes
366.61
385.02
18.41
304.82
61.79
Spread
11.92
10.79
1.13
16.67
4.75
Carcass Weights
865
869
4
841
24
Slaughter
568,000
474,000
94,000
604,573
36,573
FC Index
321.10
312.04
9.06
261.88
59.12
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$229.27
$188.15
KS
$229.68
$188.04
NE
$240.02
$196.07
IA/MN
$238.88
$195.92
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 7/8/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
128,423
1,039
-163,349
4,040
394,576
1,200
Feeder Cattle
37,493
3,607
-15,389
1,809
95,593
1,946
Lean Hogs
131,779
2,788
-178,398
2,227
355,575
5,757
Corn
203,861
2,602
-30,181
3,650
1,491,977
17,351
Soybeans
6,216
6,641
-110,199
9,392
876,111
5,420
Live Cattle Markets
August Live Cattle finished sharply higher after a sharply lower day Monday. Resistance is at the contract high of 223.275 and then 225.875. Support is at 217.200 and then 215.900.
Feeder Cattle Markets
Today, August Feeder Cattle recovered half of the losses from Monday. Support will be at yesterday’s low of 318.700 and then 313.725. Resistance is at 325.775 and then the contract high of 326.875.
Lean Hogs Markets
August Lean Hogs were the only contract that finished higher today. Support is at 102.700 followed by 100.450. Resistance is at 108.150 followed by the 20-day MA of 108.600.
Corn Markets
December Corn posted a new contract low to begin the week but has finished higher both days. Support is at the contract low of 407 1/2. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 426 1/4 and then 432 3/4.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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7/15/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: The Live Cattle complex started the week under heavy pressure but turned around Tuesday and recovered most of those losses. Cash cattle last week were sharply higher. Averages for the week were $7-9 higher than the week prior as the packers were short cattle and needed to fill kill capacity. Boxed beef was higher this morning after a nearly $20 slide that began the middle of last week. Choice was quoted $1.46 higher at $378.53 and Select was $2.03 higher at $366.61. Boxed beef typically trades lower until after the Labor Day holiday and then begins to work higher on holiday demand. Lighter slaughter rates will continue to support boxed beef even if demand does begin to falter. On Friday the USDA increased their beef import forecast for 2025 to help make up for the decrease in U.S. production. This of course is going to hinge on the Brazilian tariffs that are set to go into affect August 1. If the 50% tariff does in fact go into affect, the U.S. will import zero beef from Brazil.
Feeder Cattle: The cash market has been the story within the Feeder Cattle Complex. The CME Feeder Cattle index was quoted lower through Friday’s sales after a new all-time high on Thursday. Monday’s sales brought the index back up to $321.10, just $2.27 below the record. The strong cash market has enticed the managed money to continue to buy Feeder Cattle futures. As of last Tuesday, the managed money sector was long 37,493 contracts which is an all-time record. Open interest within the Feeder Cattle complex also remains record large. There has been no news or update from the USDA concerning the Mexican border. The latest release simply states that “We must see additional progress combatting New World Screwworm in Veracruz and other nearby Mexican states in order to reopen livestock ports along the Southern border.”
Lean Hogs: Lean Hogs posted a new low for the move today before seeing a slight recovery. Most of the deferred contracts have seen nearly a $10 correction over the course of the last month as the futures follow the cutout and cash markets lower. Open interest has begun to decline and would indicate fund liquidation. The managed money was record long two weeks ago and has since decreased that position. Exports for 2025 are currently running close to 4% less than a year ago, while the USDA is forecasting pork exports to be down 2% compared to a year ago. Trade tensions with China and Mexico are definitely to blame, but the increased pork cost is also hurting pork exports.
Corn: Corn futures posted new contract lows Sunday night before finishing higher each of the first two days this week. Futures dropped below the $4 mark for the first time in nearly a year and spurred short covering. Fundamentally, there has been little change and Friday’s WASDE Report confirmed this. Weather continues to be the main focus on traders minds and the extended forecasts do not show any threat to the U.S. and the growing crop. Going forward the chances of a lower average yield are very slim and many are anticipating the U.S. average yield could be increased two bushel per acre over the course of the next few months.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
July 25- Cattle on Feed
July 25- Cattle Inventory
July 25- Cold Storage
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 7/8/2025
Live Cattle Markets
August Live Cattle finished sharply higher after a sharply lower day Monday. Resistance is at the contract high of 223.275 and then 225.875. Support is at 217.200 and then 215.900.
Feeder Cattle Markets
Today, August Feeder Cattle recovered half of the losses from Monday. Support will be at yesterday’s low of 318.700 and then 313.725. Resistance is at 325.775 and then the contract high of 326.875.
Lean Hogs Markets
August Lean Hogs were the only contract that finished higher today. Support is at 102.700 followed by 100.450. Resistance is at 108.150 followed by the 20-day MA of 108.600.
Corn Markets
December Corn posted a new contract low to begin the week but has finished higher both days. Support is at the contract low of 407 1/2. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 426 1/4 and then 432 3/4.