Live Cattle: August Live Cattle made a new contract high of 224.550 today, but closed slightly lower at 223.550. The nearby contracts all finished slightly lower, while larger losses were seen in the deferred contracts. Choice boxes were $0.77 higher at $374.05 this morning, while Select was down $1.00 at $352.84. Cash trade in the North was steady with last week as most trade took place at 240 live and 380 dressed. The steady cash should be considered a win as we continue to see packer margins erode with the boxed beef prices moving lower, as we continue to see boxes seasonally trade lower now through beginning of September. Brazil has indicated they are ready to come to the negotiation table on the 50% tariffs Trump has announced to start on August 1. This would allow beef to continue flowing into the U.S. from Brazil and also keep pressure on boxed beef.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle Futures have become the leader of the entire cattle complex. The CME Feeder Cattle index did not move much this week after the sharply higher prices seen a week ago. The Feeder Cattle charts are beginning to look slightly concerning as they have traded into the same area four times now, and could not take out the contract highs from last Thursday. There have been no updates announced from the USDA surrounding the Mexican border. Today’s CFTC report again showed the funds record long the Feeder Cattle complex.
Lean Hogs: The Lean Hog complex began the week with sharp losses but saw a rebound mid-week leaving most contracts nearly unchanged on the week. The $3 increase in the pork cutout this week helped spark the rebound, and is now $6 off the low of $110.21 seen heading into the July 4th holiday. The bellies once again are leading the cutout higher as this morning’s cutout report shows them $14.50 higher than Monday morning’s report. Exports have been disappointing as the data released Thursday morning showed just 17K tonnes for the week. That is 12K tonnes shy of the 10-week average of 29K tonnes.
Corn: New crop Corn futures finished higher four of the five days this week and gained 15 cents from last Friday’s close. The higher futures market has been driven by technical factors that sparked a short-covering rally. Futures neared the $4 mark at the end of last week and found support at that level. For the first time all summer, the market has began to trade weather and add some premium into the market. The weather outlook has turned to warmer than normal temperatures through October. Pollination issues are also being heard from around the U.S., but the futures will not realize that as threat to production until later in the year when the combines get rolling.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
Sept
408.50
6.50
CHI Wheat
Sept
546.25
12.75
KC Wheat
Sept
529.00
11.50
Soybeans
August
1027.75
6.25
Soy Oil
August
55.82
0.40
Soy Meal
August
274.00
5.30
Live Cattle
August
223.550
0.125
Feeder Cattle
August
324.000
1.000
Lean Hogs
August
106.475
0.650
Crude Oil
August
67.46
0.08
Ch Cutout
374.05
0.77
Sel Cutout
352.84
1.00
Feeder Index
322.28
0.11
Pork Cutout
116.32
1.58
Dollar Index
98.503
0.2310
DOW
44,309
175
National Corn Basis
-12.36
0.14
National Bean Basis
-44.89
1.58
Dates to Remember
July 25- Cattle on Feed
July 25- Cattle Inventory
July 25- Cold Storage
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
106.475
106.725
0.250
91.375
15.350
National Cash
110.70
112.43
1.73
85.39
25.31
Index
107.63
107.14
0.49
89.71
17.92
Cutout
116.32
114.15
2.16
100.25
16.07
IA/SMN Cash
111.09
113.21
2.12
87.09
24.00
IA/SMN Weights
282.70
282.70
0.00
284.70
2.00
Slaughter
2,342,000
2,353,000
11,000
2,373,523
31,523
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
240
240.02
Steady
196.07
43.93
South Cash
230
229.68
Steady to 1 higher
188.04
41.96
North Steer Basis
16.00
19.00
3.00
14.26
1.74
Choice Boxes
374.05
383.55
9.50
316.15
57.90
Select Boxes
352.84
372.39
19.55
299.46
53.38
Spread
21.21
11.17
10.04
16.69
4.52
Carcass Weights
866
865
1
847
19
Slaughter
563,000
568,000
5,000
589,374
26,374
FC Index
322.28
321.84
0.44
259.26
63.02
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
230-231
$229.27
$188.15
KS
230-231
$229.68
$188.04
NE
238-240
$240.02
$196.07
IA/MN
238-240
$238.88
$195.92
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 7/15/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
132,486
4,063
-167,956
4,607
401,036
2,999
Feeder Cattle
37,569
76
-16,331
942
95,828
255
Lean Hogs
114,593
17,186
168,928
9,470
343,250
3,757
Corn
-174,755
29,106
-40,294
10,113
1,465,863
4,597
Soybeans
32,278
26,062
-84,104
26,095
888,240
2,023
Live Cattle Markets
October Live Cattle posted a new contract high this week. Resistance will be at the contract high of 221.175. Support is at 216.150 and then 215.125.
Feeder Cattle Markets
September Feeder Cattle could not get through its contract high this week. Resistance is at the contract high of 326.575. Support is at 318.575 and then the 20-day MA of 313.625.
Lean Hogs Markets
August Lean Hogs finished higher the final four days this week. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 107.625. Support is at 104.225 and then 102.700.
Corn Markets
December Corn futures finally traded through the 20-day MA and finished the week sharply higher. Support is at the 20-day MA of 424. Resistance is at the 50-day MA of 435.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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7/18/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: August Live Cattle made a new contract high of 224.550 today, but closed slightly lower at 223.550. The nearby contracts all finished slightly lower, while larger losses were seen in the deferred contracts. Choice boxes were $0.77 higher at $374.05 this morning, while Select was down $1.00 at $352.84. Cash trade in the North was steady with last week as most trade took place at 240 live and 380 dressed. The steady cash should be considered a win as we continue to see packer margins erode with the boxed beef prices moving lower, as we continue to see boxes seasonally trade lower now through beginning of September. Brazil has indicated they are ready to come to the negotiation table on the 50% tariffs Trump has announced to start on August 1. This would allow beef to continue flowing into the U.S. from Brazil and also keep pressure on boxed beef.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle Futures have become the leader of the entire cattle complex. The CME Feeder Cattle index did not move much this week after the sharply higher prices seen a week ago. The Feeder Cattle charts are beginning to look slightly concerning as they have traded into the same area four times now, and could not take out the contract highs from last Thursday. There have been no updates announced from the USDA surrounding the Mexican border. Today’s CFTC report again showed the funds record long the Feeder Cattle complex.
Lean Hogs: The Lean Hog complex began the week with sharp losses but saw a rebound mid-week leaving most contracts nearly unchanged on the week. The $3 increase in the pork cutout this week helped spark the rebound, and is now $6 off the low of $110.21 seen heading into the July 4th holiday. The bellies once again are leading the cutout higher as this morning’s cutout report shows them $14.50 higher than Monday morning’s report. Exports have been disappointing as the data released Thursday morning showed just 17K tonnes for the week. That is 12K tonnes shy of the 10-week average of 29K tonnes.
Corn: New crop Corn futures finished higher four of the five days this week and gained 15 cents from last Friday’s close. The higher futures market has been driven by technical factors that sparked a short-covering rally. Futures neared the $4 mark at the end of last week and found support at that level. For the first time all summer, the market has began to trade weather and add some premium into the market. The weather outlook has turned to warmer than normal temperatures through October. Pollination issues are also being heard from around the U.S., but the futures will not realize that as threat to production until later in the year when the combines get rolling.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
July 25- Cattle on Feed
July 25- Cattle Inventory
July 25- Cold Storage
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 7/15/2025
Live Cattle Markets
October Live Cattle posted a new contract high this week. Resistance will be at the contract high of 221.175. Support is at 216.150 and then 215.125.
Feeder Cattle Markets
September Feeder Cattle could not get through its contract high this week. Resistance is at the contract high of 326.575. Support is at 318.575 and then the 20-day MA of 313.625.
Lean Hogs Markets
August Lean Hogs finished higher the final four days this week. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 107.625. Support is at 104.225 and then 102.700.
Corn Markets
December Corn futures finally traded through the 20-day MA and finished the week sharply higher. Support is at the 20-day MA of 424. Resistance is at the 50-day MA of 435.