7/2/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures struggled to find any support all week as the technical picture deteriorated, boxed beef moved lower, and cash trade was lower yesterday. The August contract lost $6.600/cwt this week and has quickly dropped $10.775/cwt from the highs set last week. The futures traded through the 20-day MA this week and then fell below the 100-day MA near the end of the day today. There are limited support areas on the charts below today’s settlement but the market will look to hold at the spike low in the middle of June when JBS announced they would be closing two processing facilities. Cash trade was lower in all regions this week as packers were not very aggressive. The North traded cattle at 255-256 live yesterday and 403 dressed while the South traded at 255. Boxed beef worked lower all week and both choice and select were quoted lower this morning. Choice was down $3.61 to $387.65 and select was down $0.49 to $369.20. Talk within the industry continues to highlight how poor the beef movement is and resistance at the meat counter. With no markets tomorrow, traders took profit ahead of the long weekend after seeing the poor fundamentals this week.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures traded to the lowest level in over two weeks today and have now finished lower five days in a row. After the CME Feeder Cattle index posted a new all-time record high of $381.86 last Thursday, it has been quoted lower each day and has now lost $10.61. Today’s release of the index was $5.74 lower at $371.25 though Wednesday’s sales. Last week’s big jump was mostly due to the Feeder Cattle Sale in Bassett, NE and the numbers for that sale moved out of the index on today’s release. The futures topped on the same day that the index posted its record high and now the August contract has dropped nearly $17.000/cwt. The Corn market appears to have found some support around the $4 level and has recovered as well, increasing cost of gains and lowering the amount feedlots can pay for cash Feeder Cattle. Currently, the Feeder Cattle index is at a $10.62 premium to the nearby futures contract. This week’s CFTC Report will be released on Monday and will show the managed money activity as of Tuesday of this week.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hogs ended the short trading week mixed with the nearby contracts $0.500 to $1.700/cwt higher and the deferred contracts $0.075-0.300/cwt lower. The nearby August contract had a key reversal higher on the week by breaking last week’s low and closing above its high. August chart resistance is between $99.250 and $100.750 while support areas are $96.750 and $94.000. The deferred contracts did not have the same results on the week, closing near contract lows. The Pork cutout came in at $95.71 yesterday, $0.49 higher than the previous week. The Lean Hog index settled at $91.48 today, right near the middle of the monthly trading range. Total open interest is currently around 294,000 contracts, near the 2026 low set in June at 291,000. With limited cutout and index movement, traders are becoming a bit disinterested in the Lean Hog complex.

Corn: The Corn complex finished the week higher after the Quarterly Stocks Report surprised traders in the middle of the week, reducing Corn stocks by more than 100 million bushels. Planted Corn acres came in at the high end of estimates, but still within the range. There may be a little weather premium being built back into the market due to rains being spotty across drought-stricken areas, and heat settling into the U.S. Corn Belt. Other areas across the world are also reporting drought and heat stress. Ethanol grind also helped Corn move higher at the end of the week as Corn used for ethanol was up 10% from April and 6% more compared to a year ago. December Corn bounced off their lows of 425 3/4 for the week, to close today at 441 1/2 with resistance levels at 450.