8/1/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures recovered to end the week after a sharp sell off on Thursday. The correction looked to be end-of-the-month position squaring and fund activity as there was no fundamental news that supported the lower trade. Cash cattle traded higher despite the futures market action. Cattle in the North traded mainly at 245, but there has been some trade at 247 in Nebraska today. The South traded at 235 and there were a few cattle traded at 240 on a delivered basis. Boxed beef continues to move lower and put more pressure on packer margins. This morning choice was up $2.83 to $364.15 but that is $3.31 below a week ago. Select was $0.77 lower at $340.60 which is $5.01 below a week ago. The choice select spread continues to widen out and is now at $23.55. Total slaughter this week was 535,000 head, down 14,000 compared to a week ago and over 57,000 less than the same week a year ago. Futures posted new contract highs the first three days of the week before the lower move on Thursday, but still finished the week with a net gain across all contracts.

Feeder Cattle: After gaining more than $30.000/cwt throughout the month of July, Feeder Cattle futures traded limit lower at one point on Thursday and finished the day over $8.000 lower. The futures bounced back to end the week and finished the week higher. The CME Feeder Cattle index posted a new record high of $335.89 this week as cash feeder cattle continue to set new records across all classes of cattle. Corn has traded back to near contract lows, creating cheap feed for the feedlots, allowing them to increase the price they can pay for Feeder Cattle. According to this afternoon’s CFTC Report, the managed money were sellers of 2,680 contracts decreasing their long position to 35,126 contracts. This is the first time in four weeks that the funds have not set a new record long.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures recovered nicely throughout the day on Friday and finished the day higher. Weekly export sales were very good this week and Mexico was the featured buyer. Total volume was more than double the prior week and was a five-week high. Mexico accounted for over 57% of the total volume. The pork cutout moved lower and lost $4.86 this week after staying steady all of last week. Without the cutout pushing higher, the futures have struggled to find support and move back toward their contract highs. Today’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as sellers of 2,821 contracts decreasing their long position to 107,586 contracts.

Corn: December corn futures pushed back down to near its contract low this week but held every day. Good weather and huge production continues to keep corn prices in check and keep the managed money on the short side of the market. Crude oil moving lower is not a friend of the corn market either.  Export sales were very good for corn this week, especially for new crop. There have been many flash sales over the past few weeks and the U.S. continues to be competitive in the world market. Currently, export demand is well above what the USDA has set for the marketing year target, with just four weeks remaining. Basis continues to slip lower as many farmers are forced to clean out the bins to make room for the massive crop that is in the fields.

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn Sept 389.50 4.50
CHI Wheat Sept 516.75 6.50
KC Wheat Sept 518.75 7.50
Soybeans August 961.75 0.00
Soy Oil August 54.72 0.86
Soy Meal August 267.50 5.70
Live Cattle August 230.125 2.350
Feeder Cattle August 334.575 3.200
Lean Hogs August 107.350 0.225
Crude Oil Sept 67.27 1.99
Ch Cutout 364.15 2.83
Sel Cutout 340.60 0.77
Feeder Index 335.89 0.88
Pork Cutout 114.00 2.00
Dollar Index 98.810 1.1550
DOW 43,547 583
National Corn Basis -15.47 0.13
National Bean Basis -27.21 1.03

Dates to Remember

August 1- August Live Cattle Option Expiration

August 12- WASDE Report

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 107.350 108.700 1.350 93.150 14.200
National Cash 111.67 113.61 1.94 85.23 26.44
Index 110.37 109.95 0.42 93.64 16.73
Cutout 114.00 117.54 3.54 105.86 8.14
IA/SMN Cash 111.82 114.28 2.46 86.08 25.74
IA/SMN Weights 281.10 282.90 1.80 282.70 1.60
Slaughter 2,336,000 2,328,000 8,000 2,442,879 106,879

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 243-247 243.63 2-4 Higher 196.22 48.78
South Cash 235 232.87 3-4 Higher 188.14 46.86
North Steer Basis 17.50 13.50 4.00 11.11 6.39
Choice Boxes 364.15 367.46 3.31 312.79 51.36
Select Boxes 340.60 345.61 5.01 297.46 43.14
Spread 23.55 21.85 1.70 15.33 8.22
Carcass Weights 864 866 2 839 25
Slaughter 535,000 549,000 14,000 592,526 57,526
FC Index 335.89 328.83 7.06 257.82 78.07

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM 235 $230.90 $187.83
KS 235 $232.87 $188.14
NE 243-247 $243.63 $196.22
IA/MN 243-245 $240.34 $195.83

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 7/29/2025
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 128,509 3,150 -168,681 1 401,675 1,213
Feeder Cattle 35,126 2,680 -17,574 642 96,980 756
Lean Hogs 107,586 2,821 -163,959 1,328 335,260 295
Corn -181,185 3,820 -24,942 3,290 1,586,639 11,766
Soybeans -36,311 25,445 -87,759 15,991 850,798 5,469

Live Cattle Markets

October Live Cattle gained 0.525 this week. Support is at 221.200 and then the 20-day MA of 221.000. Resistance is at the contract high of 230.425.

Feeder Cattle Markets

September Feeder Cattle finished the week with a 1.725 weekly gain. Support is at 328.025 followed by the 20-day MA of 327.175. Resistance is at the contract high of 341.050.

Lean Hogs Markets

October Lean Hogs failed to trade above the 20-day MA this week. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 90.500 and then 91.975. Support is at 87.925 and then the 100-day MA of 86.925.

Corn Markets

December Corn held the contract low after trading near it four days this week. Support is at the contract low of 407 1/2. Resistance is at 416 and then the 20-day MA of 417 1/2.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

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Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern US and Central Plains.

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