Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures recovered to end the week after a sharp sell off on Thursday. The correction looked to be end-of-the-month position squaring and fund activity as there was no fundamental news that supported the lower trade. Cash cattle traded higher despite the futures market action. Cattle in the North traded mainly at 245, but there has been some trade at 247 in Nebraska today. The South traded at 235 and there were a few cattle traded at 240 on a delivered basis. Boxed beef continues to move lower and put more pressure on packer margins. This morning choice was up $2.83 to $364.15 but that is $3.31 below a week ago. Select was $0.77 lower at $340.60 which is $5.01 below a week ago. The choice select spread continues to widen out and is now at $23.55. Total slaughter this week was 535,000 head, down 14,000 compared to a week ago and over 57,000 less than the same week a year ago. Futures posted new contract highs the first three days of the week before the lower move on Thursday, but still finished the week with a net gain across all contracts.
Feeder Cattle: After gaining more than $30.000/cwt throughout the month of July, Feeder Cattle futures traded limit lower at one point on Thursday and finished the day over $8.000 lower. The futures bounced back to end the week and finished the week higher. The CME Feeder Cattle index posted a new record high of $335.89 this week as cash feeder cattle continue to set new records across all classes of cattle. Corn has traded back to near contract lows, creating cheap feed for the feedlots, allowing them to increase the price they can pay for Feeder Cattle. According to this afternoon’s CFTC Report, the managed money were sellers of 2,680 contracts decreasing their long position to 35,126 contracts. This is the first time in four weeks that the funds have not set a new record long.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures recovered nicely throughout the day on Friday and finished the day higher. Weekly export sales were very good this week and Mexico was the featured buyer. Total volume was more than double the prior week and was a five-week high. Mexico accounted for over 57% of the total volume. The pork cutout moved lower and lost $4.86 this week after staying steady all of last week. Without the cutout pushing higher, the futures have struggled to find support and move back toward their contract highs. Today’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as sellers of 2,821 contracts decreasing their long position to 107,586 contracts.
Corn: December corn futures pushed back down to near its contract low this week but held every day. Good weather and huge production continues to keep corn prices in check and keep the managed money on the short side of the market. Crude oil moving lower is not a friend of the corn market either. Export sales were very good for corn this week, especially for new crop. There have been many flash sales over the past few weeks and the U.S. continues to be competitive in the world market. Currently, export demand is well above what the USDA has set for the marketing year target, with just four weeks remaining. Basis continues to slip lower as many farmers are forced to clean out the bins to make room for the massive crop that is in the fields.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
Sept
389.50
4.50
CHI Wheat
Sept
516.75
6.50
KC Wheat
Sept
518.75
7.50
Soybeans
August
961.75
0.00
Soy Oil
August
54.72
0.86
Soy Meal
August
267.50
5.70
Live Cattle
August
230.125
2.350
Feeder Cattle
August
334.575
3.200
Lean Hogs
August
107.350
0.225
Crude Oil
Sept
67.27
1.99
Ch Cutout
364.15
2.83
Sel Cutout
340.60
0.77
Feeder Index
335.89
0.88
Pork Cutout
114.00
2.00
Dollar Index
98.810
1.1550
DOW
43,547
583
National Corn Basis
-15.47
0.13
National Bean Basis
-27.21
1.03
Dates to Remember
August 1- August Live Cattle Option Expiration
August 12- WASDE Report
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
107.350
108.700
1.350
93.150
14.200
National Cash
111.67
113.61
1.94
85.23
26.44
Index
110.37
109.95
0.42
93.64
16.73
Cutout
114.00
117.54
3.54
105.86
8.14
IA/SMN Cash
111.82
114.28
2.46
86.08
25.74
IA/SMN Weights
281.10
282.90
1.80
282.70
1.60
Slaughter
2,336,000
2,328,000
8,000
2,442,879
106,879
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
243-247
243.63
2-4 Higher
196.22
48.78
South Cash
235
232.87
3-4 Higher
188.14
46.86
North Steer Basis
17.50
13.50
4.00
11.11
6.39
Choice Boxes
364.15
367.46
3.31
312.79
51.36
Select Boxes
340.60
345.61
5.01
297.46
43.14
Spread
23.55
21.85
1.70
15.33
8.22
Carcass Weights
864
866
2
839
25
Slaughter
535,000
549,000
14,000
592,526
57,526
FC Index
335.89
328.83
7.06
257.82
78.07
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
235
$230.90
$187.83
KS
235
$232.87
$188.14
NE
243-247
$243.63
$196.22
IA/MN
243-245
$240.34
$195.83
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 7/29/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
128,509
3,150
-168,681
1
401,675
1,213
Feeder Cattle
35,126
2,680
-17,574
642
96,980
756
Lean Hogs
107,586
2,821
-163,959
1,328
335,260
295
Corn
-181,185
3,820
-24,942
3,290
1,586,639
11,766
Soybeans
-36,311
25,445
-87,759
15,991
850,798
5,469
Live Cattle Markets
October Live Cattle gained 0.525 this week. Support is at 221.200 and then the 20-day MA of 221.000. Resistance is at the contract high of 230.425.
Feeder Cattle Markets
September Feeder Cattle finished the week with a 1.725 weekly gain. Support is at 328.025 followed by the 20-day MA of 327.175. Resistance is at the contract high of 341.050.
Lean Hogs Markets
October Lean Hogs failed to trade above the 20-day MA this week. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 90.500 and then 91.975. Support is at 87.925 and then the 100-day MA of 86.925.
Corn Markets
December Corn held the contract low after trading near it four days this week. Support is at the contract low of 407 1/2. Resistance is at 416 and then the 20-day MA of 417 1/2.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
Let's Talk
Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern US and Central Plains.
8/1/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures recovered to end the week after a sharp sell off on Thursday. The correction looked to be end-of-the-month position squaring and fund activity as there was no fundamental news that supported the lower trade. Cash cattle traded higher despite the futures market action. Cattle in the North traded mainly at 245, but there has been some trade at 247 in Nebraska today. The South traded at 235 and there were a few cattle traded at 240 on a delivered basis. Boxed beef continues to move lower and put more pressure on packer margins. This morning choice was up $2.83 to $364.15 but that is $3.31 below a week ago. Select was $0.77 lower at $340.60 which is $5.01 below a week ago. The choice select spread continues to widen out and is now at $23.55. Total slaughter this week was 535,000 head, down 14,000 compared to a week ago and over 57,000 less than the same week a year ago. Futures posted new contract highs the first three days of the week before the lower move on Thursday, but still finished the week with a net gain across all contracts.
Feeder Cattle: After gaining more than $30.000/cwt throughout the month of July, Feeder Cattle futures traded limit lower at one point on Thursday and finished the day over $8.000 lower. The futures bounced back to end the week and finished the week higher. The CME Feeder Cattle index posted a new record high of $335.89 this week as cash feeder cattle continue to set new records across all classes of cattle. Corn has traded back to near contract lows, creating cheap feed for the feedlots, allowing them to increase the price they can pay for Feeder Cattle. According to this afternoon’s CFTC Report, the managed money were sellers of 2,680 contracts decreasing their long position to 35,126 contracts. This is the first time in four weeks that the funds have not set a new record long.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures recovered nicely throughout the day on Friday and finished the day higher. Weekly export sales were very good this week and Mexico was the featured buyer. Total volume was more than double the prior week and was a five-week high. Mexico accounted for over 57% of the total volume. The pork cutout moved lower and lost $4.86 this week after staying steady all of last week. Without the cutout pushing higher, the futures have struggled to find support and move back toward their contract highs. Today’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as sellers of 2,821 contracts decreasing their long position to 107,586 contracts.
Corn: December corn futures pushed back down to near its contract low this week but held every day. Good weather and huge production continues to keep corn prices in check and keep the managed money on the short side of the market. Crude oil moving lower is not a friend of the corn market either. Export sales were very good for corn this week, especially for new crop. There have been many flash sales over the past few weeks and the U.S. continues to be competitive in the world market. Currently, export demand is well above what the USDA has set for the marketing year target, with just four weeks remaining. Basis continues to slip lower as many farmers are forced to clean out the bins to make room for the massive crop that is in the fields.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
August 1- August Live Cattle Option Expiration
August 12- WASDE Report
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 7/29/2025
Live Cattle Markets
October Live Cattle gained 0.525 this week. Support is at 221.200 and then the 20-day MA of 221.000. Resistance is at the contract high of 230.425.
Feeder Cattle Markets
September Feeder Cattle finished the week with a 1.725 weekly gain. Support is at 328.025 followed by the 20-day MA of 327.175. Resistance is at the contract high of 341.050.
Lean Hogs Markets
October Lean Hogs failed to trade above the 20-day MA this week. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 90.500 and then 91.975. Support is at 87.925 and then the 100-day MA of 86.925.
Corn Markets
December Corn held the contract low after trading near it four days this week. Support is at the contract low of 407 1/2. Resistance is at 416 and then the 20-day MA of 417 1/2.