8/15/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded within a dollar of contract highs today after another week of disappointment in the cash market. Cash trade in the North took place at 245 early in the week but had drifted as low as 240 by late in the day on Thursday. There was some trade at 242 on Friday after the futures found strength. 237 was paid in Kansas earlier this week but bids have been lowered to 233 today. Boxed beef continues its move higher. This morning choice was up $6.02 to $399.81, capping off an over $22 higher move for the week. Select was also higher and was quoted up $1.23 at $368.11. The choice/select spread has widened out to $31.70 with the move higher. Total slaughter this week was only 530,000 which is 6,000 head less than a week ago and over 75,000 behind last year. The lighter kill is undoubtably what is behind the higher boxed beef market.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures found support from the USDA comments on the current Screwworm situation and finished the day sharply higher. Futures opened the day nearly unchanged and were sharply lower in the first half hour of trade, and by days end had traded within a dollar of contract highs. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced that the U.S. is investing $750 million in a fly production plant to combat the spread of Screwworm, along with Mexico agreeing to move cattle to central Mexico to increase the distance of cattle from the U.S. border. Yesterday, the fear was this press conference would lay out a plan of reopening for the Mexican border and today’s comments were essentially the opposite. Currently, there is no plan or timeline as to when the border will open and cattle that are currently in Mexico will relocate further from the border. The CME Feeder Cattle index is currently at $345.75 which was $0.26 lower. This is the first time the index has been lower in ten days and only the second time in seventeen days. Cash Feeder Cattle continue to move higher as the Live Cattle board moves higher and feed remains cheap.

Lean Hogs: The August contract expired yesterday and was nearly unchanged while the rest of the contracts were 1.400 to 1.650 lower. Technical damage looked to be caused by fund selling, but this morning’s open interest showed an increase of over 4,500 contracts which would not support the idea of fund liquidation. Futures recovered nicely today, gaining back all of the losses from yesterday. Even with today’s gains, October finished 0.700 lower on the week.  The next technical support level for the October is around the 88.000 area. The cash market continues to trade in the $108 to $112 range, while the cutout has been stuck between $114 to $119 for the last four weeks. Export data for the week ending August 7 was released yesterday and showed total sales at 21,000 metric tonnes. Japan was the top buyer at 6,500 metric tonnes. Shipments were at a 3-week low with Mexico being the top destination.

Corn: Corn futures rebounded nicely after setting a new contract low earlier this week. Tuesday the USDA released their monthly WASDE report and estimated a new record production for the U.S. for the 2025 crop. New crop futures have rallied over 13 cents since that low. Exports this week were again very good. Currently, the U.S. has the second largest amount of new crop sales in the last six years. Overall, demand has been very strong and looks to remain strong into the near future. Cheaper prices and increased supply will entice more corn usage for feed and ethanol production along with increased interest from other countries for export demand.