Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded on both sides of steady today as traders wait to see what the cash market trades at this week. Boxed beef continued its move higher this morning as choice was up $3.96 to $408.20 while select was up $2.64 to $379.78. Boxed beef continues to be supported by a slow kill pace this week as packers continue to help their overall margins. This Friday the USDA will release their monthly Cattle on Feed Report. Estimates ahead of the report are for cattle on feed to be down 2% compared to a year ago. Placements down nearly 9% and marketings 6% lower than 2024. More and more focus is being shifted to heifer retention and what that looks like going forward. This is evident in the bear spreads in the futures over the last week.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures set new contract highs again today as fund buying continues to propel futures to uncharted territory. Yesterday’s CME Feeder Cattle index was quoted $3.48 lower but the futures did not pay any attention. The bulk of the volume came from Texas direct sales which typically has a negative affect of the index. Cheap corn and the tight availability of Feeder Cattle continue to push all classes of Feeder Cattle to new records in sale barns which continues to push the futures higher.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures traded into technical resistance this morning and struggled to stay positive on the day. The 20-day MA has been an area on the charts that the Lean Hogs have failed at multiple times in the last week. The pork cutout has remained stronger than expected over the past couple weeks. Pork demand has been good domestically and through exports, but the big catalyst is the boxed beef market that refuses to cool off. Higher cuts of beef at the grocery store will help pork move off the shelf as consumers look for a cheaper protein source.
Corn: Corn futures traded right up to technical resistance yesterday and turned lower to finish both days this week. ProFarmer is out on their tour this week and as many have come to expect, mixed results have been found. They will be out with their official estimates at the end of the week and the market can compare to the USDA’s current yield estimate. Export demand continues to remain strong and needs to continue to chew through the record production the U.S. will see from the 2025 crop. The 2025/2026 marketing year balance sheet currently has record export demand estimated.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
Sept
379.50
3.50
CHI Wheat
Sept
498.50
4.25
KC Wheat
Sept
499.50
6.75
Soybeans
Nov
1033.75
7.50
Soy Oil
Sept
51.68
1.59
Soy Meal
Sept
287.40
0.70
Live Cattle
Oct
231.350
0.175
Feeder Cattle
August
350.550
1.650
Lean Hogs
Oct
90.150
0.025
Crude Oil
Sept
62.44
0.98
Ch Cutout
408.20
3.96
Sel Cutout
379.78
2.64
Feeder Index
344.98
2.81
Pork Cutout
116.36
0.04
Dollar Index
98.277
0.1100
DOW
44,922
10
National Corn Basis
-18.35
0.25
National Bean Basis
-44.96
0.63
Dates to Remember
August 22- Cattle on Feed
August 22- Cold Storage
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
90.150
109.550
19.400
76.800
13.350
National Cash
107.70
108.25
0.55
82.72
24.98
Index
109.53
110.02
0.49
89.71
19.82
Cutout
116.36
119.09
2.73
97.09
19.27
IA/SMN Cash
107.58
106.64
0.94
83.05
24.53
IA/SMN Weights
281.10
281.10
0.00
281.00
0.10
Slaughter
2,417,000
2,350,000
67,000
2,515,545
98,545
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
244.01
184.67
South Cash
235.27
183.45
North Steer Basis
7.50
3.71
Choice Boxes
408.20
390.02
18.18
315.55
92.65
Select Boxes
379.78
365.00
14.78
302.01
77.77
Spread
28.42
25.02
3.40
13.54
14.88
Carcass Weights
867
865
2
846
21
Slaughter
530,000
536,000
6,000
605,086
75,086
FC Index
344.98
336.03
8.95
243.99
100.99
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$235.00
$183.24
KS
$235.27
$183.45
NE
$244.01
$184.67
IA/MN
$242.21
$186.68
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 8/12/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
124,813
752
-164,376
155
384,653
486
Feeder Cattle
33,537
3,542
-17,589
1,138
91,346
1,066
Lean Hogs
110,732
1,446
-166,679
205
344,426
16
Corn
-176,114
2,364
-32,704
5,345
1,566,254
8,884
Soybeans
-35,270
30,660
-86,016
17,786
887,178
1,809
Live Cattle Markets
October Live Cattle failed to post a new contract high in the last two weeks. Resistance is at 232.750. Support is at the 20-day MA of 227.000 followed by 225.250.
Feeder Cattle Markets
September Feeder Cattle posted a new contract high today. Resistance is at the contract high of 354.550. Support is at the 20-day MA of 340.200 and then 338.100.
Lean Hogs Markets
October Lean Hogs traded into resistance again today. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 90.600. Support is at 88.525 followed by the 100-day MA of 87.850.
Corn Markets
December Corn could not hold early gains this week. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 407 3/4 and then 411. Support is at 392.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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8/19/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded on both sides of steady today as traders wait to see what the cash market trades at this week. Boxed beef continued its move higher this morning as choice was up $3.96 to $408.20 while select was up $2.64 to $379.78. Boxed beef continues to be supported by a slow kill pace this week as packers continue to help their overall margins. This Friday the USDA will release their monthly Cattle on Feed Report. Estimates ahead of the report are for cattle on feed to be down 2% compared to a year ago. Placements down nearly 9% and marketings 6% lower than 2024. More and more focus is being shifted to heifer retention and what that looks like going forward. This is evident in the bear spreads in the futures over the last week.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures set new contract highs again today as fund buying continues to propel futures to uncharted territory. Yesterday’s CME Feeder Cattle index was quoted $3.48 lower but the futures did not pay any attention. The bulk of the volume came from Texas direct sales which typically has a negative affect of the index. Cheap corn and the tight availability of Feeder Cattle continue to push all classes of Feeder Cattle to new records in sale barns which continues to push the futures higher.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures traded into technical resistance this morning and struggled to stay positive on the day. The 20-day MA has been an area on the charts that the Lean Hogs have failed at multiple times in the last week. The pork cutout has remained stronger than expected over the past couple weeks. Pork demand has been good domestically and through exports, but the big catalyst is the boxed beef market that refuses to cool off. Higher cuts of beef at the grocery store will help pork move off the shelf as consumers look for a cheaper protein source.
Corn: Corn futures traded right up to technical resistance yesterday and turned lower to finish both days this week. ProFarmer is out on their tour this week and as many have come to expect, mixed results have been found. They will be out with their official estimates at the end of the week and the market can compare to the USDA’s current yield estimate. Export demand continues to remain strong and needs to continue to chew through the record production the U.S. will see from the 2025 crop. The 2025/2026 marketing year balance sheet currently has record export demand estimated.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
August 22- Cattle on Feed
August 22- Cold Storage
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 8/12/2025
Live Cattle Markets
October Live Cattle failed to post a new contract high in the last two weeks. Resistance is at 232.750. Support is at the 20-day MA of 227.000 followed by 225.250.
Feeder Cattle Markets
September Feeder Cattle posted a new contract high today. Resistance is at the contract high of 354.550. Support is at the 20-day MA of 340.200 and then 338.100.
Lean Hogs Markets
October Lean Hogs traded into resistance again today. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 90.600. Support is at 88.525 followed by the 100-day MA of 87.850.
Corn Markets
December Corn could not hold early gains this week. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 407 3/4 and then 411. Support is at 392.