8/19/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded on both sides of steady today as traders wait to see what the cash market trades at this week. Boxed beef continued its move higher this morning as choice was up $3.96 to $408.20 while select was up $2.64 to $379.78. Boxed beef continues to be supported by a slow kill pace this week as packers continue to help their overall margins. This Friday the USDA will release their monthly Cattle on Feed Report. Estimates ahead of the report are for cattle on feed to be down 2% compared to a year ago. Placements down nearly 9% and marketings 6% lower than 2024. More and more focus is being shifted to heifer retention and what that looks like going forward. This is evident in the bear spreads in the futures over the last week.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures set new contract highs again today as fund buying continues to propel futures to uncharted territory. Yesterday’s CME Feeder Cattle index was quoted $3.48 lower but the futures did not pay any attention. The bulk of the volume came from Texas direct sales which typically has a negative affect of the index. Cheap corn and the tight availability of Feeder Cattle continue to push all classes of Feeder Cattle to new records in sale barns which continues to push the futures higher.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures traded into technical resistance this morning and struggled to stay positive on the day. The 20-day MA has been an area on the charts that the Lean Hogs have failed at multiple times in the last week. The pork cutout has remained stronger than expected over the past couple weeks. Pork demand has been good domestically and through exports, but the big catalyst is the boxed beef market that refuses to cool off. Higher cuts of beef at the grocery store will help pork move off the shelf as consumers look for a cheaper protein source.

Corn: Corn futures traded right up to technical resistance yesterday and turned lower to finish both days this week. ProFarmer is out on their tour this week and as many have come to expect, mixed results have been found. They will be out with their official estimates at the end of the week and the market can compare to the USDA’s current yield estimate. Export demand continues to remain strong and needs to continue to chew through the record production the U.S. will see from the 2025 crop. The 2025/2026 marketing year balance sheet currently has record export demand estimated.

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn Sept 379.50 3.50
CHI Wheat Sept 498.50 4.25
KC Wheat Sept 499.50 6.75
Soybeans Nov 1033.75 7.50
Soy Oil Sept 51.68 1.59
Soy Meal Sept 287.40 0.70
Live Cattle Oct 231.350 0.175
Feeder Cattle August 350.550 1.650
Lean Hogs Oct 90.150 0.025
Crude Oil Sept 62.44 0.98
Ch Cutout 408.20 3.96
Sel Cutout 379.78 2.64
Feeder Index 344.98 2.81
Pork Cutout 116.36 0.04
Dollar Index 98.277 0.1100
DOW 44,922 10
National Corn Basis -18.35 0.25
National Bean Basis -44.96 0.63

Dates to Remember

August 22- Cattle on Feed

August 22- Cold Storage

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 90.150 109.550 19.400 76.800 13.350
National Cash 107.70 108.25 0.55 82.72 24.98
Index 109.53 110.02 0.49 89.71 19.82
Cutout 116.36 119.09 2.73 97.09 19.27
IA/SMN Cash 107.58 106.64 0.94 83.05 24.53
IA/SMN Weights 281.10 281.10 0.00 281.00 0.10
Slaughter 2,417,000 2,350,000 67,000 2,515,545 98,545

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 244.01 184.67
South Cash 235.27 183.45
North Steer Basis 7.50 3.71
Choice Boxes 408.20 390.02 18.18 315.55 92.65
Select Boxes 379.78 365.00 14.78 302.01 77.77
Spread 28.42 25.02 3.40 13.54 14.88
Carcass Weights 867 865 2 846 21
Slaughter 530,000 536,000 6,000 605,086 75,086
FC Index 344.98 336.03 8.95 243.99 100.99

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM $235.00 $183.24
KS $235.27 $183.45
NE $244.01 $184.67
IA/MN $242.21 $186.68

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 8/12/2025
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 124,813 752 -164,376 155 384,653 486
Feeder Cattle 33,537 3,542 -17,589 1,138 91,346 1,066
Lean Hogs 110,732 1,446 -166,679 205 344,426 16
Corn -176,114 2,364 -32,704 5,345 1,566,254 8,884
Soybeans -35,270 30,660 -86,016 17,786 887,178 1,809

Live Cattle Markets

October Live Cattle failed to post a new contract high in the last two weeks. Resistance is at 232.750. Support is at the 20-day MA of 227.000 followed by 225.250.

Feeder Cattle Markets

September Feeder Cattle posted a new contract high today. Resistance is at the contract high of 354.550. Support is at the 20-day MA of 340.200 and then 338.100.

Lean Hogs Markets

October Lean Hogs traded into resistance again today. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 90.600. Support is at 88.525 followed by the 100-day MA of 87.850.

Corn Markets

December Corn could not hold early gains this week. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 407 3/4 and then 411. Support is at 392.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

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