8/22/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures posted new contract highs across the entire complex today, as well as a new all-time high in the February contract. Cash trade this week was steady with a week ago in the North while the South saw higher money than last week. 245 traded the majority of the cattle in the North on Wednesday, while the South waited until later in the week and received 240 to 242. Boxed beef continues its move higher. Choice is currently at $406.87 which is $7.06 higher than the same time last week. Select is at $383.85 up $15.47 on the week. The choice/select spread has narrowed up over the last week as demand for grinds and select cuts continues to remain high. The USDA released their monthly Cattle on Feed Report at 2pm this afternoon. Cattle on feed were 2% lower than the same time a year ago which was right in line with the average guess. Placements were down 6% compared to last year and were 3% higher than expected. Marketings were 94% of a year ago and right on the average trade guess. Cattle on feed in Texas are down 9% compared to 2024 as the closure of the Mexican border hampers the number of Feeder Cattle available to feedlots.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures also posted new contact and all-time highs on Friday. The nearby contracts gained over 15.000/cwt this week as demand for Feeder Cattle continues to remain strong. Cash Feeder Cattle continue to print new records across all classes of cattle as cheap feed and open pens give feedlots a reason to continue to pay records prices at sale barns. Placements for the month of July were 6% less than a year ago. Placements in the state of Texas were down a massive 25%. Placements into feedlots in Iowa were up 18%. Kansas and Nebraska were very similar to a year ago. Today’s CFTC data showed the managed money as small sellers of the Feeder Cattle complex. This is as of the close of trading on Tuesday, but is still somewhat surprising as the futures market has done nothing but move higher.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures finished the week strong. The nearby October contract closed the day 1.275 higher at 91.200, breaking through the 20-day MA and removing some overhead resistance. The cash market is beginning its seasonal slide, while the cutout was up $1.16 this morning at $113.76. Exports are lacking as weekly export data showed only 19,000 tonnes which is a four-week low. With the price of boxed beef, pork should continue to see good demand domestically as it is a cost effective protein. It will be interesting to see if the pork cutout can continue to hold its value after next weekend as Labor Day usually marks the end of grilling season.

Corn: The Corn market was watching the ProFramer crop tour very closely this week as analysts were boots on the ground collecting yield data. Their estimates for the 2025 crop were released this afternoon and showed Corn yields well below the current USDA estimate. Pro Farmer estimated the average yield for Corn at 182.7 bushels per acres vs. the current USDA estimate of 188.1. This equates to a half of a billion bushel decrease in production compared to the USDA. There have been many flash sales for export this week as the U.S. price of Corn is attractive worldwide. The USDA is currently expecting a record year of exports for the 2025/2026 marketing year, so these sales need to continue to stay on pace and meet demand goals. Technically, corn moved through some overhead resistance late this week and opened the door for higher prices in the near future.

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn Dec 411.50 0.25
CHI Wheat Dec 527.25 2.50
KC Wheat Dec 521.00 5.00
Soybeans Nov 1058.50 2.50
Soy Oil Oct 54.94 1.34
Soy Meal Oct 288.30 1.70
Live Cattle Oct 237.875 3.150
Feeder Cattle Sept 362.675 4.650
Lean Hogs Oct 91.200 1.275
Crude Oil Oct 63.77 0.25
Ch Cutout 406.87 0.99
Sel Cutout 383.85 0.25
Feeder Index 350.18 2.74
Pork Cutout 112.60 0.41
Dollar Index 97.693 0.9260
DOW 45,637 852
National Corn Basis -18.30 0.23
National Bean Basis -46.29 0.19

Dates to Remember

August 22- Cattle on Feed

August 22- Cold Storage

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 91.200 90.100 1.100 79.620 11.575
National Cash 108.35 110.37 2.02 83.36 24.99
Index 108.32 109.83 1.51 88.22 20.10
Cutout 112.60 115.18 2.58 96.43 16.17
IA/SMN Cash 109.09 110.40 1.31 82.47 26.62
IA/SMN Weights 281.10 281.10 0.00 281.10 0.00
Slaughter 2,419,000 2,408,000 11,000 2,507,446 88,446

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 245 244.43 Steady 184.67 60.33
South Cash 238 235.22 Steady 183.45 54.55
North Steer Basis 7.00 7.50 0.50 3.71 3.29
Choice Boxes 406.87 399.81 7.06 315.99 90.88
Select Boxes 383.85 368.11 15.74 302.03 81.82
Spread 23.02 31.70 8.68 13.96 9.06
Carcass Weights 866 867 1 849 17
Slaughter 547,000 530,000 17,000 608,984 61,984
FC Index 350.18 345.75 4.43 242.67 107.51

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM 238 $235.92 $183.24
KS 238 $235.22 $183.45
NE 245 $344.43 $184.67
IA/MN 245 $242.42 $186.68

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 8/19/2025
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 124,519 294 -165,653 1,277 386,783 1,754
Feeder Cattle 33,156 381 -17,666 77 91,388 782
Lean Hogs 105,768 4,964 -161,682 4,997 332,222 1,112
Corn -144,650 31,464 -57,745 25,041 1,561,974 6,703
Soybeans 3 35,273 -114,151 28,135 890,327 3,215

Live Cattle Markets

October Live Cattle posted a new contract high to end the week. Resistance is at the contract high of 238.125 and then 240.000. Support is at 230.125 followed by the 20-day MA of 228.950.

Feeder Cattle Markets

September Feeder Cattle posted a new contract high and all-time high today. Resistance is at the contract high of 363.000 and then 365.000. Support is at 350.000 followed by the 20-day MA of 344.450.

Lean Hogs Markets

October Lean Hogs traded through the 20-day MA this week. Support is at the 20-day MA of 90.525 followed by 88.600. Resistance is at the 50-day MA of 91.800.

Corn Markets

December Corn pushed through overhead resistance this week. Resistance is at the 50-day MA of 418. Support is at the 20-day MA of 406 followed by 401 1/4.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

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