8/29/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: August Live Cattle posted a new all-time high on Wednesday before there were deliveries tendered against the contract on Wednesday night. The deliveries pushed the futures lower on Thursday before posting a good recovery on Friday. Cash cattle in the North traded at 245 again this week and the South traded mostly at 242. The North has seen a steady market for the better part of a month while the South has added a few dollars every week over that same period. We have talked about the difference in cash prices between the two regions narrowing up as we head into fall, and that is exactly what has taken place. The South has narrowed the $10 difference to only $3, and the northern yards have lost a large portion of the basis premium that has been seen for most of 2025. Boxed beef continues to move higher but has lost some of its power. Choice is currently at $413.19 which is up over $6 on the week, while select is at $389.39 after adding $5.50 on the week. Slaughter this week was estimated at 565,000 head. Last week’s slaughter was revised higher to 551,000 head. The higher boxed beef markets have made the packers speed up their chains but they will be fighting a fine line of running too fast and hampering boxed beef prices and being forced to increase the cash price through competition for available cattle. Average steer and heifer weights were up four pounds this week and are now 13 pounds above a year ago.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures touched 370.000 this week before correcting over 11.000/cwt in the last three days. Cash Feeder Cattle continue to lead the charge higher as the CME Feeder Cattle index is up $15.20 compared to last Friday. Monday’s open pushed the Feeder Cattle complex limit lower initially due to Screwworm being discovered in a human in the U.S. but that did not hold a lasting impact. The September contract traded to nearly a 15.500/cwt range over the first three days of the week. The volatility within the complex is quite remarkable as the computer and algorithm traders continue to read headlines. Late this morning, Mexico’s President made comments that the country is aiming for the Mexican border to be opened by November. As encouraging as that sounds to increase supplies of Feeder Cattle in the U.S., the USDA will have the final say as to when the border is open and the wishes and hopes of the Mexican government will have no bearing on the open date.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hogs finished the week on a strong note. New contract highs for all contract months except for the nearby October. The cash market continues to trade steady in the $108 range. Open interest has increased 16,000 contracts since last Friday as hog producers can lock in profits out into 2026. Weekly exports showed a nine week high of sales at 42,000 tonnes. Of that total, Mexico was responsible for 27,000 tonnes. Even with a positive export report and beef continuing to remain high, the pork cutout continues to remain steady. In the last 10 days,  the pork cutout price has only moved a maximum of $2, continuing to stay between $111-$112.

Corn: Corn futures finished the week sharply higher, breaking through technical resistance and posting new highs for the month of August. The futures fell below the 20-day MA yesterday but finished higher and well above that support level. Today, the 50-day MA was taken out along with last week’s high and that spurred more fund buying. There is starting to be a sense of doubt that the average yield will actually be as high as the USDA has estimated. Exports continue to run at an outstanding pace as well. Currently, the U.S. has the second largest amount of sales on the books in the last six years as the U.S. remains very competitive in the world market from a price standpoint. It is important to remember that it is estimated the U.S. will see a record amount of exports during the 2025/2026 marketing year which starts on Monday. The USDA added the extra export demand due to an increased number of bushels which would lower price. If we move through the fall and see U.S. production revised lower, it will most likely come with a decrease in export demand as well.