8/8/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished the week under heavy pressure as the cash market did not meet expectations set earlier this week. Live Cattle futures gained over 9.500/cwt over five days coming into today’s session and could not hold those gains heading into the weekend. Cash in the North was mostly 242 live and 380 dressed. This is $3 lower than last week and well below the expectations of 250 that many had their sights set on. Most packers in the North had pulled their bids by early this afternoon, while the bids in the South were decreased $2 to 235. Basis in North was sharply lower this week. An $8 positive basis is still very strong for this time of year, but well off of the records that have been set over the last two months. Showlists continue to grow larger as we head into the fall which is also hurting the cash market. The packers have gained some inventory over the past few weeks and with the severe kill cuts that have taken place, there was not much competition to buy cattle. Boxed beef has benefited from those kill cuts and has gained nearly $14 this week. Choice was $1.16 lower this morning at $377.78 and select was $0.96 higher at $354.71.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures traded through the 350.000 level yesterday before finishing the week limit lower. Unconfirmed rumors of screwworm being discovered in Oklahoma escalated the selling after a mildly lower open. Feeder Cattle futures had gained over 18.000/cwt during the last five days as the futures market put in new contract and all time highs. Today’s move lower felt like fund liquidation. Whether the rumors of screwworm being found in the U.S. are true or false, the funds have pushed this market to levels no one thought were possible, and when the managed money decides it wants out and the market is high enough, the market sees days like today. Cash Feeder Cattle continue to surge higher and set new records. The CME Feeder Cattle index has not moved higher with them. Over the course of the last six trading days, the index has only gained $1.32. Currently at a all-time record high of $337.21, the index was nearly $12 below the futures market. Today’s lower futures move helped narrow that spread. Today’s limit lower finish will bring expanded limits of 13.750/cwt on Monday.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hogs finished today narrowly mixed after a good start to the week. The futures started the week higher but on Wednesday the fall contracts turned lower and finished the week nearly unchanged. The deferred contracts were able to hold their ground as February, April and May were able to finish this week 1.500 to 2.000 higher than the close a week ago. The pork cutout continues to trade in the $5 range from $114-$119 that it has been stuck in for four weeks. Weekly exports were down from the prior week at 31,000 tonnes but continue to stay above the 10-week average of 28,000 tonnes. Cash did trend higher this week even with the slaughter numbers being 7,000 head below last week’s pace. The August contract expires next Thursday and currently there is a 1.100 spread between the Lean Hog index and the August contract.

Corn: December Corn futures posted a new contract low this week before finding support and gaining nearly 15 cents. Corn exports continue to remain strong as the U.S. currently has the second largest total of new crop sales on the books in the last five years. Even with good demand, the massive crop that is currently being raised is keeping the carryout high. Good weather continues to persist throughout the corn belt and the forecasts don’t predict a change. The USDA will release their monthly WASDE report on Tuesday at 11am. The average trade guess ahead of the report is looking for an increase of over three bushels an acre for corn. This would keep the carryout for next year under two billion bushels, but not by much. There will be some changes to demand, especially exports, that will lower that carryout in the futures, but any further increases in production will keep the carryout elevated.